CM Election Predictions
@cmelectionpred.bsky.social
My name is Collen Mahoney. Elections have always interested me. Now I'm trying my hand at predicting them. Visit cmelectionpredictions.com for the latest!
Right now, the Model has the odds of winning for each party at essentially a coin-flip, with the Republicans at a 51.78% chance of holding the seat. This will likely change as we are still far from Election Day, but it will be interesting to see how this race develops! (4/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Right now, the Model has the odds of winning for each party at essentially a coin-flip, with the Republicans at a 51.78% chance of holding the seat. This will likely change as we are still far from Election Day, but it will be interesting to see how this race develops! (4/4)
In the 2024 Election, Rep. Zinke was re-elected, winning by ~7.7%. In that same election, Republican Donald Trump and incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won the district by ~11%, with larger margins for other statewide offices. Democratic Senator Jon Tester won the district by ~1%. (3/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:34 PM
In the 2024 Election, Rep. Zinke was re-elected, winning by ~7.7%. In that same election, Republican Donald Trump and incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won the district by ~11%, with larger margins for other statewide offices. Democratic Senator Jon Tester won the district by ~1%. (3/4)
Set in western Montana, it covers the cities of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte and Kalispell. The district, along with MT-02, replaced the Montana At-Large district after the 2020 census, reflecting continued population growth in Montana. The district is currently held by Republican Ryan Zinke. (2/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Set in western Montana, it covers the cities of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte and Kalispell. The district, along with MT-02, replaced the Montana At-Large district after the 2020 census, reflecting continued population growth in Montana. The district is currently held by Republican Ryan Zinke. (2/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:26 PM
The seat is currently rated as a Toss-Up and is anticipated to be the closest race in the House (at least right now) - the Republicans have a 51.78% chance of holding the seat. This will likely change as we are far from Election Day, but it will be interesting to see how this race develops! (4/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:07 PM
The seat is currently rated as a Toss-Up and is anticipated to be the closest race in the House (at least right now) - the Republicans have a 51.78% chance of holding the seat. This will likely change as we are far from Election Day, but it will be interesting to see how this race develops! (4/4)
In that same election, Republican Donald Trump ad incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won the district by ~11%, with even larger margins for other statewide offices. Democratic Senator Jon Tester won the district by ~1%. (3/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:07 PM
In that same election, Republican Donald Trump ad incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won the district by ~11%, with even larger margins for other statewide offices. Democratic Senator Jon Tester won the district by ~1%. (3/4)
The district, along with MT-02, replaced the Montana At-Large district after the 2020 census, reflecting continued population growth in Montana. The district is currently held by Republican Ryan Zinke. In the 2024 Election, Rep. Zinke was re-elected, winning by ~7.7%. (2/4)
November 19, 2025 at 11:07 PM
The district, along with MT-02, replaced the Montana At-Large district after the 2020 census, reflecting continued population growth in Montana. The district is currently held by Republican Ryan Zinke. In the 2024 Election, Rep. Zinke was re-elected, winning by ~7.7%. (2/4)
Monmouth County is nearly finished counting - Ciattarelli (R) winning by ~9% - he won here by 18.5% in 2021, and Trump (R) won by ~11.3%.
November 5, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Monmouth County is nearly finished counting - Ciattarelli (R) winning by ~9% - he won here by 18.5% in 2021, and Trump (R) won by ~11.3%.
Middlesex County, with ~83% of the vote in, has lurched DRAMATICALLY towards Democrat Mikie Sherrill compared to the Harris vote in 2024, and the Democratic vote in 2021. Still more vote to count, but Harris (D) won by ~8%, Sherrill leading now by ~26%.
November 5, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Middlesex County, with ~83% of the vote in, has lurched DRAMATICALLY towards Democrat Mikie Sherrill compared to the Harris vote in 2024, and the Democratic vote in 2021. Still more vote to count, but Harris (D) won by ~8%, Sherrill leading now by ~26%.
Cape May County, with ~85% of the vote in, is tracking pretty closely to the Trump (R) performance in 2024 - but is also seeing slippage from Ciattarelli's (R) 2021 performance.
November 5, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Cape May County, with ~85% of the vote in, is tracking pretty closely to the Trump (R) performance in 2024 - but is also seeing slippage from Ciattarelli's (R) 2021 performance.
Monmouth County, with ~78% of the vote in, is showing a pretty steep drop in support for Ciattarelli (R), voting for him by ~18.5% in 2021. He currently leads by ~8%. Still some vote to count, but a steeper hill to climb.
November 5, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Monmouth County, with ~78% of the vote in, is showing a pretty steep drop in support for Ciattarelli (R), voting for him by ~18.5% in 2021. He currently leads by ~8%. Still some vote to count, but a steeper hill to climb.
Ocean County, with ~57% of the vote in, is showing some slippage for Jack Ciatterelli (R), but not enough that it couldn't be made up with remaining votes...but I'm curious to see if there is any movement here. Ocean County was solidly Republican in 2021 and 2024, and I expect it will be tonight.
November 5, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Ocean County, with ~57% of the vote in, is showing some slippage for Jack Ciatterelli (R), but not enough that it couldn't be made up with remaining votes...but I'm curious to see if there is any movement here. Ocean County was solidly Republican in 2021 and 2024, and I expect it will be tonight.
Even as a number of counties have reported a significant chunk of vote, there's not enough yet to tell which direction this race is headed.
November 5, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Even as a number of counties have reported a significant chunk of vote, there's not enough yet to tell which direction this race is headed.
Surry County, a swing district in Virginia, has flipped to Democrat Abigail Spanberger. The county voted for Republicans in 2021 and 2024 by just shy of 1%. This year, it appears the county has voted for Spanberger by ~4.5%.
November 5, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Surry County, a swing district in Virginia, has flipped to Democrat Abigail Spanberger. The county voted for Republicans in 2021 and 2024 by just shy of 1%. This year, it appears the county has voted for Spanberger by ~4.5%.
Loudon County, a large suburban county near Washington, DC, appears to have finished counting. Spanberger (D) has a significantly stronger margin than Harris (D) in 2024, and an even stronger performance than the Democrat in 2021.
November 5, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Loudon County, a large suburban county near Washington, DC, appears to have finished counting. Spanberger (D) has a significantly stronger margin than Harris (D) in 2024, and an even stronger performance than the Democrat in 2021.
Westmoreland County, VA, has apparently finished counting. A very slight move toward Earle-Sears (R) compared to 2024, but compared to 2021, Spanberger (D) is running a margin ~6.8% better than the Democrat then.
November 5, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Westmoreland County, VA, has apparently finished counting. A very slight move toward Earle-Sears (R) compared to 2024, but compared to 2021, Spanberger (D) is running a margin ~6.8% better than the Democrat then.
Surry County has reported ~75% of the vote, and was very narrow in 2021 and 2024. Right now, Spanberger (D) holds a healthy lead of ~9%. If that holds, it would indicate a likely significant swing across the Commonwealth. Votes are still being counted, but this is a county I'm watching closely!
November 5, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Surry County has reported ~75% of the vote, and was very narrow in 2021 and 2024. Right now, Spanberger (D) holds a healthy lead of ~9%. If that holds, it would indicate a likely significant swing across the Commonwealth. Votes are still being counted, but this is a county I'm watching closely!
Results have started to roll out in the Commonwealth of Virginia - no clear signs either direction at this moment! Some precincts have quickly dumped there results, but no singular county or municipality has dumped enough to get a clear idea of what's going on.
November 5, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Results have started to roll out in the Commonwealth of Virginia - no clear signs either direction at this moment! Some precincts have quickly dumped there results, but no singular county or municipality has dumped enough to get a clear idea of what's going on.