Conor sen private/back up account
@conorrsen.bsky.social
Bloomberg Opinion columnist, Buc-ee's fan
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So the way to play the bond market this year might turn out to be hawkish in January, dovish in April, hawkish in September, dovish in December (?) — tough one for people who like consistency:
November 18, 2024 at 12:12 PM
So the way to play the bond market this year might turn out to be hawkish in January, dovish in April, hawkish in September, dovish in December (?) — tough one for people who like consistency:
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I will never understand the rationale for blocking a merger between a struggling airline and a small airline — better to have a 5th major competitor than sort it out in bankruptcy:
November 18, 2024 at 11:47 AM
I will never understand the rationale for blocking a merger between a struggling airline and a small airline — better to have a 5th major competitor than sort it out in bankruptcy:
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“Trump is especially concerned about the effect of his Treasury pick on the stock market, and does not want to interrupt the market’s momentum since his victory.
That calculus has ruled out his former trade adviser Robert Lighthizer, whose hard-line embrace of tariffs would likely jar the markets.”
That calculus has ruled out his former trade adviser Robert Lighthizer, whose hard-line embrace of tariffs would likely jar the markets.”
November 18, 2024 at 12:27 AM
“Trump is especially concerned about the effect of his Treasury pick on the stock market, and does not want to interrupt the market’s momentum since his victory.
That calculus has ruled out his former trade adviser Robert Lighthizer, whose hard-line embrace of tariffs would likely jar the markets.”
That calculus has ruled out his former trade adviser Robert Lighthizer, whose hard-line embrace of tariffs would likely jar the markets.”
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I know Threads claims it has 275M MAU or whatever but I think a lot of it is “Clicks on one engagement bait post that shows up on your Instagram feed.”
WOW!
More people are visiting Bluesky than Threads, even though Bluesky has far fewer users and isn’t linked to the world’s largest social network. Incredible.
Story here: www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...
More people are visiting Bluesky than Threads, even though Bluesky has far fewer users and isn’t linked to the world’s largest social network. Incredible.
Story here: www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...
November 17, 2024 at 11:01 PM
I know Threads claims it has 275M MAU or whatever but I think a lot of it is “Clicks on one engagement bait post that shows up on your Instagram feed.”
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Packaged food stocks sold off on Friday on the belief that RFK Jr. would make life more difficult for processed food companies, if you’re wondering about market efficiency:
November 17, 2024 at 12:44 PM
Packaged food stocks sold off on Friday on the belief that RFK Jr. would make life more difficult for processed food companies, if you’re wondering about market efficiency:
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In the 2010’s we were all worried about how anything we ever did on the internet would last forever, but now Google search results don’t pull anything more than 2 weeks old, Twitter search doesn’t work, and everything else that’s old on the internet is broken links or behind a paywall.
November 17, 2024 at 2:21 AM
In the 2010’s we were all worried about how anything we ever did on the internet would last forever, but now Google search results don’t pull anything more than 2 weeks old, Twitter search doesn’t work, and everything else that’s old on the internet is broken links or behind a paywall.
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Ladies and gentlemen, we got him.
Hi folks. I just got here. Anyone have advice on getting set up?
November 17, 2024 at 2:00 AM
Ladies and gentlemen, we got him.
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This sort of gaming of passive index ETF flows makes me think about how Moody’s/S&P AAA ratings could be gamed for securitized credit products:
November 16, 2024 at 8:09 PM
This sort of gaming of passive index ETF flows makes me think about how Moody’s/S&P AAA ratings could be gamed for securitized credit products:
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Bluesky holding up better than Netflix
November 16, 2024 at 3:55 AM
Bluesky holding up better than Netflix
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Stocks exactly UNCH over the last month now
November 15, 2024 at 7:55 PM
Stocks exactly UNCH over the last month now
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I get the knee-jerk impulse here, but the data was pretty clear that Trump won due to people who don’t follow politics at all. If you’re on here, X/Twitter, Threads, Truth Social or anywhere else doing politics you’re not reaching the key voters who decided 2024.
November 15, 2024 at 6:32 PM
I get the knee-jerk impulse here, but the data was pretty clear that Trump won due to people who don’t follow politics at all. If you’re on here, X/Twitter, Threads, Truth Social or anywhere else doing politics you’re not reaching the key voters who decided 2024.
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Trump’s last Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, called the stock market the administration’s report card, and particularly through the 2018 midterms they had a pretty smooth ride. To the extent 2025-26 turns out to be choppier I’m curious how much if at all it changes things:
November 15, 2024 at 6:14 PM
Trump’s last Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, called the stock market the administration’s report card, and particularly through the 2018 midterms they had a pretty smooth ride. To the extent 2025-26 turns out to be choppier I’m curious how much if at all it changes things:
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National Review is on this platform. bsky.app/profile/nati... You shoud consider a follow. I understand that Bluesky tilts liberal, but it would be a good thing for America and the world to build a wide spectrum of discussion here in place of the wreckage of Twitter/X
bsky.app
November 15, 2024 at 3:59 PM
National Review is on this platform. bsky.app/profile/nati... You shoud consider a follow. I understand that Bluesky tilts liberal, but it would be a good thing for America and the world to build a wide spectrum of discussion here in place of the wreckage of Twitter/X
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My great grandfather was an illegal immigrant, involved in the opium trade, and bought his wife.
Give me one interesting fact about your family history that you learned.
November 15, 2024 at 4:13 PM
My great grandfather was an illegal immigrant, involved in the opium trade, and bought his wife.
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In the economic data, August was weak, September was quite strong, and October was weak (lots of asterisks with October because of the hurricanes/strikes). And now we get the sentiment shift in November due to the election so it'll take a couple months to see where things settle out.
November 15, 2024 at 1:49 PM
In the economic data, August was weak, September was quite strong, and October was weak (lots of asterisks with October because of the hurricanes/strikes). And now we get the sentiment shift in November due to the election so it'll take a couple months to see where things settle out.
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Core retail sales -0.1% vs +0.3% estimates.
November 15, 2024 at 1:30 PM
Core retail sales -0.1% vs +0.3% estimates.
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Yeah, if follower counts were expressed as an MAU-type metric rather than all the dead accounts who followed you at some point I think that’d change the way people think about platform size.
as an experiment, I posted the same post to twitter and bluesky.
here is the time series of engagements (sum of comments, reposts, likes) from the two platforms.
Note that I have 39K followers on twitter and 7K here, so engagement per follower here is more than 10 times higher here on bluesky.
here is the time series of engagements (sum of comments, reposts, likes) from the two platforms.
Note that I have 39K followers on twitter and 7K here, so engagement per follower here is more than 10 times higher here on bluesky.
November 15, 2024 at 1:24 PM
Yeah, if follower counts were expressed as an MAU-type metric rather than all the dead accounts who followed you at some point I think that’d change the way people think about platform size.
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It’s pretty clear that the market/economic setup heading into 2025 isn’t the same as 2017, and everyone knows this, but because markets ran back the Trump trade on election night people put that aside for a bit. Even a modest selloff would shift the narrative/vibes I think.
November 15, 2024 at 11:38 AM
It’s pretty clear that the market/economic setup heading into 2025 isn’t the same as 2017, and everyone knows this, but because markets ran back the Trump trade on election night people put that aside for a bit. Even a modest selloff would shift the narrative/vibes I think.
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Industrials November 2016 vs November 2024. Lots of stuff that’s already below the open of the day after the election:
November 14, 2024 at 11:30 PM
Industrials November 2016 vs November 2024. Lots of stuff that’s already below the open of the day after the election:
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Here's Harris and Trump margins by political news consumption compared to their margins in states with the same gap
Ppl who follow news....
- "a great deal": Harris +6 (N. Mexico)
- "a lot": Harris +3 (N. Hampshire)
- "a moderate amount": Trump +3 (Nevada)
- "not at all": Trump +19 (Indiana)
Ppl who follow news....
- "a great deal": Harris +6 (N. Mexico)
- "a lot": Harris +3 (N. Hampshire)
- "a moderate amount": Trump +3 (Nevada)
- "not at all": Trump +19 (Indiana)
November 14, 2024 at 10:05 PM
Here's Harris and Trump margins by political news consumption compared to their margins in states with the same gap
Ppl who follow news....
- "a great deal": Harris +6 (N. Mexico)
- "a lot": Harris +3 (N. Hampshire)
- "a moderate amount": Trump +3 (Nevada)
- "not at all": Trump +19 (Indiana)
Ppl who follow news....
- "a great deal": Harris +6 (N. Mexico)
- "a lot": Harris +3 (N. Hampshire)
- "a moderate amount": Trump +3 (Nevada)
- "not at all": Trump +19 (Indiana)
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Semis and small cap stocks are below where they opened the morning of November 6th:
November 14, 2024 at 9:26 PM
Semis and small cap stocks are below where they opened the morning of November 6th:
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A modest uptick in the YoY growth of non seasonally-adjusted continuing jobless claims this week — if this were to get closer to 8-10% YoY growth I’d be concerned, but it’s been in yellow flag territory for months:
November 14, 2024 at 2:58 PM
A modest uptick in the YoY growth of non seasonally-adjusted continuing jobless claims this week — if this were to get closer to 8-10% YoY growth I’d be concerned, but it’s been in yellow flag territory for months:
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The Citi economic surprise index is getting to the top of the range:
November 14, 2024 at 1:23 PM
The Citi economic surprise index is getting to the top of the range:
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Apparently it’s to fill the seat ASAP like by January — unclear how quickly they can schedule a special election:
November 14, 2024 at 12:15 AM
Apparently it’s to fill the seat ASAP like by January — unclear how quickly they can schedule a special election:
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Betting markets are good now:
November 13, 2024 at 11:32 PM
Betting markets are good now: