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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Such a silly piece. Analysis (🤔) is shockingly shallow. And style/metaphors ridiculous: 'Europeans are attached to their cuddlier form of capitalism'... All pink and fluffy this side of the pond... 'job security was once Europe's comfort blanket. It now feels more like a straightjacket'. 🙄

Dave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 2d

Words cannot describe how tone-deaf it is to publish this article at this moment.

But The Economist has been consistently tone-deaf in their Europe coverage for years. They will never get over their obsession with America, even as the US descends toward dictatorship or civil war.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Maybe there is not really a best case scenario - it is highly unlikely that any PM could command stability/legitimact with current arithmetic in Parliament but you never know... And with Macron very exposed and very unpopular, 🇫🇷 is getting closer to an institutional crisis, whomever ends up in power

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

As for parliament, it is extremely difficult to predict given the 2 round system + what the french call 'le jeux des alliances' = how parties negotiate between the two rounds of parliamentary elections. That is how the Left bloc ended up with biggest number of seats in parliament at last election

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Bardella, Rassemblement National, is far ahead of potential rivals but only around 30% of voters' intentions. Traditionally, far right does not benefit from large nb of vote carryover from other parties whose candidate doesn't make 2nd round. So a lot depends on who ends up being 1st round runner up

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Macron could also decide to 'dissolve parliament', which would lead to parliamentary elections. The Rassemblement National secured the second largest block of votes in last parliamentary election in 2024 but did not come first and was nowhere near a majority of seats.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Not necessarily. Pdt election is two round system with runoff between the two candidates that gathered most votes in 1st round if none secured 50% + 1 vote in 1st round. So far, Le Pen has failed twice after reaching second round runoff, twice against Macron. It is also not clear if Le Pen can run.

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

If he were to quit (a very unlikely scenario), there would be a presidential election. It would have to be held between 20 and 35 days after he quits. During period between resignation and election, the president of the Senat is interim 🇫🇷 Pdt, though he won't have full executive powers of Pdt

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Another scenario in immediate aftermath of 🇫🇷 PM quitting is: Macron does nothing. It took him two months to nominate Barnier after2024 elections, an unprecedented, though not strictly anticonstitutional,amount of time. He may think he can just leave this govt in place to manage things for months...

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Another PM quits in 🇫🇷, less than 24 hours after announcing the ministers in his government. Sébastien Lecornu quit this morning; he was nominated by President Macron immediately after Francois Bayrou quit as PM 9 September after loosing a vote of confidence. This is what could happen next 1/4

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

To be clear, left block is calling for Macron to nominate a left wing PM, which is something Macron had resisted since the general election results in July 2024, when a coalition of left wing parties (le front populaire) won the most seats in parliament but well short of any absolute majority

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Far Left party La France Insoumise les by Mélenchon is calling for Macron to quit. Not yet a call from other parties. Macron though is particularly unpopular, personally blamed for current political crisis, and even more exposed politically now Lecornu, a very close ally of Macron, has quit as PM.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Rassemblement National of M. Le Pen is calling for Pdt to call a general election; a reminder that political crisis in 🇫🇷 (three PMs in one year + fragmented parliament) comes from Macron’s unilateral decision to call a parliamentary election in June 2024, after his block lost heavily in 🇪🇺 elections.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Macron nominates another PM and asks them to form a government. The left block is calling for Pdt to do this, something Macron has resisted doing. BUT no block has absolute majority or seems to be able to negotiate a majority in parliament so any new PM & gvt will face the same problems.

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 2d

Another PM quits in 🇫🇷, less than 24 hours after announcing the ministers in his government. Sébastien Lecornu quit this morning; he was nominated by President Macron immediately after Francois Bayrou quit as PM 9 September after loosing a vote of confidence. This is what could happen next 1/4

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 6d

@politico.eu takes up prof Richard Whitman’s metaphor for European Political Community: one big leader-level ‘speed dating exercise’. Article 👇 reflects views of 🇪🇺 member states; BUT no views from non 🇪🇺 states 🤔 www.politico.eu/article/macr...

Macron’s big European meeting is turning into a speed-dating exercise

The once-hyped European Political Community hasn’t produced major deliverables, but it’s still useful for dialogue and showcasing policy initiatives.

www.politico.eu

Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 8d

On 2 October, 🇩🇰 hosts 7th European Political Community (EPC) summit. Despite no joint statement or commitments to action, 45+ heads of states & gvts continue to attend twice a year + summit hosts are lined up until 2028. @monikameislova.bsky.social & I on last summit 👉 ukandeu.ac.uk/europes-lead...

Europe’s leaders converge in Tirana for the sixth EPC summit - UK in a changing Europe

Cleo Davies and Monika Brusenbauch Meislová explain the history and the structure of the European Political Community summit that brings together leaders from across Europe twice a year ahead of the s...

ukandeu.ac.uk

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Reposted by Cleo Davies

Paul Adamson @padamson.bsky.social · 15d

encompass-europe.com/comment/the-... @cleodavies.bsky.social

The good diplomat: Starmer’s bilateralism with EU member states

Barely two weeks go by without a bilateral meeting between Keir Starmer and a leader from a European capital. He hosted his Irish and Spanish counterparts in Downing Street on 12 September…

encompass-europe.com

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Reposted by Cleo Davies

Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 9d

Visiting Europe, which is clearly going to hell

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · 14d

📣👇my piece today on Starmer’s approach to bilateralism with 🇪🇺 member states. He is much better at it than his recent predecessors … BUT ‘Starmer may have proven himself a good diplomat, but so far, this is not a quality that has endeared him to the British public.’ 🙏 @padamson.bsky.social

Paul Adamson @padamson.bsky.social · 15d

encompass-europe.com/comment/the-... @cleodavies.bsky.social

The good diplomat: Starmer’s bilateralism with EU member states

Barely two weeks go by without a bilateral meeting between Keir Starmer and a leader from a European capital. He hosted his Irish and Spanish counterparts in Downing Street on 12 September…

encompass-europe.com

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Reposted by Cleo Davies

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · Jun 24

The economic implications of the UK-EU reset deal: @anandmenon.bsky.social & me for Economics Observatory.

economicsobservatory.com/what-are-the...

What are the economic implications of the UK-EU reset deal? - Economics Observatory

The summit meeting of the European Union (EU) and the UK held at Lancaster House in May 2025 marked a symbolic thaw in post-Brexit relations. The event brought together EU leaders (including European ...

economicsobservatory.com

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · Jun 24

I agree!! Here is a snippet from senior remain campaigner inside n.10, on his reaction 9 years ago today… 👇 maybe remembering the lessons of that period may come in useful one day rather than recalling Hannan’s speculations

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · Jun 24

'I suddenly retch harder than I have done in my life. Nothing comes up. I retch again - so hard, it feels I will turn inside out...tears are streaming down my face - not from sadness, but from the sheer physical exertion' 👉Craig Oliver, Cameron's director Pol&Coms, outside N.10, 4:45am, 24 June 2016

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · Jun 23

An important, useful + really accessible report and a 👌👌 check on revisionist takes! @husseinkassim.bsky.social & I contributed a chapter on the 🇪🇺's Brexit strategy. That is one aspect that gives rise to some overblown, even conspiratorial takes... 2.5 pages to set the record straight 🙂 👇

UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · Jun 23

Today marks 9 years since the Brexit referendum

Since then, UKICE has evaluated UK-EU relations, traced and explained the tortuous Brexit process, and attempted to assess the impact that Brexit has had on the UK.

Check out our report for everything you need to know 👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/the-...

The Brexit Files: from referendum to reset - UK in a changing Europe

For the past decade, UK in a Changing Europe has provided impartial, research-based analysis on a number of issues, but most particularly...

ukandeu.ac.uk

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Reposted by Cleo Davies

Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social · Jun 23

"This is now a window of opportunity [for cooperation], but the domestic political trajectory in the two nuclear powers does make other Europeans wonder about their future reliability.”

Thanks for quoting me in this piece, @laukaya.bsky.social!

www.politico.eu/article/how-...

How Europe would fill an America-shaped hole in NATO

The likeliest replacement for the U.S. is a grouping of France, the U.K., Germany and Poland, but it would be much more vulnerable than an America-led alliance.

www.politico.eu

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Reposted by Cleo Davies

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · Jun 23

'Top economist' 😎

Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · Jun 23

🚨🚨 #brexit anniversary: Office of Budget Responsibility predictions of £ 40 bn hit to public finances has proven correct according to research by top economist @johnspringford.bsky.social . www.thetimes.com/article/346e...

Predictions of £40bn hit to public finances from Brexit ‘correct’

Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of a 4 per cent productivity loss from leaving the EU has been largely borne out, says top economist

www.thetimes.com

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Cleo Davies @cleodavies.bsky.social · Jun 21

Many 🙏