Cullen Hendrix
@cullenhendrix.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at Peterson Institute. Sustainability, security, and political economy. Heart masquerading as head since 1977.
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.
There is no point in dancing around this. @mdebolle.com and I recorded several months ago but the point is no less relevant today; new episode of @piie.com Policy for the Planet podcast on critical minerals and US critical mineral strategy. Available on your platform.
www.piie.com/newsroom/pol...
www.piie.com/newsroom/pol...
January 20, 2026 at 3:06 PM
There is no point in dancing around this. @mdebolle.com and I recorded several months ago but the point is no less relevant today; new episode of @piie.com Policy for the Planet podcast on critical minerals and US critical mineral strategy. Available on your platform.
www.piie.com/newsroom/pol...
www.piie.com/newsroom/pol...
This was really good. This para especially. But worth remembering that striking originality and empirical breakthroughs are still qualities assessed subjectively. This will make gatekeepers more, rather than less, powerful and node centrality more, rather than less, important for success.
January 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM
This was really good. This para especially. But worth remembering that striking originality and empirical breakthroughs are still qualities assessed subjectively. This will make gatekeepers more, rather than less, powerful and node centrality more, rather than less, important for success.
Y'all, this new National Security Strategy is WILD.
"Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP—down from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today ... But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."
"Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP—down from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today ... But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."
December 5, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Y'all, this new National Security Strategy is WILD.
"Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP—down from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today ... But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."
"Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP—down from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today ... But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."
Tariffs and economic uncertainty are hurting US musical instrument imports that serve the beginner market. The beginner of today is the big spender of tomorrow. Cutting off access for starter instruments eats the US musical instrument industry's seed corn. Via @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
December 3, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Tariffs and economic uncertainty are hurting US musical instrument imports that serve the beginner market. The beginner of today is the big spender of tomorrow. Cutting off access for starter instruments eats the US musical instrument industry's seed corn. Via @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
And they say there are no good use cases for AI (NOTE: GENERATED WITH AI).
November 20, 2025 at 7:30 PM
And they say there are no good use cases for AI (NOTE: GENERATED WITH AI).
Tiny trade value (0.04% of global trade). Massive cultural engine. A minute on why musical instruments matter.
November 20, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Tiny trade value (0.04% of global trade). Massive cultural engine. A minute on why musical instruments matter.
Loved joining @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social, Julie Robbins (Earthquaker), and John Mlynczak (NAMM) on @piie.com’s Trade Winds.
Tariffs + uncertainty = massive headwinds for U.S. instrument makers. Let’s not let music become trade-war collateral.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixP8...
#music #trade #NAMM
Tariffs + uncertainty = massive headwinds for U.S. instrument makers. Let’s not let music become trade-war collateral.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixP8...
#music #trade #NAMM
November 19, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Loved joining @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social, Julie Robbins (Earthquaker), and John Mlynczak (NAMM) on @piie.com’s Trade Winds.
Tariffs + uncertainty = massive headwinds for U.S. instrument makers. Let’s not let music become trade-war collateral.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixP8...
#music #trade #NAMM
Tariffs + uncertainty = massive headwinds for U.S. instrument makers. Let’s not let music become trade-war collateral.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixP8...
#music #trade #NAMM
Wonder if the author is the one in Trump's ear about South African refugees.
November 6, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Wonder if the author is the one in Trump's ear about South African refugees.
Chef's kiss, no notes, America. This is where we are.
I'm so ashamed.
I'm so ashamed.
October 30, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Chef's kiss, no notes, America. This is where we are.
I'm so ashamed.
I'm so ashamed.
When political risk types say we're in unprecedented times, they're right. 2025 combines high geopolitical risk (90th percentile) and off-the-charts trade policy uncertainty. We haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
October 23, 2025 at 11:05 PM
When political risk types say we're in unprecedented times, they're right. 2025 combines high geopolitical risk (90th percentile) and off-the-charts trade policy uncertainty. We haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
I am sorry but Milei looks like the aging frontman of an indie sleaze band back for one last cash grab ... which isn't a bad metaphor, to be honest.
October 22, 2025 at 5:10 PM
I am sorry but Milei looks like the aging frontman of an indie sleaze band back for one last cash grab ... which isn't a bad metaphor, to be honest.
Love to see a packed house for @piie.com's discussion of the role of the dollar. If you can't be here now, be here online!
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
October 16, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Love to see a packed house for @piie.com's discussion of the role of the dollar. If you can't be here now, be here online!
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
Putting numbers to vibes. The confluence of these levels of global geopolitical risk and global trade policy uncertainty hasn't been seen in at least 40 years (as far back as both series go).
September 22, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Putting numbers to vibes. The confluence of these levels of global geopolitical risk and global trade policy uncertainty hasn't been seen in at least 40 years (as far back as both series go).
Yes. Disney probably thinks they are Ariel or Mulan.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
September 19, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Yes. Disney probably thinks they are Ariel or Mulan.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
The @vdeminstitute.bsky.social scored the United States a 0.75 on the Liberal Democracy Index in 2024. Higher = more democratic.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
September 16, 2025 at 4:13 PM
The @vdeminstitute.bsky.social scored the United States a 0.75 on the Liberal Democracy Index in 2024. Higher = more democratic.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
Back in March I warned that tariffs could shrink U.S. drummers’ product choices, especially Canada’s #SABIAN cymbals—one of the Big 4.
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
September 12, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Back in March I warned that tariffs could shrink U.S. drummers’ product choices, especially Canada’s #SABIAN cymbals—one of the Big 4.
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Evidently the 'team of Ph.D. level experts in your pocket' does not know the definition of "exogenous", which seems like it might be relevant for PhD-level research.
August 26, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Evidently the 'team of Ph.D. level experts in your pocket' does not know the definition of "exogenous", which seems like it might be relevant for PhD-level research.
Apropos of nothing, the taller candidate has won 2/3rds of US presidential elections since 1960.
August 22, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Apropos of nothing, the taller candidate has won 2/3rds of US presidential elections since 1960.
More of this, please.
August 8, 2025 at 10:59 PM
More of this, please.
And now my boss and @piie.com president @adamposen.bsky.social has a statement as well. Here's where this kind of self-deception puts us.
August 6, 2025 at 4:53 PM
And now my boss and @piie.com president @adamposen.bsky.social has a statement as well. Here's where this kind of self-deception puts us.
China wasn't a major destination for US musical instrument exports - but it's gotten a lot smaller since Liberation Day. In May, US instrument exports to China were down 80%! Down 30% year to date from 2024.
July 17, 2025 at 5:22 PM
China wasn't a major destination for US musical instrument exports - but it's gotten a lot smaller since Liberation Day. In May, US instrument exports to China were down 80%! Down 30% year to date from 2024.
Don't you know it ... and here I was killing time looking at changes in import shares from 2020 to 2025 - two of the countries taking market share from Chinese imports (Indonesia and Japan) could be facing much higher tariffs come August:
July 8, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Don't you know it ... and here I was killing time looking at changes in import shares from 2020 to 2025 - two of the countries taking market share from Chinese imports (Indonesia and Japan) could be facing much higher tariffs come August:
Great! Now do oil and gas and military & defense industrial complex!
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
July 2, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Great! Now do oil and gas and military & defense industrial complex!
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.