It is so disheartening to see so many people on here who are well aware that Crockett's base is predominantly Black openly advocate for disenfranchising them as opposed to engaging them. And then act incredulous about accusations of racism.

Especially since we definitely took a step forward this year *and* appear to have the foundations to be good in the future. The real test is next year. It's not natty or bust but it's definitely playoff or bust.

Michigan doesn't have a *great* secondary, but a much better offense. Changes the calculus. Why force throws when you don't have to?

Last year, Michigan's offense was so incompetent that OSU's success rate on throwing bombs was probably going to be higher than Michigan moving the ball more than 20 yards and OSU incredulously decided to do everything BUT that.

There's a few other angles but basically: If we beat OSU (to be clear, they are much better than us), we need to be locked in on UW-UO, the rest may not even matter.

In order of preference, we need:

1. Oregon lose--M's resume becomes *better* than UO AND Michigan gets to B1G title game.

2. ND lose--M's resume is better

3. Alabama lose--M's resume is better

4. Oklahoma loses--I think OU still ahead of M but moves from lock to "probably"

1. I think 3-loss Texas gets in over M (and I would agree *ducks*)

2. I think ND gets in over us (probably also fair)

3. If BYU beats TTU in rematch, I think TTU AND BYU gets in, creating Big 12 #2 ("conference championship game can't hurt you")

Three realistic ways M "probably" doesn't get in.

Locks if they win:

Oregon, Alabama (would be SEC #4*), Oklahoma (would be SEC#5)

*If for some reason Alabama AND Oklahoma lose, Texas is DEFINITELY getting in as SEC #4, which is why SEC #4 remains locked.

That leaves 1 spot left, but I still don't think it looks good for Michigan because...

Essentially, more can go right than wrong but most importantly... we've hit the house money point in the season! Everything can go wrong next weekend, including (likely) losing to OSU, and this has gotta be considered a successful rebuild season. A lock for preseason top 10.

Basically only two complicating scenarios:

1. Texas beats TAMU, not only giving them a win as good as M's best, but the win over OU that M does not have.

2. BYU wins out, earning autobid beating Texas Tech in Big12 title game and forcing resume comparison between M and Tech.

Alabama wouldn't survive a 2nd terrible loss (Auburn) so Michigan would pass them. Purdue beating Indiana (highly unlikely) moves Michigan to B1G title game even w/o moving up. Texas is one of two 3-loss teams that *might* get in over 2-loss Michigan, better safe than sorry.

The reason UW over UO is the best case scenario is that it's the only twofer: moves a team below Michigan AND opens up the possibility of the autobid, so even if disaster hits elsewhere (more on this later), Michigan controls its own destiny (plus for this team B1G title would be meaningful).

Outside of beating OSU, at least one of the following things outside of Michigan's control needs to go right, in order of goodness:

1. Washington beating Oregon*
2. Auburn beating Alabama
3. Purdue beating Indiana*
4. TAMU beating Texas

*M qualifies for B1G title game

+ the extent to which Sliwa staying in the race would be *the* reason Cuomo lost. Atlas poll basically implied the answer was "yes". Turns out Cuomo did more or less peel off the Republicans he thought he needed, but he still lost because Zohran was too popular.

you know ball