Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Rome Statute appreciator.
and here's something a little tighter*
*the narrowest street in Shrewsbury, or so I'm told by people who you can't get _not_ to tell you things like this in rural pubs.
*the narrowest street in Shrewsbury, or so I'm told by people who you can't get _not_ to tell you things like this in rural pubs.
January 9, 2026 at 1:05 PM
and here's something a little tighter*
*the narrowest street in Shrewsbury, or so I'm told by people who you can't get _not_ to tell you things like this in rural pubs.
*the narrowest street in Shrewsbury, or so I'm told by people who you can't get _not_ to tell you things like this in rural pubs.
That's exactly what I'm gunning for here. I see it a lot in psychology, but I think it's more general.
Elsewhere, I've tried to distinguish old school vs new school causal inference. I think this isn't quite tight, but it gets the broad contours right.
Elsewhere, I've tried to distinguish old school vs new school causal inference. I think this isn't quite tight, but it gets the broad contours right.
![NEW SCHOOL CAUSAL INFERENCE
Causal inference requires a causal estimand:
[Population, intervention, outcome, aggregate effect]
We want to isolate the association that identifies the estimand
> There's association everywhere
> Some of it is informative about what would happen if we changed D
> Try to isolate that part
Any procedure *could* identify a causal effect
...it just depends what assumptions you're willing to defend](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tz2mbeciygifilnnojl5j7im/bafkreigiptlxrm2n7eubg3zk5at6wilijf6ru2jzbryqo4ayvlhz5hv4v4@jpeg)
January 5, 2026 at 11:04 AM
That's exactly what I'm gunning for here. I see it a lot in psychology, but I think it's more general.
Elsewhere, I've tried to distinguish old school vs new school causal inference. I think this isn't quite tight, but it gets the broad contours right.
Elsewhere, I've tried to distinguish old school vs new school causal inference. I think this isn't quite tight, but it gets the broad contours right.
Damn. There goes stackexchange.
But my buggy whip skills are still valuable, right? Right?
Maybe I should have asked a second question or something.
But my buggy whip skills are still valuable, right? Right?
Maybe I should have asked a second question or something.
January 4, 2026 at 9:57 PM
Damn. There goes stackexchange.
But my buggy whip skills are still valuable, right? Right?
Maybe I should have asked a second question or something.
But my buggy whip skills are still valuable, right? Right?
Maybe I should have asked a second question or something.
As someone who loiters in all three of these camps, this Doctorow essay was always going to appeal to me. And appeal it does.
pluralistic.net/2026/01/01/3...
pluralistic.net/2026/01/01/3...
January 2, 2026 at 11:30 AM
As someone who loiters in all three of these camps, this Doctorow essay was always going to appeal to me. And appeal it does.
pluralistic.net/2026/01/01/3...
pluralistic.net/2026/01/01/3...
The original postcard here, minus colouring and upscale artifacts.
Metadata: "View of Alexanderplatz with the Berolina statue in a south-westerly direction. On the right is the H. Tietz department store." From www.akg-images.de/search/AQAAA...
Metadata: "View of Alexanderplatz with the Berolina statue in a south-westerly direction. On the right is the H. Tietz department store." From www.akg-images.de/search/AQAAA...
December 27, 2025 at 4:30 PM
The original postcard here, minus colouring and upscale artifacts.
Metadata: "View of Alexanderplatz with the Berolina statue in a south-westerly direction. On the right is the H. Tietz department store." From www.akg-images.de/search/AQAAA...
Metadata: "View of Alexanderplatz with the Berolina statue in a south-westerly direction. On the right is the H. Tietz department store." From www.akg-images.de/search/AQAAA...
Absolutely peak 'criminal lawyer thinks about business regulation': either this thing is bad so we regulate it, by which I mean make it illegal and prosecute it, or it is good and we let it happen however it happens.
December 23, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Absolutely peak 'criminal lawyer thinks about business regulation': either this thing is bad so we regulate it, by which I mean make it illegal and prosecute it, or it is good and we let it happen however it happens.
Fellow academic writers: to make the AI summary redundant, state your conclusion rather than your topic or question in the title and write an abstract that summarises the content.
The field biologists understand this, but it hasn't reached the rest of us. And yes, I'm guilty of not doing this too.
The field biologists understand this, but it hasn't reached the rest of us. And yes, I'm guilty of not doing this too.
December 17, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Fellow academic writers: to make the AI summary redundant, state your conclusion rather than your topic or question in the title and write an abstract that summarises the content.
The field biologists understand this, but it hasn't reached the rest of us. And yes, I'm guilty of not doing this too.
The field biologists understand this, but it hasn't reached the rest of us. And yes, I'm guilty of not doing this too.
"Interpret the the estimand framework from a Cthulhu inference perspective"
December 15, 2025 at 7:53 PM
"Interpret the the estimand framework from a Cthulhu inference perspective"
You will be visited by three spirits
(New York, Paris, and Peckham)
(New York, Paris, and Peckham)
December 9, 2025 at 11:44 PM
You will be visited by three spirits
(New York, Paris, and Peckham)
(New York, Paris, and Peckham)
You will be visited by three spirits
spoiler: they're all christmas past
spoiler: they're all christmas past
December 9, 2025 at 10:34 AM
You will be visited by three spirits
spoiler: they're all christmas past
spoiler: they're all christmas past
This might not be your bag, but it is mine.
December 6, 2025 at 7:58 PM
This might not be your bag, but it is mine.
From that Eliot I was, for long time, a pair of ragged claws, scuttling across the floors of silent seas – until I was overwhelmed by Beckett (here at the end of Enueg I) just freely translating Rimbeau's Barbare, because why not? And it's stuck there ever since.
December 6, 2025 at 7:56 PM
From that Eliot I was, for long time, a pair of ragged claws, scuttling across the floors of silent seas – until I was overwhelmed by Beckett (here at the end of Enueg I) just freely translating Rimbeau's Barbare, because why not? And it's stuck there ever since.
Adults who aren't anyone's children don't have this problem.
December 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Adults who aren't anyone's children don't have this problem.
Another one for the mute list
December 2, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Another one for the mute list
Sure, but it wasn't us who named a whole breakfast cereal after the handsy old tutor we bundled into retirement before the police got interested.
November 30, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Sure, but it wasn't us who named a whole breakfast cereal after the handsy old tutor we bundled into retirement before the police got interested.
- The Party
because like our Die Partei they're also kind of comedy
because like our Die Partei they're also kind of comedy
November 29, 2025 at 1:06 PM
- The Party
because like our Die Partei they're also kind of comedy
because like our Die Partei they're also kind of comedy