Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
November 30, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
Great to join the In The Money Pod earlier this week to talk about the 2 hedge fund secrets no one in the industry dares to say out loud and some thoughts on how to navigate a late cycle environment.
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
Ex–Bridgewater Insider Reveals the Hedge Fund Secret No One Talks About
👉 Click Here to Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/@inthemoneypod?sub_confirmation=1
Ex–Bridgewater Insider Reveals the Hedge Fund Secret No One Talks About | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
Are…
youtu.be
November 30, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Great to join the In The Money Pod earlier this week to talk about the 2 hedge fund secrets no one in the industry dares to say out loud and some thoughts on how to navigate a late cycle environment.
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 29, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
Aussie inflation was already above the RBA mandate and now it looks to be rising further. Likely means the RBA will be on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
November 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Aussie inflation was already above the RBA mandate and now it looks to be rising further. Likely means the RBA will be on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
Any time I talk about the macro dynamics of the US housing market it sparks a lot of interest, so I'm making it my free blog app piece of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
November 29, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Any time I talk about the macro dynamics of the US housing market it sparks a lot of interest, so I'm making it my free blog app piece of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Since its hard to quickly substitute to domestic production & foreign retaliation comes, tariffs mostly end up being a tax hike on domestic HH and Biz that does little to change the external deficit over a timeframe anyone cares about. YTD view looks through noise of front running:
November 28, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Since its hard to quickly substitute to domestic production & foreign retaliation comes, tariffs mostly end up being a tax hike on domestic HH and Biz that does little to change the external deficit over a timeframe anyone cares about. YTD view looks through noise of front running:
Tarriff collections keep slowly creeping up and now represent a roughly 1% of GDP tax hike since the new admin took over.
November 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Tarriff collections keep slowly creeping up and now represent a roughly 1% of GDP tax hike since the new admin took over.
Forget the turkey and the fixings, the apple salad is the star of the Thanksgiving meal!
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
November 27, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Forget the turkey and the fixings, the apple salad is the star of the Thanksgiving meal!
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
Apples, green grapes, walnuts, dates, marshmallows and a whole lotta mayo.
A lot of rejoicing that the Beige book confirms a 25bps cut in Dec (instead of Jan) which of course doesn't amount to a hill of beans for the economy compared to the fact that the labor market is contracting.
November 26, 2025 at 10:34 PM
A lot of rejoicing that the Beige book confirms a 25bps cut in Dec (instead of Jan) which of course doesn't amount to a hill of beans for the economy compared to the fact that the labor market is contracting.
Folks hoping that homes become affordable have one path to purchase a home - just hold off for about 10 years until their incomes to rise enough to pay today's sky high prices.
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Folks hoping that homes become affordable have one path to purchase a home - just hold off for about 10 years until their incomes to rise enough to pay today's sky high prices.
Easy Money Hopes Lean on Tough Reality
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
November 26, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Easy Money Hopes Lean on Tough Reality
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
The last time that US homes were this unaffordable was at the peak of the housing boom. It's going to take far more than 50bps drop in mortgage rates before there is a sustainable bottoming and reacceleration in the housing market.
November 25, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The last time that US homes were this unaffordable was at the peak of the housing boom. It's going to take far more than 50bps drop in mortgage rates before there is a sustainable bottoming and reacceleration in the housing market.
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
November 25, 2025 at 11:30 AM
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Everyone feels like a genius today.
November 25, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Everyone feels like a genius today.
While managed futures ETFs often have higher expense ratios than typical ETFs, the fees remain far lower for retail investors than the vast majority of mutual funds running similar strategies and far lower than traditional 2&20 LP investments.
November 24, 2025 at 8:31 PM
While managed futures ETFs often have higher expense ratios than typical ETFs, the fees remain far lower for retail investors than the vast majority of mutual funds running similar strategies and far lower than traditional 2&20 LP investments.
The Haunting of Abe’s Ghost
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
November 24, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The Haunting of Abe’s Ghost
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Another good sign from this week's PMI data that European economic conditions are holding up well.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
November 23, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Another good sign from this week's PMI data that European economic conditions are holding up well.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
The challenge with any late cycle environment maintaining a sense of the macro economic reality even when market expectations are extended. More thoughts from my recent November macro webinar:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbfB...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbfB...
Unlimited Macro Webinar Nov 2025
Sharing insights into global economic conditions, Federal Reserve policy shifts, evolving trade dynamics, and the impact of the U.S. government shutdown.
Recorded Nov 11 2025
www.youtube.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The challenge with any late cycle environment maintaining a sense of the macro economic reality even when market expectations are extended. More thoughts from my recent November macro webinar:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbfB...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbfB...
For all the hopes that lower mortgage rates would kick off a new round of housing strength, this week's existing home sales data confirmed transaction activity remains woefully depressed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
November 22, 2025 at 6:13 PM
For all the hopes that lower mortgage rates would kick off a new round of housing strength, this week's existing home sales data confirmed transaction activity remains woefully depressed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
Some signs in this week's data that UK inflation is now moving down consistently, which should provide some room for the BoE to deliver much needed easing and with it lower rates and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 22, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Some signs in this week's data that UK inflation is now moving down consistently, which should provide some room for the BoE to deliver much needed easing and with it lower rates and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
The AI mania has gotten pretty extreme when all you see is anger from these investors at the suggestion the tech could be as impactful as personal computing over time.
November 22, 2025 at 3:09 PM
The AI mania has gotten pretty extreme when all you see is anger from these investors at the suggestion the tech could be as impactful as personal computing over time.
Just the blurb from this week's blog app piece penciling out the AI impact on productivity generated a robust discussion, so figured I'd make it my freebie of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/publish/post...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/publish/post...
AI’s Modest Productivity Boost
3 years into widespread adoption, AI has delivered a ~0.4% productivity growth bump, putting it on pace with PC-scale lift at best (in ~1/2 the time) rather than radically reshaping the macroeconomy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Just the blurb from this week's blog app piece penciling out the AI impact on productivity generated a robust discussion, so figured I'd make it my freebie of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/publish/post...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/publish/post...
Managed futures hedge fund managers have shown no outperformance persistence relative to their peers. If a manager was in the top quartile over the previous year they only have a 25% change of being top quartile in each of the subsequent 5 years.
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
November 21, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Managed futures hedge fund managers have shown no outperformance persistence relative to their peers. If a manager was in the top quartile over the previous year they only have a 25% change of being top quartile in each of the subsequent 5 years.
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
Your irregular reminder that PMI/ISM surveys are random noise which are best faded vs. followed, including the services PMI released today.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
November 21, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Your irregular reminder that PMI/ISM surveys are random noise which are best faded vs. followed, including the services PMI released today.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
Boy That Escalated Quickly
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
November 21, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Boy That Escalated Quickly
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...