Carl Müller-Crepon
@carlmc.bsky.social
3K followers 1K following 270 posts
Human, Learner, Voyager, Citizen. Polisci research on the state, development, and conflict. Assistant Professor @ LSE Department of Government. Previously Oxford and ETH Zurich. https://carlmueller-crepon.org
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Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
tomwestland.bsky.social
CALL FOR PAPERS
A workshop at LSE next April on 'Uses and Abuses of the Murdock Atlas in Social Science Research'. We're looking for cross-disciplinary engagement to think critically about what this widely used source means, what it can & can't tell us. Submit by Nov 14
www.lse.ac.uk/economic-his...
Uses and abuses of the Murdock Atlas in social science research
www.lse.ac.uk
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
jonathanhopkin.bsky.social
This sets me thinking if the current pattern concentration of wealth is a key contributor to authoritarianism because it means there are monopolies that are very sensitive to political pressure and few enough of them that you can blackmail them one by one
404media.co
New: Apple just removed ICEBlock, the app for reporting sightings of ICE, from its App Store after DOJ pressure. ICEBlock's developer tells 404 Media "we are determined to fight this."

"Capitulating to an authoritarian regime is never the right move."

www.404media.co/iceblock-own...
ICEBlock Owner After Apple Removes App: ‘We Are Determined to Fight This’
Apple removed ICEBlock reportedly after direct pressure from Department of Justice officials. “I am incredibly disappointed by Apple's actions today. Capitulating to an authoritarian regime is never t...
www.404media.co
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
pavisuri.bsky.social
I hope Starmer doesn’t retreat from the tone he struck yesterday. Lesson from the U.S.: the far right will accuse you of everything they already do. The shamelessness IS a tactic. Biden simply retreated from engaging. But people need to keep hearing a version of what starmer said. Every Single Day.
iandunt.bsky.social
People often claim it's a mistake to call far-right figures racist. But it's extremely telling how much they hate being called racist. Farage doesn't welcome it. He is afraid of it. And he has benefited from people's reticence about using it to describe his policies.
twlldun.bsky.social
Harry Cole here, suggesting that because someone in Utah shot Charlie Kirk 3 weeks ago, Keir Starmer shouldn’t be nasty about Nigel Farage in the U.K.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
risabrooks12.bsky.social
It's easy to see this speech as just weirdly performative, but there's a lot more—and a lot worse—going on here.

The meeting & speeches are part of a larger project aimed at promoting the military leadership’s partisan alignment with the administration.

How? 1/
atrupar.com
Hegseth: "If the words I'm speaking today are making your heart sink, they you should do the honorable thing and resign."
carlmc.bsky.social
Even more than set of beliefs, they might even strive for a set of *aspirations*
vermontgmg.bsky.social
My general belief is that Dems need to spend more time thinking about what they believe and less about what they think some imaginary swing voters want them to believe.

Political strategy will stem from an authentic set of beliefs.
perrybaconjr.bsky.social
This was revealing. Worth reading. The basic demand is that Coates spend less time thinking/writing his true feelings and more time playing political strategist. Klein asks him over and over him to do Dem strategy; he says no, over and over. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/o...
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
florianfoos.bsky.social
Looks like a big win for Maia Sandu‘s PAS in Moldova today, probably on course for an absolute majority of seats, similar to 2021. Good news for Moldova‘s EU accession. 🇲🇩🗳️
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
monicamarks.bsky.social
An outstanding interview. Patrick Iber of Dissent Magazine has interviewed the legendary Polish political scientist Adam Przeworski about de-democratisation in the USA, and what lessons he’s gleaned from Chile, Peru & beyond.

Iber’s questions are stellar. Przeworski’s answers, chillingly candid.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
luqmanabuelfoul.bsky.social
The lineup for this term's @lsegovernment.bsky.social Contentious Politics Workshop has been finalised! Join us in-person or via Zoom on Wednesdays to discuss mobilisation, repression, protest framing, memory and more. DM for Zoom links and our mailing list!
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
vcharnysh.bsky.social
We will be updating this post, so reach out if you study HPE and are on the market this year.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
vcharnysh.bsky.social
Looking for rising stars in Historical Political Economy? 🌍📚
Check out this year’s job market candidates: www.broadstreet.blog/p/hpe-candid...
HPE candidates on the job market
Job market season is here.
www.broadstreet.blog
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
tompepinsky.com
The mainstream news environment.

Page 1: arguments at a suburban Miami town council

Page 24: Ted Cruz calling the FCC a mafioso, US attorney forced out, Pentagon demands no investigative journalism
Page 1 of the NYT Page 24 of the NYT
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
sumitra.bsky.social
i don’t think people on bluesky understand the severity of this situation.

i woke up to literally hundreds of texts from friends and family thinking about either moving back home to india or applying to other countries for jobs. this includes me.
gergely.pragmaticengineer.com
Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad.

One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
ccavaille.bsky.social
It is the time of the year when I tell you about my favorite post-doc ever 👇 Unless you are allergic to the French, this one sits up there with the Nuffield postdoc (life style, productivity, interdisciplinary stimulation). Share widely! Apply! #poliscky

www.iast.fr/research-fel...
Research Fellowships
Each year, IAST invites applications for post-doctoral Research Fellowships, which offer candidates an opportunity to devote themselves full-time to their research at the start of their careers. Fello...
www.iast.fr
carlmc.bsky.social
Huge congrats to @sarahbrierley.bsky.social for being awarded the Future Leaders Award from @ukri.org !! So well earned 🎉
lsegovernment.bsky.social
Congratulations to Dr Sarah Brierley who was awarded a
@ukri.org Future Leaders Fellowship for her project, #Political #Finance in #Africa.

The fellowship provides long-term support which enables fellows to tackle ambitious multidisciplinary questions.

www.lse.ac.uk/news/latest-...
The scheme aims to develop the next wave of world-class research.
Under this fellowship, Dr Brierley will launch a project on the financing of politics within democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa, investigating pressures for legislative reform
www.lse.ac.uk
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
janinadill.bsky.social
Politically the most important para is the one reaffirming third states' duty to prevent genocide. It was triggered by the ICJ provisional measures orders on 26.01.2024. The "serious risk of genocide" was clear then. States should have acted then, they must act now.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
janinadill.bsky.social
The three most damning paras in the UN Report alleging that Israel is perpetrating genocide in Gaza: Siege starvation, attacks on health care, direct targeting of children as patterns that cannot be explained except if group destruction is one animating purpose.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
lotemhalevy.bsky.social
This year at APSA, several mentors and friends reminded me of something worth sharing: some work just takes longer.

It doesn't matter how much you work. The discipline doesn't always reward it, but it doesn't mean it's not important. In a career with so much randomness, ask the questions you want.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
kunkakom.bsky.social
All of us—including myself—should publish fewer but better papers.
And we should spend more of our time on scrutinizing existing work, so we know which claims can be trusted. But that's hard work with little recognition.
Thanks @sophieehill.bsky.social for doing it. Impressive 🕵️‍♀️ work. Fun to read.
sophieehill.bsky.social
Blog post: github.com/sophieehill/...

TL;DR: There are a LOT of errors/inconsistencies in the results reported in this paper (estimates outside CIs, sign errors, duplicates, asymmetric CIs). Even in the abstract itself!

This suggests manual editing of results tables.

Which is not good...

🧵
Summary
Unfortunately, this example is not an isolated issue.

Across 9 appendix tables with 256 regression coefficients, I find:

5 cases of estimates outside their reported confidence interval
46 duplicates (i.e. estimate/CI combinations with an identical match in the same table)
At least 20 cases of asymmetric confidence intervals, which cannot be explained as rounding errors
17 values rounded to 4 decimal places (all others to 3 decimal places), indicating manual editing of tables
Over 50% of all estimates and confidence intervals are multiples of 0.008
It is difficult to diagnose exactly what is going on without access to the underlying data and code.

However, two broad conclusions can be drawn:

There are many errors and inconsistencies in the results which appear to be the result of manual editing.
There are strange patterns in the results which, if genuine, should have been noted and explained by the authors.
carlmc.bsky.social
Thank you so much Giacomo!!!
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
florianfoos.bsky.social
Abysmal idea:In times of increasing extremism in Germany & abroad, we need to strengthen the study of politics, not weaken it beyond recognition. Cologne is one of the best departments in Germany with colleagues doing world-class research on relevant topics. Hope the NRW government will think again!
stefanmueller.bsky.social
The University of Cologne plans drastic cuts to its Political Science department, potentially abolishing the MSc in Political Science and eliminating the professorships in IR and Comparative Politics. This would severely weaken the social sciences at @unicologne.bsky.social.
Petition (de/en) ⤵️
Petition unterschreiben
Keine WiSo ohne PoWi! Für eine starke Politikwissenschaft im Bachelor & Master
https://www.change.org/p/keine-wiso-ohne-powi-für-eine-starke-politikwissenschaft-im-bachelor-master
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
sophieehill.bsky.social
My thread on the Neurology paper on sweeteners & cognitive health: skywriter.blue/pages/did:pl...

And a follow-up thread on some weird patterns in the Appendix tables: skywriter.blue/pages/did:pl...

Collated by Skywriter onto a web page for easier reading!