Current Market Valuation
@currentmarketval.bsky.social
CMV tracks long-term stock market valuation models, as well as market sentiment and economic indicators. https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com
(Our posts are not financial advice.)
(Our posts are not financial advice.)
For more info on how jobs data has been used to predict recessions, and the data we use in our models: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/sahm-...
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
The Yield Curve isn’t the only indicator to watch. The Sahm Rule, which tracks changes in the unemployment rate, can also signal the onset of a recession. Here’s how it works…
www.currentmarketvaluation.com
August 21, 2025 at 8:12 PM
For more info on how jobs data has been used to predict recessions, and the data we use in our models: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/sahm-...
More info here, including some different ways to assess the data: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/margi... (e.g. as a % of total market value, the amount of debt doesn't look too out of the ordinary) (3/3)
Margin Debt Indicates Stock Market sentiment is Neutral
Total margin debt in the US is at $918M, indicating the stock market sentiment is Neutral.
www.currentmarketvaluation.com
August 2, 2025 at 7:31 PM
More info here, including some different ways to assess the data: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/margi... (e.g. as a % of total market value, the amount of debt doesn't look too out of the ordinary) (3/3)
When margin debt increases, the overall level of risk in the market increases too. If the stock market tumbles, the value of the collateral falls, and investors need to sell the stocks to pay the loan (a "margin call"). At scale, this theoretically could kick off a pretty wild feedback loop. (2/3)
August 2, 2025 at 7:28 PM
When margin debt increases, the overall level of risk in the market increases too. If the stock market tumbles, the value of the collateral falls, and investors need to sell the stocks to pay the loan (a "margin call"). At scale, this theoretically could kick off a pretty wild feedback loop. (2/3)