CM Election Predictions
@cmelectionpred.bsky.social
My name is Collen Mahoney. Elections have always interested me. Now I'm trying my hand at predicting them. Visit cmelectionpredictions.com for the latest!
The #USSenate Predictions page for #Election2026 has been updated to include win probabilities for each party, and a new list of ALL races is located at the bottom of the page. This wraps up our updates for the night!
CM Election Predictions - Senate
US Senate election forecasts by state. CM Election Predictions estimates each party’s chances for control of Congress.
www.cmelectionpredictions.com
November 22, 2025 at 6:22 AM
The #USSenate Predictions page for #Election2026 has been updated to include win probabilities for each party, and a new list of ALL races is located at the bottom of the page. This wraps up our updates for the night!
The #USGubernatorial Predictions page for #Election2026 has been updated to include win probabilities for each party, and a new list of ALL races has been added to the page. We will be rolling out similar updates to other pages soon!
CM Election Predictions - Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial election forecasts by state. CM Election Predictions estimates each party’s chances of winning.
www.cmelectionpredictions.com
November 22, 2025 at 6:21 AM
The #USGubernatorial Predictions page for #Election2026 has been updated to include win probabilities for each party, and a new list of ALL races has been added to the page. We will be rolling out similar updates to other pages soon!
The #USHouse Predictions page for #Election2026 has been updated to include win probabilities for each party, and a new list of ALL districts by state is located at the bottom of the page. We will be rolling out similar updates to other pages soon!
CM Election Predictions - House
US House election forecasts by district. CM Election Predictions estimates each party’s chances for control of Congress.
www.cmelectionpredictions.com
November 22, 2025 at 5:26 AM
The #USHouse Predictions page for #Election2026 has been updated to include win probabilities for each party, and a new list of ALL districts by state is located at the bottom of the page. We will be rolling out similar updates to other pages soon!
We're trying something new! Each week, we'll be highlighting interesting and important races for #Election2026.
Today's Electoral Spotlight shines on Montana's 1st District in the #USHouse. This race is currently rated a #Toss-Up. (1/4)
Today's Electoral Spotlight shines on Montana's 1st District in the #USHouse. This race is currently rated a #Toss-Up. (1/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:34 PM
We're trying something new! Each week, we'll be highlighting interesting and important races for #Election2026.
Today's Electoral Spotlight shines on Montana's 1st District in the #USHouse. This race is currently rated a #Toss-Up. (1/4)
Today's Electoral Spotlight shines on Montana's 1st District in the #USHouse. This race is currently rated a #Toss-Up. (1/4)
The Forecast for November 18, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17 (Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Michigan (OPEN): Likely D -> Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17 (Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Michigan (OPEN): Likely D -> Lean D
The Forecast - November 18, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:30 PM
The Forecast for November 18, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17 (Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Michigan (OPEN): Likely D -> Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17 (Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Michigan (OPEN): Likely D -> Lean D
The Forecast for November 11, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 221, R 196, Toss-Up 18 (UPGRADE - Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Oklahoma (OPEN): Likely R -> Lean R (likely due to a lack of statewide polling)
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 221, R 196, Toss-Up 18 (UPGRADE - Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Oklahoma (OPEN): Likely R -> Lean R (likely due to a lack of statewide polling)
The Forecast - November 11, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:04 AM
The Forecast for November 11, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 221, R 196, Toss-Up 18 (UPGRADE - Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Oklahoma (OPEN): Likely R -> Lean R (likely due to a lack of statewide polling)
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 221, R 196, Toss-Up 18 (UPGRADE - Likely D)
Gubernatorial Shifts
Oklahoma (OPEN): Likely R -> Lean R (likely due to a lack of statewide polling)
The Forecast for November 5, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 197, Toss-Up 20 (Lean D)
2026 Gubernatorial ratings are also out now!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 197, Toss-Up 20 (Lean D)
2026 Gubernatorial ratings are also out now!
The Forecast - November 5, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:44 AM
The Forecast for November 5, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 197, Toss-Up 20 (Lean D)
2026 Gubernatorial ratings are also out now!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 197, Toss-Up 20 (Lean D)
2026 Gubernatorial ratings are also out now!
In the New Jersey governor's race, we predict Democrat Mikie Sherrill has been elected. This is a hold for the Democrats.
November 5, 2025 at 2:26 AM
In the New Jersey governor's race, we predict Democrat Mikie Sherrill has been elected. This is a hold for the Democrats.
Polls have closed in New Jersey - since Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has been predicted the winner in the Virginia gubernatorial election, we move over to the Garden State!
November 5, 2025 at 1:06 AM
Polls have closed in New Jersey - since Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has been predicted the winner in the Virginia gubernatorial election, we move over to the Garden State!
In the Virginia governor's race, we predict Democrat Abigail Spanberger has been elected. This is a FLIP for the Democrats.
November 5, 2025 at 12:58 AM
In the Virginia governor's race, we predict Democrat Abigail Spanberger has been elected. This is a FLIP for the Democrats.
Virginia's polls are set to close at 7:00 PM Eastern time - just about five minutes from now! #VAPolitics
November 4, 2025 at 11:55 PM
Virginia's polls are set to close at 7:00 PM Eastern time - just about five minutes from now! #VAPolitics
The Election Night 2025 Special of the Forecast is out NOW!
Final Predictions
New Jersey: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) has a 76.19% chance of winning, rating Lean D.
Virginia: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has an 81.54% chance of winning, rating Likely D.
I'll be logging my thoughts here live tonight.
Final Predictions
New Jersey: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) has a 76.19% chance of winning, rating Lean D.
Virginia: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has an 81.54% chance of winning, rating Likely D.
I'll be logging my thoughts here live tonight.
The Forecast - ELECTION SPECIAL - November 4, 2025
Your Election Day update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:41 PM
The Election Night 2025 Special of the Forecast is out NOW!
Final Predictions
New Jersey: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) has a 76.19% chance of winning, rating Lean D.
Virginia: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has an 81.54% chance of winning, rating Likely D.
I'll be logging my thoughts here live tonight.
Final Predictions
New Jersey: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) has a 76.19% chance of winning, rating Lean D.
Virginia: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) has an 81.54% chance of winning, rating Likely D.
I'll be logging my thoughts here live tonight.
A quick note about the 2026 US Senate Model: because it's so early, you may see some strange predictions due to limited polling. This is evident in Montana, where the race is currently rated a "Toss-Up". Whatever the Model predicts is what gets posted, without intervention. (1/3)
October 29, 2025 at 11:43 PM
A quick note about the 2026 US Senate Model: because it's so early, you may see some strange predictions due to limited polling. This is evident in Montana, where the race is currently rated a "Toss-Up". Whatever the Model predicts is what gets posted, without intervention. (1/3)
The Forecast for October 28, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 215, R 197, Toss-Up 23 (Lean D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 215, R 197, Toss-Up 23 (Lean D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
The Forecast - October 28, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:22 PM
The Forecast for October 28, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 215, R 197, Toss-Up 23 (Lean D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 215, R 197, Toss-Up 23 (Lean D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
The Forecast for October 21, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 200, Toss-Up 17 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 200, Toss-Up 17 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
The Forecast - October 21, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
October 21, 2025 at 10:03 PM
The Forecast for October 21, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 200, Toss-Up 17 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R)
House: D 218, R 200, Toss-Up 17 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
The Forecast for October 14, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
The Forecast - October 14, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
October 14, 2025 at 11:07 PM
The Forecast for October 14, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Lean D
The Forecast for October 7, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Likely D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Likely D
The Forecast - October 7, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
October 7, 2025 at 10:20 PM
The Forecast for October 7, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Likely D
Current Standings
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1 (Likely R)
House: D 219, R 198, Toss-Up 18 (Solid D)
Governor:
NJ Lean D
VA Likely D
The Forecast - September 1, 2025
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The Forecast - September 1, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
September 1, 2025 at 11:39 PM
The Forecast - September 1, 2025
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cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com/p/the-foreca...
Want to see how accurate the Model has been over the last few years? Check it out here:
CM Election Predictions - Historical Results
2018
www.cmelectionpredictions.com
September 1, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Want to see how accurate the Model has been over the last few years? Check it out here:
The Forecast - August 25, 2025
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The Forecast - August 25, 2025
Your weekly update from CM Election Predictions.
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com
August 26, 2025 at 1:40 AM
The Forecast - August 25, 2025
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com/p/the-foreca...
cmelectionpredictions.beehiiv.com/p/the-foreca...
My name is Collen Mahoney. Elections have always interested me. Now I'm trying my hand at predicting them.
www.cmelectionpredictions.com/home
www.cmelectionpredictions.com/home
CM Election Predictions
Hi there!
My name is Collen Mahoney. Elections have always interested me. Now I'm trying my hand at predicting them.
www.cmelectionpredictions.com
August 22, 2025 at 4:31 AM
My name is Collen Mahoney. Elections have always interested me. Now I'm trying my hand at predicting them.
www.cmelectionpredictions.com/home
www.cmelectionpredictions.com/home