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Reposted by Carlos Rondón-Moreno

Sergio Ocampo @socampdi.bsky.social · 15d

We are hosting the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group at @westernu.ca!
This year's keynote is Kjetil Storesletten @hellerhurwicz.bsky.social

Program 👉 baxter-robinson.github.io/CMSG2025_Pro...
Registration is 100 CAD (70 for students!) 🔗https://economics.uwo.ca/about-us/workshops/index.html

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Jul 19

The doors are always open here! Come back whenever you want!

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Jul 13

Finally, it was fantastic to have an academic excuse to reconnect with friends that I haven't seen in a very long time 👋: David Echeverry, Cesar E. Tamayo, and Luis Felipe Saenz.

Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Jul 13

The opportunity to organize a conference this big taught me many lessons, but the most important one is what a great team Eugenia Andreasen, Humberto Martínez Beltrán, and I are 🤝. Couldn't have done it without them 🙏.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Jul 13

This meeting was also particularly special for me, as we not only had Christiane (a key member of my Ph.D. advisor committee at @ndecon.bsky.social) but also the SCE presented the 2025 David A. Kendrick Distinguished Service Award to John Stachurski 🏆. They have both made a huge impact on my career.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Jul 13

As part of the conference, we featured a full-day workshop on "Heterogenous Agents Models: A Toolkit for Policy Makers" jointly organized by Central Bank of Chile Research and CEMLA. A big thank you to Matias Ossandon Busch for his support.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Jul 13

This marked the first time the event was hosted in Latin America 👏. A huge thank you to our distinguished plenary speakers 🎤—Enrique Mendoza, Christiane Baumeister @ndecon.bsky.social , and John Stachurski—for their insightful contributions .

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Jul 13

💥 What a week 💥! The annual meeting of the Society for Computational Economics at the Facultad de Economía y Negocios - Universidad de Chile was a resounding success 🔥, bringing together over 150 participants from more than 20 countries 🌎. (Thread 👇)

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Notre Dame Economics @ndecon.bsky.social · Jul 9

Former graduate student Carlos Rondon Moreno and our colleague Christiane Baumeister catching up at a Central Bank of Chile conference:

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Reposted by Carlos Rondón-Moreno

Andrea Matranga @andreamatranga.bsky.social · May 29

The tragic landslide in Blatten gives me the excuse to tell you the story of how we found out Ice Ages existed. It's a cool story and the most important bit is rather similar to what's happening now.

Melaine Le Roy @subfossilguy.bsky.social · May 29

Aerial view westward over the Blatten deposit and the newly formed lake upstream! 🧊🌊

📷Via Christian Petit/Linkedin

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

Proud of this work with @juanherreno.bsky.social. We believe these insights are critical for policymakers in emerging economies.You can find our paper in the Journal of International Economics, Vol 157.

Big thanks to my advisors at @ndecon.bsky.social!

📝 Link: shorturl.at/JdJhr

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

To sum up: Imperfect information about income shocks, when combined with borrowing constraints, is a potent source of economic instability. Optimal macroprudential policies are even more beneficial in this setting, and their design must account for these information frictions.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

In our model, this shift occurs because uninformed households, fearing the non-tradable shock might signal a worse, permanent downturn, reduce borrowing anyway, even if their borrowing capacity technically increases. The planner then doesn't need to tax as aggressively

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

Consider a temporary negative shock to "non-tradable" income:
🔹 With perfect info, the best policy is often to RAISE taxes as this income falls (procyclical).
🔹 With imperfect info, our model shows the optimal tax becomes COUNTERCYCLICAL – the planner reduces taxes as this non-tradable income falls!

Our Figure 11 shows the shift in optimal tax policy for a temporary non-tradable income shock (Zᴺ). With perfect information (Panel a), the tax is procyclical; with imperfect information (Panel b), it becomes countercyclical (positive correlation with income).

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

However, one of the most fascinating results for us was how imperfect information alters the optimal tax response depending on the specific component of income that's hit by a shock. It's not a one-size-fits-all policy.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

A really important result from our analysis: this imperfect information makes well-designed policy even more critical. We found the welfare gains from an optimal debt tax can more than double when agents can't perfectly distinguish shock types. The average optimal tax also tends to be higher.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

How can policymakers address this? We analyze "macroprudential policy," specifically taxing foreign debt. A central planner, who can internalize the economy-wide effects that individual households might not, can use this tool to improve stability.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

So why is this 'not knowing' the type of income shock so crucial in our model? Agents use available data (we model this with a Kalman filter) to guess. But their beliefs can diverge from reality!

Figure 1 from our paper illustrates how agents' beliefs (dotted line) about income shocks can differ from the actual shocks (solid line) under imperfect information. For example, a permanent negative income growth shock (gₜ, bottom right) might be initially misperceived as less severe.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

What did we find? This combination – not quite knowing if good/bad times are permanent AND having borrowing limits – can significantly increase economic instability. It can lead to "overborrowing" and make financial crises more frequent.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

Alongside this, we incorporate a common feature: how much households can borrow is limited by a "collateral constraint," often tied to their income.

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

We explore small open economies where households face a tricky situation. They see their income change, but it's hard to tell if it's a temporary blip or a long-lasting shift in their economic conditions. This is due to "imperfect information". #InformationFrictions

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · May 27

🚨 Excited to share insights from a paper I co-authored with @juanherreno.bsky.social on why emerging economies often face financial crises or "Sudden Stops"! Just published in Journal of International Economics (@jintlecon.bsky.social )

📝 Link: shorturl.at/JdJhr

#Econsky #Macroeconomics

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StataTex Blog @statatexblog.com · Mar 28

#LaTeXTip: use the --aspectratio=169-- option to fit your #beamertex slide to most modern projectors (and screeens!): \documentclass[aspectratio=169]{beamer}

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Mar 22

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Carlos Rondón-Moreno @charlieecon.bsky.social · Mar 20

Great paper. Bequest motives, medical issues, wage risks and marriage/divorce are important drivers of lifetime wealth.

Also, great to see the joint work on one of our great former RAs at the Bank— @johanatch.bsky.social