Carl Müller-Crepon
@carlmc.bsky.social
Human, Learner, Voyager, Citizen. Polisci research on the state, development, and conflict. Assistant Professor @ LSE Department of Government. Previously Oxford and ETH Zurich. https://carlmueller-crepon.org
The book was the result of great teamwork. It would not have been possible without the fantastic team at the International Conflict Research Group at ETH Zurich, the support of the @erc.europa.eu, the participants of two book workshops, and many discussants and audiences! Thank you all so, so much!
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
The book was the result of great teamwork. It would not have been possible without the fantastic team at the International Conflict Research Group at ETH Zurich, the support of the @erc.europa.eu, the participants of two book workshops, and many discussants and audiences! Thank you all so, so much!
Lastly, we show that potential border change due to alien rule and/or ethnic division increases the risk for minorities to be targeted by state-led campaigns of ethnic cleansing. Driving both, nationalism significantly reshaped the geography of state borders and ethnic groups in Europe and beyond.
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Lastly, we show that potential border change due to alien rule and/or ethnic division increases the risk for minorities to be targeted by state-led campaigns of ethnic cleansing. Driving both, nationalism significantly reshaped the geography of state borders and ethnic groups in Europe and beyond.
Border changes is often preceded by wars within or between states. Digging into their drivers, we present strong evidence for the lasting impact of nationalist “Golden Ages”, past episodes of (perceived) unification and home rule, and minority backlash against modernization through railroads.
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Border changes is often preceded by wars within or between states. Digging into their drivers, we present strong evidence for the lasting impact of nationalist “Golden Ages”, past episodes of (perceived) unification and home rule, and minority backlash against modernization through railroads.
We use historical data on state borders, ethnic geography, and conflicts to test the argument for Europe post-1815 and globally since 1945. We find that nationalism powered changes in state size by redrawing state borders along ethnic lines, thus explaining the deviation from Tilly’s model.
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
We use historical data on state borders, ethnic geography, and conflicts to test the argument for Europe post-1815 and globally since 1945. We find that nationalism powered changes in state size by redrawing state borders along ethnic lines, thus explaining the deviation from Tilly’s model.
In particular: political division of ethnic groups➡️unification nationalism; alien rule of ethnic minorities➡️separatism; division & alien rule➡️irredentism
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
In particular: political division of ethnic groups➡️unification nationalism; alien rule of ethnic minorities➡️separatism; division & alien rule➡️irredentism
Answer: Nationalism and its state-transforming effects. Ethnic nationalism demands the congruence of the state and the ethnic nation, which leads to a clear expectation: State-nation incongruence increases the risk of conflict and border change.
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Answer: Nationalism and its state-transforming effects. Ethnic nationalism demands the congruence of the state and the ethnic nation, which leads to a clear expectation: State-nation incongruence increases the risk of conflict and border change.
We start with Tilly’s classical model of bellicist state formation which would expect there to be fewer and fewer states that grow ever larger. Yet, empirically, we observe an increase in the number of states and a decline in their size since the 19th century in Europe and Globally – why?
December 9, 2025 at 5:42 PM
We start with Tilly’s classical model of bellicist state formation which would expect there to be fewer and fewer states that grow ever larger. Yet, empirically, we observe an increase in the number of states and a decline in their size since the 19th century in Europe and Globally – why?
🚨 📖 “Nationalism and the Transformation of the State” is out with CUP! I’m so happy to conclude 6 years of research with Lars-Erik Cederman, Luc Girardin, Yannick Pengl and many others like that!
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
December 9, 2025 at 5:36 PM
🚨 📖 “Nationalism and the Transformation of the State” is out with CUP! I’m so happy to conclude 6 years of research with Lars-Erik Cederman, Luc Girardin, Yannick Pengl and many others like that!
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
The book is the result of great teamwork. It would not have been possible without the fantastic team at the International Conflict Research Group at ETH Zurich, the support of the @erc.europa.eu, the participants of two book workshops, and many discussants and audiences! Thank you all so, so much!
December 9, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The book is the result of great teamwork. It would not have been possible without the fantastic team at the International Conflict Research Group at ETH Zurich, the support of the @erc.europa.eu, the participants of two book workshops, and many discussants and audiences! Thank you all so, so much!
Here is a short project description for those interested:
December 6, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Here is a short project description for those interested:
🚨 The Ethnic Politics of Nature Protection in Africa: New paper with Stephen Dawson, @felixhaass.bsky.social and Aksel Sundström! We find that politically included groups get shielded from the local costs of establishing natural parks. Out now at @thejop.bsky.social shorturl.at/tm78R
November 28, 2025 at 2:35 PM
🚨 The Ethnic Politics of Nature Protection in Africa: New paper with Stephen Dawson, @felixhaass.bsky.social and Aksel Sundström! We find that politically included groups get shielded from the local costs of establishing natural parks. Out now at @thejop.bsky.social shorturl.at/tm78R
🎉 I am so very happy that I was awarded an ERC Starting Grant for my project BORDERS: Border Change and Local Development in Europe and Beyond. My (future) team and I will investigate the mechanisms underlying the effects of border change on development in historical Europe and worldwide. #ERCStG 🎉
September 4, 2025 at 12:47 PM
🎉 I am so very happy that I was awarded an ERC Starting Grant for my project BORDERS: Border Change and Local Development in Europe and Beyond. My (future) team and I will investigate the mechanisms underlying the effects of border change on development in historical Europe and worldwide. #ERCStG 🎉
Though to be clear, given the number of allegations against Kreissler it seems quite likely to me that he plagiarised Tom Lehrer…
July 27, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Though to be clear, given the number of allegations against Kreissler it seems quite likely to me that he plagiarised Tom Lehrer…
Also note that the paper pays most attention the sharp change in strategies of itinerant rule across the Great Interregnum 1250-73 in order to avoid drawing inferences from sweeping comparisons between the 10th and 15th centuries.
April 30, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Also note that the paper pays most attention the sharp change in strategies of itinerant rule across the Great Interregnum 1250-73 in order to avoid drawing inferences from sweeping comparisons between the 10th and 15th centuries.
We totally agree -- the visualization of the all itineraries is only to give a general overview over the data. We will make the data interactively available such that one can plot individual emperors or even just years similar to the below examples from the paper.
April 30, 2025 at 8:16 PM
We totally agree -- the visualization of the all itineraries is only to give a general overview over the data. We will make the data interactively available such that one can plot individual emperors or even just years similar to the below examples from the paper.
3. While the impact of techn. change and the growth of centralized institutions would be fascinating to study, they cannot explain the stark discontinuity in rulers' destinations across the interregnum. Stopping in 1400 does not alter the gist of this finding.
April 30, 2025 at 8:09 PM
3. While the impact of techn. change and the growth of centralized institutions would be fascinating to study, they cannot explain the stark discontinuity in rulers' destinations across the interregnum. Stopping in 1400 does not alter the gist of this finding.
Thank you Hein, also for your comments in Zurich! In case this is interesting, our Appendix now includes a long list of historical polities in Europe and beyond, coding whether their rulers were itinerant or sedentary (excerpt w/ France below):
April 29, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Thank you Hein, also for your comments in Zurich! In case this is interesting, our Appendix now includes a long list of historical polities in Europe and beyond, coding whether their rulers were itinerant or sedentary (excerpt w/ France below):
🚨 Very excited that our paper on *Rulers on the Road* has been cond. accepted at the AJPS @ajpseditor.bsky.social. We analyze emperors' strategies of itinerant rule in the Holy Roman Empire 919-1519. Fun working with @claranw.bsky.social, @andrejkokkonen.bsky.social & Jørgen Møller shorturl.at/Spm7z
April 29, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🚨 Very excited that our paper on *Rulers on the Road* has been cond. accepted at the AJPS @ajpseditor.bsky.social. We analyze emperors' strategies of itinerant rule in the Holy Roman Empire 919-1519. Fun working with @claranw.bsky.social, @andrejkokkonen.bsky.social & Jørgen Møller shorturl.at/Spm7z
Isnt Anti-woke only the entry-drug here? Trump, Musk & co should be taken as straight-up white supremacists at this point. … see eg www.thehandbasket.co/p/nazis-musk...
February 18, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Isnt Anti-woke only the entry-drug here? Trump, Musk & co should be taken as straight-up white supremacists at this point. … see eg www.thehandbasket.co/p/nazis-musk...
Overleaf seems to be down -- anyone knows what is happening? Seems to be not only me...
December 3, 2024 at 12:29 PM
Overleaf seems to be down -- anyone knows what is happening? Seems to be not only me...
good thing I regularly checkout my overleaf projects!!
December 3, 2024 at 12:21 PM
good thing I regularly checkout my overleaf projects!!
🚨 UCL Conflict and Change PhD Workshop 2025 Call for Papers, deadline 8 Dec. Apply, it’s a fantastic workshop and crowd! t.co/rMWGimGtlw
November 19, 2024 at 9:34 AM
🚨 UCL Conflict and Change PhD Workshop 2025 Call for Papers, deadline 8 Dec. Apply, it’s a fantastic workshop and crowd! t.co/rMWGimGtlw
🚨 New research paper: *Rulers on the Road*. We map emperors’ itinerant rule in the Holy Roman Empire from 719 to 1519 and shed light on how they projected power without centralized bureaucracies. Very fun project with @claranw.bsky.social @andrejkokkonen.bsky.social & Jørgen Møller shorturl.at/npKQ4
April 29, 2024 at 10:23 AM
🚨 New research paper: *Rulers on the Road*. We map emperors’ itinerant rule in the Holy Roman Empire from 719 to 1519 and shed light on how they projected power without centralized bureaucracies. Very fun project with @claranw.bsky.social @andrejkokkonen.bsky.social & Jørgen Møller shorturl.at/npKQ4
🚨 How do states and ethnic groups shape each other? Two new articles of mine in the AJPS explore this issue – I’m very happy that they were both published online over the weekend! Thread 🧵 doi.org/10.1111/ajps... and doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
March 4, 2024 at 9:04 AM
🚨 How do states and ethnic groups shape each other? Two new articles of mine in the AJPS explore this issue – I’m very happy that they were both published online over the weekend! Thread 🧵 doi.org/10.1111/ajps... and doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
We didn't run the survey experiment again, so we don't know exactly. But to the extent that our results mirror survey data on Ukrainians' support for government & military, opinions seem to be rather stable. See, e.g., Gallup survey from Jul and Aug 2023 news.gallup.com/poll/512621/...
October 20, 2023 at 12:14 PM
We didn't run the survey experiment again, so we don't know exactly. But to the extent that our results mirror survey data on Ukrainians' support for government & military, opinions seem to be rather stable. See, e.g., Gallup survey from Jul and Aug 2023 news.gallup.com/poll/512621/...