New paper out: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti.... We study (using DiD) effects of 1968 Poor People's Campaign on election outcomes. Overall these peaceful protests had no effects on elections (contrasting prior civil rights era findings) but they hurt Ds in the South and helped them in the West.

Bottom line:
🚭 Our findings suggest comprehensive, well-enforced bans are an effective tool in shaping smoking behavior.
🧵 8/8

#PublicHealth #TobaccoControl #Brazil #SmokeFree #Economics #Policy #Research
@zew.de @uspoficial.bsky.social @economiausp.bsky.social

🌎What does this mean beyond Brazil?

➡️ Anti-smoking policies face unique challenges and remain underexplored in developing countries.

➡️ Many European countries still allow smoking lounges or exclude outdoor/partial spaces from bans.

🧵 7/8

Why young adults? Initiation and early-stage addiction are crucial windows for policy impact.

✅ Increased quitting rates — especially among recent starters
✅ Lower initiation

➡️ We also show how to decompose prevalence outcomes and study pre-trends in these settings.

🧵 6/8

Importantly, enforcement is key ❗

Where enforcement was weak, the policy had no significant impact.

➡️A clear message for policymakers: laws on paper are not enough!

🧵 5/8

Our key finding:

🚭 In places with strong enforcement, the bans led to an 18% reduction in smoking prevalence among young adults within 4 years!

🧵 4/8

Between 2009–2013, several Brazilian states and state capitals implemented strict bans covering all enclosed/partially enclosed public spaces.

➡️ No smoking lounges
➡️ Enforced compliance

🧵 3/8

Brazil is a global success story in tobacco control.

📉From 18% in 2008 to 12.6% in 2019, smoking prevalence has steadily declined.

But have smoke-free policies contributed to this? We investigated. 👇
🧵 2/8

🚭 Publication alert!
Are smoking bans effective in shaping smoking behavior?

New paper w/ @paulapereda.bsky.social in the Journal of Development Economics explores Brazil’s experience with smoke-free policies, uncovering key mechanisms.
doi.org/10.1016/j.jd...

#Econsky #PublicHealth #Brazil
🧵 1/8

Bottom line:

🚭 Our findings suggest comprehensive, well-enforced bans are an effective tool in shaping smoking behavior.
🧵 8/8

#Econsky #PublicHealth #TobaccoControl #Brazil #SmokeFree #Economics #Policy #Research
@zew.de @uspoficial.bsky.social @economiausp.bsky.social

Why young adults? Initiation and early-stage addiction are crucial windows for policy impact.

✅ Increased quitting rates — especially among recent starters
✅ Lower initiation

➡️ We also show how to decompose prevalence outcomes and study pre-trends in these settings.

🧵 6/8

Importantly, enforcement is key ❗
Where enforcement was weak, the policy had no significant impact.
A clear message for policymakers: laws on paper are not enough!

🧵 5/8

Our key finding:
🚭 In places with strong enforcement, the bans led to an 18% reduction in smoking prevalence among young adults within 4 years!

🧵 4/8

Between 2009–2013, several Brazilian states and state capitals implemented strict bans covering all enclosed/partially enclosed public spaces.
➡️ No smoking lounges
➡️ Enforced compliance

🧵 3/8

Brazil is a global success story in tobacco control.
📉 From 18% in 2008 to 12.6% in 2019, smoking prevalence has steadily declined.

But have smoke-free policies contributed to this? We investigated. 👇
🧵 2/8