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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 5d

Today: arguing that Sherrill might lose in NJ, and also why you probably shouldn't put too much faith in that guess (or any guess). Come stare at graphs, on the blog

open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 7d

This whole NY policy debate kind of blows my mind given that I recently disconnected and reconnected our gas range. It was a little annoying (like, a good wrench, some leverage, the right pipe tape) but not *hard*.

Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 7d

I found this pretty persuasive. Maybe there's some evidence of real harm from the current regulatory status quo but doesn't really seem to be.

www.joshbarro.com/p/this-is-th...

This Is the Kind of Overregulation that Makes New York Unaffordable

The city council's plan to require plumbers to install all gas appliances in the city is an obstacle to Zohran Mamdani's pledge to freeze rents

www.joshbarro.com

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Reposted by Charlotte Swasey

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 8d

Great poll result from a very good @lakshya.splitticket.org piece today in The Argument. A lot of people think AI has been good for them but bad for others. www.theargumentmag.com/p/chatgpt-an...

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 12d

Many such cases

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Analytics and polling folks: I'll be at the Harvard political analytics conference this Friday if you want to get coffee or something

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Oh totally. Voters love a villain. There's probably something clever you can do with framing new housing as breaking investor control but like oof it's messy!

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

I will commission the Searchlight graphic designers for a giant sign that says "do it you coward", it'll be multi purpose

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

I mean, Sirota is being a dick, but also I understand the abundance theory to be "it will work to lower prices and then voters will be happy"

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Good policy and good politics are often not the same which is awkward

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

But I also read this as "you should probably not try to explain your specific plan to fix stuff and hope voters like the process" because they don't care (ie, abundance)

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Imo it's both salience and positioning. Voters always want things to be magically fixed without tradeoffs, and the way they get information about issues is super messy. However, that info still does come from things that happen in the world

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Mm, I think voters do have policy beliefs, even if they're not thought out or coherent. I.e. I think many voters want a reduction in illegal immigration, even if they don't like the policies that would actually get there

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Yeah no worries, I do think we have points of agreement

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Wait your argument here is Democrats have never actually tried to convince voters to trust them on the economy or immigration? That doesn't scan with the vast quantity of ads and persuasion material I've seen run

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

Okay, but *they do*. Voters do trust Republicans on these issues (not including climate). You can't just say it's not rational and dismiss it

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

The existence of negative media isn't a reason to handwave away real disagreements

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 15d

I don't think this is right. Yes, Republicans constantly focus on the worst Democratic issues, but that happens the other way around as well, and it works best when Dems are out of step with voters. If your position is in step with voters, the other side has less to work with

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Reposted by Charlotte Swasey

onion person @junlper.beer · 15d

you know the autism tylenol announcement is a complete embarassment because even the most sycophantic trump fans out there aren’t even talking about it seriously

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 16d

Whole writeup here (with toplines and crosstabs as always): www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/the...

The First Rule About Solving Climate Change

While battleground voters overwhelmingly agree climate change is a problem, addressing it is not a priority for them.

www.searchlightinstitute.org

Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 16d

4. Americans are really feeling the pinch of high energy prices, they want solutions immediately, and they want those solutions to be cheaper energy rather than new appliances that might eventually lower their bills

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 16d

3. Clean energy/new energy sources/cheap energy is more appealing to voters and less polarizing than "climate change"

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 16d

2. The most important thing to internalize from this is that high %s of people saying climate change is *a problem* is completely compatible with rock-bottom %s saying its a priority. The topline number of X% say it's a crisis doesn't tell you enough

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 16d

1. Searchlight has a new poll out this morning, on battleground voters and climate change. The topline finding is that voters just really do not prioritize fixing climate change, especially compared to other issues 🧵

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 18d

Plus, I was sort of expecting responses to be a little more consistent across the board! Now that it's obvious they aren't, I have a million tweaks I'd like to do to the questions

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Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 18d

We're trying a lot of different things to see what happens, right now. I think there is soft evidence that housing costs read as a separate thing than "home values", but it's a good flag

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