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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 8d

👀 (given the remarkable robustness of BART as a static prediction method)

arXiv stat.ME Methodology @statme-bot.bsky.social · 8d

Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu: Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24634

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 8d

Very well said. Re (2), a version of this is in the Korn and Graubard "Analysis of Health Surveys" textbook that explains how, under misspecification (and all models are somewhat misspecified), the weighted (population) fit is what we want rather than the sample fit.

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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 15d

Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social‬ present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 25d

Agreed — nice round up of very well informed perspectives. I found Raleigh’s analysis especially convincing but all perspectives were thought provoking.

Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · 25d

Credit where credit is due. This Politico symposium on political violence is good.

10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America

Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?

www.politico.com

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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Oliver Hanney @olihanney.bsky.social · Sep 2

Back to teaching or studying economics at university this September?

@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2

Skepticism toward vax and modern medicine is fairly widespread publicly as I’ve seen, and is tied up with antipathy toward “experts” (“do your own research” a la Aaron Rodgers), which universities embody. There is the woke issue sure, but there is also antipathy toward expertise to contend with.

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2

Let’s take the area where there has been the most heat: vaccinations. The MRNA vax researcher doesn’t need to change what they do. It’s a problem of educating the public that this is useful stuff. The question is how to do that effectively.

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2

Seems that a field that has taken an especially large hit in the current context is biomedical sciences, and this because, it seems, MAGA rejected the expert guidance on COVID. These rules leave many unanswered questions for that field, no?

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · Sep 1

WE ARE HIRING! 2 Lecturers in Quantitative Social Science. Want a friendly interdisciplinary department in one of the world's most vibrant cities? This just might be for you.

Apply by: 10 Oct

www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 30

I agree with comments here emphasizing Trump’s vengeance on the “medical establishment” after feeling that it conspired during COVID to unseat him. Would be nice if nurses and doctors generated a groundswell of alarm in their personal social networks about the dangers.

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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.bsky.social · Aug 29

Interesting paper on design-based uncertainty for quasi-experiments
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This article develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzin...

www.tandfonline.com

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 28

Montiel Olea has a few really nice papers on design from a decision theoretic perspective.

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 28

Anna Wilke and I have a paper (soon on Arxiv) that I can send on design diversification from minmax regret perspective. We were inspired by Manski and papers on experimental design like Banerjee et al. and Azevedo et al.

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent

www.journals.uchicago.edu

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 21

Isn't this "generalization"?

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 18

(The tortured fit of a global polynomial)

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 16

For your weekend read I highly recommend this article on the Tampa Bay Rays and the thankless pursuit of excellence:

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/06/m...

Is He Baseball’s Most Brilliant Owner, or a Failure?

www.nytimes.com

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 16

👀

ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Aug 15

link 📈🤖
A General Design-Based Framework and Estimator for Randomized Experiments (Harshaw, S\"avje, Wang) We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcom

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10

*cited (not cute)

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10

We had a wee contribution on this for randomized experiments (cute by Abadie et al.). The idea extends by analogy to observational studies: cyrussamii.com/wp-content/u...

cyrussamii.com

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10

One observes only a sample of the potential outcomes. Sampling error based standard errors provide for conservative inference for such uncertainty. Surprisingly, this was not widely known until fairly recently. (Cf the Abadie et al paper and refs therein.)

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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Jul 14

🚨Call for submissions (by Aug 1)🚨
NYU "Data Science Frontiers: Society and Politics" conference. Held at NYU’s New York campus Oct 15-17. Submit a paper or extended abstract. Full details here: nyuad.my.salesforce-sites.com/NYEvents/ape...
Travel subsidies for presenters. Please forward!

Data Science Frontiers:

nyuad.my.salesforce-sites.com

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Jul 21

Then, I love this paper by Allen et al. although I suspect you have it already :-)

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Quantifying the impact of misinformation and vaccine-skeptical content on Facebook

Low uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine in the US has been widely attributed to social media misinformation. To evaluate this claim, we introduce a framework combining lab experiments (total N = 18,725), c...

www.science.org

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Jul 21

This paper uses observational data to extend results from a field experiment: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Estimating the effect of intergroup contact over years: evidence from a youth program in Israel | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core

Estimating the effect of intergroup contact over years: evidence from a youth program in Israel - Volume 12 Issue 3

www.cambridge.org

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Jul 17

The program with links to papers can be found at the link above.

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Jul 17

Polmeth 2025 kicks off today at Emory. I’ll be presenting work on inference for group interaction experiments (eg, group training, experimental games, deliberation experiments, etc.) and coauthor Sandy Gordon will introduce our new data authentication tool, Data-NoMAD

polmeth.emory.edu/index.html

42nd Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology | Emory University | Atlanta GA

polmeth.emory.edu

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