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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 14h

"Putin couldn't do a better job" of attacking America.

How do we know this isn't Putin's doing?

Reposted by Motorhead

Thomas Hansen @thomashansen.bsky.social · 16h

Elon Musk's dad, Errol Musk, was asked about allegations that he forced a kiss on his stepdaughter.

JFC, it’s almost like listening to Elon lie about robotaxis on earnings calls, only so much worse..

Ht @bradmunchen.bsky.social

Note: Video is @ 1.1 speed, due to bsky limit

#ElonQ
$TSLAQ

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 3d

Not if you're a nimble trader ahead of key events. But, it's still the hardest stock I've ever traded.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 5d

$TSLA will see a huge pull-back in demand in US sales from Q4 after a rush for EVs in the US in Q3 (ahead of the $7.5K subsidy expiration).

And ZEV credit sales (49% of 1H 2025 EPS) are also gone from Q4. $TSLA is screwed.

Full report here: open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...

5/5 END

The Insignificance of Tesla's Q3 Deliveries and Earnings

History shows that the blowback from pulled-forward demand is always worse than the run-up ahead of it. The US is Tesla's biggest market in revenue terms, but will drop from Q4.

tinyurl.com

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 5d

Germany ended its $7,000+ subsidies for BEVs in Dec-2023, but company cars lost them first in Sep-2023.

Germany reinstated 2 subsidy programs to prop up BEV sales since then, yet still sees BEV sales down 5% vs Aug-YTD 2024 when the $7K subsidies were in place.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 5d

China cut its BEV subsidies in July 2019 & sales plunged ever since then, but recovered after subsidies were reintroduced in 2020.

From Apr-2024, China added more subsidies ($2K), which helped, but are being partially reduced from 2016.

Bad for $TSLA.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 5d

Hong Kong announced an end to EV subsidies in 2016, which caused $TSLA sales to surge, before going to zero.

Hong Kong reinstated EV subsidies after this drubbing of EV sales.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 5d

Tesla's US prices just rose by 15% ($7,500) due to Trump's end to EV tax subsidies on 9/30.

$TSLA Q3 US sales rose by 30%+ due to "pulled-forward" demand. The "blow back" will be worse.

Examples why 🧵:

Japan never recovered after its VAT hike from 3% to 5% in Apr-1997.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 5d

Love your channel. Have lots to tell you. Please DM me.

Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 6d

Tesla's Q3 deliveries beat the sandbagged Street est by 11%, my est by 2%, & Troy's by 3%.

Huge inventory clearance of 50K should = strong FCF.

But the pullback in Q4 should be vicious due to lower sales & earnings, given no more subsidies in the US.

bradmunchen.substack.com/p/teslas-q3-...

Tesla's Q3 Deliveries Beat Consensus Estimates, as Expected

Results were 11% higher than Tesla's IR-compiled analyst estimates 6 days ago, but as flagged in my report 2 days ago, Tesla's IR consensus was way too low.

bradmunchen.substack.com

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 8d

With a $1 trillion bonus on the table for shareholders to approve on Nov-6th, Musk will surely pump Q3 earnings ahead of that, as EV demand in the US is strong ahead of the $7,500 subsidy ending tomorrow.

But the blowback will be larger than Q3's gain.

bradmunchen.substack.com/p/the-insign...

The Insignificance of Tesla's Q3 Deliveries and Earnings

History shows that the blowback from pulled-forward demand is always worse than the run-up ahead of it. The US is Tesla's biggest market in revenue terms, but will drop from Q4.

bradmunchen.substack.com

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 8d

I'm sure Tesla bribed the right people in Canada.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 8d

Unfortunately, Jared Birchall is still employed at Musk's family office.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 8d

Trade mark that term ASAP. 👍

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Reposted by Motorhead

Ezra Levin ❌👑 @ezralevin.bsky.social · 8d

AIPAC messes in Dem primaries and also bankrolled 109 GOP election-deniers. No self-respecting Dem candidate should meet with them let alone take their money. If you want a Dem Party that fights back, get AIPAC out of our primaries - and support candidates brave enough to take them on.

Kat Abughazaleh @katmabu.bsky.social · 8d

It’s official: AIPAC is trying to buy my election to keep me out of Congress.

Apparently, I’m a “dangerous detractor”... by believing Palestinians (like myself and my family) deserve basic human rights.

But we’re not going to let AIPAC win.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 8d

Begging shareholders for a $1 trillion bonus on his own platform is so cringe that my question is: why?

He owns $317BN worth of $TSLA. Why does he need a $1 trillion "incentive" to grow it by 7x?

Musk is a twisted, greedy fuck who's given less than 0.2% of his wealth to charity.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 9d

Tesla is up 31% vs the 17% spike in the Nasdaq 100 index since Musk started his "Trillion-dollar-bonus" stock pump on Sep-5th.

Wait till shareholders give it to him on Nov-6th & the stock stops being pumped ("sell the news").

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 9d

I've seen "pulled-forward" and "pushed-back" demand for auto demand due to the removal of subsidies for over 2 decades. You have no idea how much Tesla's main market (the US, but also Turkey), will "push back" in Q4.

Japan, Denmark, Hong Kong, & Germany all show that the "push-back" was worse.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 9d

Tesla is juicing as much as possible from the US $7,500 EV tax credit before it ends on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, the Model 3 is "Available Today" and the Model Y is available between "September and October".

Tesla will likely see losses in Q4 2025 and thereafter.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 9d

Just in case there was any doubt, Musk is still persona non grata in Trump's White House and D.C. politics.

8pmnews.com/trumps-close...

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 10d

💯 I almost vomited when I saw that. Also, I couldn't believe that he had dinner with Trump earlier this year.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 10d

She is insane.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 10d

Germany had 40% tax breaks for BEVs in 2024 and a 75% tax break from Jun-30th, which is even bigger than the €6K subsidy that ended in Dec-2023.

In spite of this, Jan-Aug 2025 German BEV sales are 5.3% lower than Jan-Aug 2023 BEV sales.

It seems like you're the fool, Josh. 😂

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 11d

I used to watch Bill Maher every week, without fail.

Then I realized that I've gone over a year without watching one episode.

Funny how that happened.

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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 11d

On Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings call, Musk said Tesla had made "demonstrable progress" on autonomous driving, "that a lot of naysayers said we would not achieve. And our naysayers are sitting there with egg on their face."

What eggs? 😂

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