Bryan Culbertson 🥄
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bryanculbertson.com
Bryan Culbertson 🥄
@bryanculbertson.com
he/him

Living the car-free life in Oakland, CA. Don't make me drive.

https://mastodon.social/@bryanculbertson
This block is still under construction so the paint comes later. There was temporary plastic posts and k-rail here before to indicate the bike lane during construction
January 12, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Good point. Temporary cones in the meantime would have helped make it clear.
January 11, 2026 at 9:52 PM
The posts were doing the drivers a favor by making it really clear where to safely park. The posts made it better for everyone.
January 11, 2026 at 7:08 PM
Worry is if tech progress stalls then CA gets stuck at 95% renewables + 5% gas peaker and you can't build a nuclear plant in that economic environment

50% nuclear and 50% renewable on the other hand would get to 100% carbon-free with current tech, however CA has too much solar already for that path
January 10, 2026 at 11:54 PM
The argument above model is making is that if you assume current solar, storage and grid tech to get to 100% carbon-free, then that will be cheaper to dismantle some of the renewables we already built to make 50% nuclear pencil

So this is kinda a now or never moment for nuclear in CA
January 10, 2026 at 11:37 PM
I agree, especially with how quickly storage tech is advancing every month.
January 10, 2026 at 11:31 PM
I doubt it would be cheaper to build new nuclear in CA, just keeping the current one running requires billion+ subsidies

But I could see an agument that extra expense is worth it for diversity of sources as a hedge against a disaster where US loses access to China manufacturing or something
January 10, 2026 at 9:53 PM
That model compares:
1. 100% solar+8h batteries
2. 100% wind+8h batteries
3. 50% nuclear + 50% solar+storage

And concludes that scenario 3 is cheaper

It does not compare the actual plan that CA has which is a mixture of solar, wind, hydro, batteries, bio/h2 peaker, and grid improvements
January 10, 2026 at 9:37 PM
A biomass or H2 peaker replacing a methane peaker is a much cheaper way of handling the occasional reliability issues than a nuclear peaker
January 10, 2026 at 9:24 PM
Some Nuclear (or "Clean Firm" as that post calls it) is economical in some climates like Germany, but it just is not competitive in CA where solar+wind+storage is cheaper

For the last 5% in CA to get to a 100% reliable grid, an always on Nuclear plant will never pencil as a peaker
January 10, 2026 at 9:19 PM
True, I wonder if the majority of these nuclear vs renewables social media fights are basically just about Germany :)
January 10, 2026 at 6:36 PM
The cold dark places like Norway and Iceland normally already have cheap hydro or geo power. There are a couple places where Nuclear will pencil of course, but majority of the world's carbon is emitted in areas with access to cheaper forms of electricity than nuclear
January 10, 2026 at 6:21 PM