Current Market Valuation
@currentmarketval.bsky.social
CMV tracks long-term stock market valuation models, as well as market sentiment and economic indicators. https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com
(Our posts are not financial advice.)
(Our posts are not financial advice.)
Closing out 2025 with unemployment creeping up... www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
U.S. Unemployment Rose in November Despite Job Gains
The 4.6% rate is the highest in more than four years, fueling questions about the U.S. economy’s underlying strength.
www.wsj.com
December 16, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Closing out 2025 with unemployment creeping up... www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
Reposted by Current Market Valuation
While markets are mellowing a bit, three major stock indexes closed at record highs on Thursday.
Plus: Farm drones, holiday shopping, and a recap of the week’s economic headlines.
Today on Marketplace.
Plus: Farm drones, holiday shopping, and a recap of the week’s economic headlines.
Today on Marketplace.
The stock market isn't the economy — but it's not nothing either
Plus: Farm drones, holiday shopping, and a recap of the week’s economic headlines.
mktplc.org
December 13, 2025 at 12:01 AM
While markets are mellowing a bit, three major stock indexes closed at record highs on Thursday.
Plus: Farm drones, holiday shopping, and a recap of the week’s economic headlines.
Today on Marketplace.
Plus: Farm drones, holiday shopping, and a recap of the week’s economic headlines.
Today on Marketplace.
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism jumped 9.1% to 47.9 in Dec, rebounding after the gov’t shutdown and beating expectations (44.1). Still below the neutral 50 line for a 4th month, signaling cautious sentiment. www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/202...
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index Brightens In December
The December reading of 47.9 marks a solid 9% monthly gain.
Consumer sentiment improved in December, as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly read on U.S. consumer conf
www.realclearmarkets.com
December 2, 2025 at 6:43 PM
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism jumped 9.1% to 47.9 in Dec, rebounding after the gov’t shutdown and beating expectations (44.1). Still below the neutral 50 line for a 4th month, signaling cautious sentiment. www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/202...
Dollar Index slipped to 99.3, a 2-week low, as weak data and dovish Fed commentary boost expectations for a final 2025 rate cut. Markets now price an 87% chance of a cut next week.
December 1, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Dollar Index slipped to 99.3, a 2-week low, as weak data and dovish Fed commentary boost expectations for a final 2025 rate cut. Markets now price an 87% chance of a cut next week.
The S&P 500 is down 0.2% this month, on track for its first monthly decline since April.
November 28, 2025 at 5:42 PM
The S&P 500 is down 0.2% this month, on track for its first monthly decline since April.
US data showed soft September retail sales and a sharp ADP hiring slowdown, reinforcing signals of cooling demand. Fed officials Waller and Williams voiced support for a year-end cut, and markets now price an ~87% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month.
November 28, 2025 at 4:59 PM
US data showed soft September retail sales and a sharp ADP hiring slowdown, reinforcing signals of cooling demand. Fed officials Waller and Williams voiced support for a year-end cut, and markets now price an ~87% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month.
US 10-year yield falls below 4% as markets sharply boost Fed cut odds—now ~85% for December vs. ~39% last week, with more cuts priced through 2026. Reports Kevin Hassett may be the next Fed Chair and solid data + expected FDIC SLR relief are also lifting Treasuries.
November 28, 2025 at 4:57 PM
US 10-year yield falls below 4% as markets sharply boost Fed cut odds—now ~85% for December vs. ~39% last week, with more cuts priced through 2026. Reports Kevin Hassett may be the next Fed Chair and solid data + expected FDIC SLR relief are also lifting Treasuries.
Tech layoffs, continued inflation and tariff woes...Consumer sentiment is now at all time low.
November 18, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Tech layoffs, continued inflation and tariff woes...Consumer sentiment is now at all time low.
Reposted by Current Market Valuation
President Trump’s use of broad powers to impose his signature tariffs faced a barrage of skeptical questions at the Supreme Court on Wednesday that signal it may be ready to intervene
Supreme Court's Skepticism on Trump Tariffs Means Uncertainty Reigns
President Donald Trump’s use of broad powers to impose his signature tariffs faced a barrage of skeptical questions at the Supreme Court on Wednesday that signal it may be ready to intervene.
bloom.bg
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 AM
President Trump’s use of broad powers to impose his signature tariffs faced a barrage of skeptical questions at the Supreme Court on Wednesday that signal it may be ready to intervene
Is there an AI bubble? If so, tech valuations could be teetering on the edge. Our own indicators have entered into unprecedented levels of overvaluation. Despite this, the attitude still seems to be: as long as the music keeps playing, keep dancing. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
OpenAI, Nvidia Fuel $1 Trillion AI Market With Web of Circular Deals
A wave of deals and partnerships are escalating concerns that the trillion-dollar AI boom is being propped up by interconnected business transactions.
www.bloomberg.com
October 27, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Is there an AI bubble? If so, tech valuations could be teetering on the edge. Our own indicators have entered into unprecedented levels of overvaluation. Despite this, the attitude still seems to be: as long as the music keeps playing, keep dancing. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Reposted by Current Market Valuation
Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to let him oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Trump Asks Supreme Court to Let Him Fire Fed’s Lisa Cook
President Donald Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to let him fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook while she fights his attempt to oust her, pulling the justices into a high-profile legal battle with major implications for the US central bank’s independence.
bloom.bg
September 18, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to let him oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
If we had our way, the focus would be on tamping down on forward-looking guidance instead. They're more often wrong than right and make management nervous about missing the mark, leading to questionable short-term decision making. (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...)
September 17, 2025 at 8:36 PM
If we had our way, the focus would be on tamping down on forward-looking guidance instead. They're more often wrong than right and make management nervous about missing the mark, leading to questionable short-term decision making. (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...)
There are pros and cons to this. Perhaps looking to Europe, which eliminated quarterly reporting reqts 10 years ago, sheds the most light. Most companies didn't change anything because investors still demanded increased transparency.
Donald Trump calls on US companies to ditch quarterly reporting on.ft.com/3Ka6zjf
Donald Trump calls on US companies to ditch quarterly reporting
US president says taking a quarterly view on company is ‘not good’
on.ft.com
September 17, 2025 at 8:12 PM
There are pros and cons to this. Perhaps looking to Europe, which eliminated quarterly reporting reqts 10 years ago, sheds the most light. Most companies didn't change anything because investors still demanded increased transparency.
Reposted by Current Market Valuation
WWJPD? That stands for: What Will Jay Powell Do? As in, that’s what all the Fed-watchers and economists are wondering as unemployment claims climb.
Today on Marketplace.
Today on Marketplace.
WWJPD?
That stands for: What Will Jay Powell Do? As in, that’s what all the Fed-watchers and economists are wondering as unemployment claims climb.
mktplc.org
August 21, 2025 at 11:34 PM
WWJPD? That stands for: What Will Jay Powell Do? As in, that’s what all the Fed-watchers and economists are wondering as unemployment claims climb.
Today on Marketplace.
Today on Marketplace.
As many market indicators point towards a potential catalyzing event toward correction, jobs data will continue to be critical to watch. But if the market decides the govt itself is no longer a trustworthy data source, then we enter more perilous territory. thehill.com/business/545...
thehill.com
August 21, 2025 at 8:08 PM
As many market indicators point towards a potential catalyzing event toward correction, jobs data will continue to be critical to watch. But if the market decides the govt itself is no longer a trustworthy data source, then we enter more perilous territory. thehill.com/business/545...
Let’s do a deeper dive into Margin Debt:
Right now it's at its second-highest point ever. (This is the amount of money borrowed to invest in the market.) With interest rates as high as they are now, this is pretty bullish behavior. (1/3)
Right now it's at its second-highest point ever. (This is the amount of money borrowed to invest in the market.) With interest rates as high as they are now, this is pretty bullish behavior. (1/3)
August 2, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Let’s do a deeper dive into Margin Debt:
Right now it's at its second-highest point ever. (This is the amount of money borrowed to invest in the market.) With interest rates as high as they are now, this is pretty bullish behavior. (1/3)
Right now it's at its second-highest point ever. (This is the amount of money borrowed to invest in the market.) With interest rates as high as they are now, this is pretty bullish behavior. (1/3)
Rates holding steady...For how long? More are betting that it'll be a while longer yet. "Interest-rate futures showed traders pared back the probability of a September rate cut to about 40%, from around 60% prior to the decision."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Powell Bucks Pressure, Dissents in Showing Resolve on Inflation
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell shrugged off pressure from the White House and rejected arguments for an interest-rate cut from two dissenting officials, maintaining that the central bank needed t...
www.bloomberg.com
July 31, 2025 at 2:43 AM
Rates holding steady...For how long? More are betting that it'll be a while longer yet. "Interest-rate futures showed traders pared back the probability of a September rate cut to about 40%, from around 60% prior to the decision."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Just bumping this as a reminder...
“Naming a ‘shadow’ Fed Chair is dollar-negative...conflicting signals between the official Chair and a perceived ‘shadow’ figure will increase market confusion, lead to mixed policy expectations, and erode the Fed’s image as a non-partisan institution.” 👀
Treasuries Rally, Dollar Slumps as Trump Eyes Powell Successor
The dollar fell and US Treasuries rallied after a report that President Donald Trump is considering naming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor well before the incumbent’s term is scheduled...
www.bloomberg.com
July 24, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Just bumping this as a reminder...
It remains a bit of a head-scratcher that the admin continues to jawbone the Fed for cuts while touting the economy’s strength. It’s a mixed message: “Everything’s great! Now hit the panic button.” Certainly an unconventional approach…
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
July 21, 2025 at 12:34 AM
It remains a bit of a head-scratcher that the admin continues to jawbone the Fed for cuts while touting the economy’s strength. It’s a mixed message: “Everything’s great! Now hit the panic button.” Certainly an unconventional approach…
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Current Market Valuation
More than 90% of the economists polled by the Financial Times were either somewhat concerned or very concerned about the safe-haven role of US dollar denominated assets over the next five to 10 years https://on.ft.com/3GesC6U
June 29, 2025 at 6:20 PM
More than 90% of the economists polled by the Financial Times were either somewhat concerned or very concerned about the safe-haven role of US dollar denominated assets over the next five to 10 years https://on.ft.com/3GesC6U
The US strikes Iran and the Senate is teetering on the edge of voting for a bill that will add trillions to the national debt tally. The market? Hitting new highs.
Our latest data and analysis dropped today: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/members/dash...
Our latest data and analysis dropped today: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/members/dash...
Data Driven US Stock Market Valuation and Analysis
Our evaluation of simple, fundamental valuation indicators suggests that the market is currently Fairly Valued.
www.currentmarketvaluation.com
June 29, 2025 at 1:49 AM
The US strikes Iran and the Senate is teetering on the edge of voting for a bill that will add trillions to the national debt tally. The market? Hitting new highs.
Our latest data and analysis dropped today: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/members/dash...
Our latest data and analysis dropped today: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/members/dash...
“Naming a ‘shadow’ Fed Chair is dollar-negative...conflicting signals between the official Chair and a perceived ‘shadow’ figure will increase market confusion, lead to mixed policy expectations, and erode the Fed’s image as a non-partisan institution.” 👀
Treasuries Rally, Dollar Slumps as Trump Eyes Powell Successor
The dollar fell and US Treasuries rallied after a report that President Donald Trump is considering naming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor well before the incumbent’s term is scheduled...
www.bloomberg.com
June 27, 2025 at 1:28 AM
“Naming a ‘shadow’ Fed Chair is dollar-negative...conflicting signals between the official Chair and a perceived ‘shadow’ figure will increase market confusion, lead to mixed policy expectations, and erode the Fed’s image as a non-partisan institution.” 👀
In a time of extreme fiscal, monetary and geopolitical uncertainty, Fed is likely to hold steady. For equity valuation, this pause reinforces a key tension: the economy remains relatively stable, but policy uncertainty is keeping risk premiums elevated. www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/econo...
Economic Policy Uncertainty shows that stock market sentiment is Very Pessimistic
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is currently 4.67 above than its historical average, signifying that the stock market is Very Pessimistic.
www.currentmarketvaluation.com
June 18, 2025 at 4:28 PM
In a time of extreme fiscal, monetary and geopolitical uncertainty, Fed is likely to hold steady. For equity valuation, this pause reinforces a key tension: the economy remains relatively stable, but policy uncertainty is keeping risk premiums elevated. www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/econo...
Is it a sign of success when AI search results include one of your charts? (But it links to someone else's website...) Asking for a friend. #buffettindicator
June 17, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Is it a sign of success when AI search results include one of your charts? (But it links to someone else's website...) Asking for a friend. #buffettindicator
FWIW Sahm Rule still "normal" but this is something worth keeping a close eye on. #recessionindicator
Another datapoint this week showing the labor market is clearly deteriorating, driven by slow hiring. It's the type of dynamic that could slow down the income-driven expansion seen in recent years.
June 15, 2025 at 6:18 PM
FWIW Sahm Rule still "normal" but this is something worth keeping a close eye on. #recessionindicator