Danbischof
@danbischof.bsky.social
danbischof.com
Political Scientist: studying democracy with experiments & data
Professor | University of Münster
Associate Professor | Aarhus University
(he/him | "Sie" als Anrede brauche ich nicht)
Political Scientist: studying democracy with experiments & data
Professor | University of Münster
Associate Professor | Aarhus University
(he/him | "Sie" als Anrede brauche ich nicht)
Thanks: Special thanks go out to @brendannyhan.bsky.social . Without him pushing us to write this up, we would have not written the paper! We also thank everyone else who has commented on this paper.
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Thanks: Special thanks go out to @brendannyhan.bsky.social . Without him pushing us to write this up, we would have not written the paper! We also thank everyone else who has commented on this paper.
🧠 Potential mechanism:
In our surveys, respondents rarely imagine a concrete social referent.
- No interviewer.
- No audience.
- No visible evaluator.
No referent -> no pressure.
In our surveys, respondents rarely imagine a concrete social referent.
- No interviewer.
- No audience.
- No visible evaluator.
No referent -> no pressure.
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
🧠 Potential mechanism:
In our surveys, respondents rarely imagine a concrete social referent.
- No interviewer.
- No audience.
- No visible evaluator.
No referent -> no pressure.
In our surveys, respondents rarely imagine a concrete social referent.
- No interviewer.
- No audience.
- No visible evaluator.
No referent -> no pressure.
📉 Main take-aways:
No systematic change in turnout, racism, immigration attitudes, donations, etc.
No detectable distortion.
No systematic change in turnout, racism, immigration attitudes, donations, etc.
No detectable distortion.
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
📉 Main take-aways:
No systematic change in turnout, racism, immigration attitudes, donations, etc.
No detectable distortion.
No systematic change in turnout, racism, immigration attitudes, donations, etc.
No detectable distortion.
🔬 The manipulation worked.
Some treatments increased perceived observability by quite a lot.
So people felt watched.
But even then...
Some treatments increased perceived observability by quite a lot.
So people felt watched.
But even then...
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
🔬 The manipulation worked.
Some treatments increased perceived observability by quite a lot.
So people felt watched.
But even then...
Some treatments increased perceived observability by quite a lot.
So people felt watched.
But even then...
🧪📊 Research design:
We ran large, preregistered survey experiments in the US (N=5,000) and Denmark.
We manipulated whether respondents felt observed: by researchers, by other citizens, by "the public.""
If social desirability bias is active, answers should adapt to being observed.
They didn't.
We ran large, preregistered survey experiments in the US (N=5,000) and Denmark.
We manipulated whether respondents felt observed: by researchers, by other citizens, by "the public.""
If social desirability bias is active, answers should adapt to being observed.
They didn't.
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
🧪📊 Research design:
We ran large, preregistered survey experiments in the US (N=5,000) and Denmark.
We manipulated whether respondents felt observed: by researchers, by other citizens, by "the public.""
If social desirability bias is active, answers should adapt to being observed.
They didn't.
We ran large, preregistered survey experiments in the US (N=5,000) and Denmark.
We manipulated whether respondents felt observed: by researchers, by other citizens, by "the public.""
If social desirability bias is active, answers should adapt to being observed.
They didn't.
🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
Well, ok. Thanks Harvard dataverse.
February 4, 2026 at 9:19 PM
Well, ok. Thanks Harvard dataverse.
All of this data from the "Paths to Power" project is pretty fascinating specifically from a simple descriptive side:
The background of German MPs is quite heterogenous (with Uni Münster pushing quite a bit) in comparison to e.g. the UK (Oxbridge, of course, dominating).
ptp.isv.sv.uio.no/ptp/
The background of German MPs is quite heterogenous (with Uni Münster pushing quite a bit) in comparison to e.g. the UK (Oxbridge, of course, dominating).
ptp.isv.sv.uio.no/ptp/
January 14, 2026 at 12:42 PM
All of this data from the "Paths to Power" project is pretty fascinating specifically from a simple descriptive side:
The background of German MPs is quite heterogenous (with Uni Münster pushing quite a bit) in comparison to e.g. the UK (Oxbridge, of course, dominating).
ptp.isv.sv.uio.no/ptp/
The background of German MPs is quite heterogenous (with Uni Münster pushing quite a bit) in comparison to e.g. the UK (Oxbridge, of course, dominating).
ptp.isv.sv.uio.no/ptp/
Who‘s conducting this field experiment in Hamburg?
January 12, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Who‘s conducting this field experiment in Hamburg?
As I've heard the idea this week several times
@epssnet.bsky.social #epss2026:
There is no limit of being co-author only on two papers. No need to start strategically deleting names...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
@epssnet.bsky.social #epss2026:
There is no limit of being co-author only on two papers. No need to start strategically deleting names...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
November 7, 2025 at 9:18 AM
As I've heard the idea this week several times
@epssnet.bsky.social #epss2026:
There is no limit of being co-author only on two papers. No need to start strategically deleting names...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
@epssnet.bsky.social #epss2026:
There is no limit of being co-author only on two papers. No need to start strategically deleting names...
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
I'm back in Zurich to give a talk tomorrow at the CIS Colloquium:
"How Citizens Perceive Others: The Role of Social Norms for Democracies"
I'll be around until Friday and back a few times before Christmas; happy to meet up if you're around and want to chat!☕
@ciseth.bsky.social @ipz.bsky.social
"How Citizens Perceive Others: The Role of Social Norms for Democracies"
I'll be around until Friday and back a few times before Christmas; happy to meet up if you're around and want to chat!☕
@ciseth.bsky.social @ipz.bsky.social
October 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
I'm back in Zurich to give a talk tomorrow at the CIS Colloquium:
"How Citizens Perceive Others: The Role of Social Norms for Democracies"
I'll be around until Friday and back a few times before Christmas; happy to meet up if you're around and want to chat!☕
@ciseth.bsky.social @ipz.bsky.social
"How Citizens Perceive Others: The Role of Social Norms for Democracies"
I'll be around until Friday and back a few times before Christmas; happy to meet up if you're around and want to chat!☕
@ciseth.bsky.social @ipz.bsky.social
Die Info zu einer Studie kam von einer dritten Quelle. Warum sie wieder aus dem Artikel verschwand? Wissen wir nicht. Sie musste raus. Punkt.
August 11, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Die Info zu einer Studie kam von einer dritten Quelle. Warum sie wieder aus dem Artikel verschwand? Wissen wir nicht. Sie musste raus. Punkt.
** Nochmal: Korrektur zum Korrekturhinweis:**
Trotz Auflösung wurde weiter wild spekuliert (darum gelöscht von mir): Die Journalistin hat *nichts* blind von einer KI übernommen... 🧵
Trotz Auflösung wurde weiter wild spekuliert (darum gelöscht von mir): Die Journalistin hat *nichts* blind von einer KI übernommen... 🧵
August 11, 2025 at 6:52 PM
** Nochmal: Korrektur zum Korrekturhinweis:**
Trotz Auflösung wurde weiter wild spekuliert (darum gelöscht von mir): Die Journalistin hat *nichts* blind von einer KI übernommen... 🧵
Trotz Auflösung wurde weiter wild spekuliert (darum gelöscht von mir): Die Journalistin hat *nichts* blind von einer KI übernommen... 🧵
Korrektur: Die Studie kam von einem Gesprächspartner.
Das Problem bleibt; Quelle blind vertraut.
Das Problem bleibt; Quelle blind vertraut.
August 11, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Korrektur: Die Studie kam von einem Gesprächspartner.
Das Problem bleibt; Quelle blind vertraut.
Das Problem bleibt; Quelle blind vertraut.
Ja, weil es ohne Demokratie keinen fucking Bus für sie gäbe, kein Essen in der Kita, keine Bildung.
Das sollen die bitte lernen!
Das sollen die bitte lernen!
August 11, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Ja, weil es ohne Demokratie keinen fucking Bus für sie gäbe, kein Essen in der Kita, keine Bildung.
Das sollen die bitte lernen!
Das sollen die bitte lernen!
Klar, weil es nun eine „linke“ Haltung ist für Demokratie sich einzusetzen.
Wann hört ihr den Knall endlich?
Wann hört ihr den Knall endlich?
August 11, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Klar, weil es nun eine „linke“ Haltung ist für Demokratie sich einzusetzen.
Wann hört ihr den Knall endlich?
Wann hört ihr den Knall endlich?
Um ehrlich zu sein, glaubt ein Großteil der Gesellschaft das. Die Kirche überrascht mich da am wenigsten.
August 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Um ehrlich zu sein, glaubt ein Großteil der Gesellschaft das. Die Kirche überrascht mich da am wenigsten.
I'm all in for healthy food but it doesnt need to be as nasty as this.
Love the appendix though, super interesting to see what the groups ate.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Love the appendix though, super interesting to see what the groups ate.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
August 5, 2025 at 1:28 PM
I'm all in for healthy food but it doesnt need to be as nasty as this.
Love the appendix though, super interesting to see what the groups ate.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Love the appendix though, super interesting to see what the groups ate.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
But what do we mean by sustainability? 🌿
Inspired by how the government defines it and including 17 sustainability goals, for more see for instance here:
www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schw...
Inspired by how the government defines it and including 17 sustainability goals, for more see for instance here:
www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schw...
August 4, 2025 at 8:10 AM
But what do we mean by sustainability? 🌿
Inspired by how the government defines it and including 17 sustainability goals, for more see for instance here:
www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schw...
Inspired by how the government defines it and including 17 sustainability goals, for more see for instance here:
www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schw...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Wait a minute...Berlin...nowhere to be found?!? No Berghain? No Spree? Ufta...
Wait a minute...Berlin...nowhere to be found?!? No Berghain? No Spree? Ufta...
July 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Wait a minute...Berlin...nowhere to be found?!? No Berghain? No Spree? Ufta...
Wait a minute...Berlin...nowhere to be found?!? No Berghain? No Spree? Ufta...
📊 Our findings:
Counties with more bans =
⬆️ More protests
⬆️ More support for the Greens
⬆️ Long-term shift in political alignment
Democratic repression didn't kill dissent. It helped organize it.
Counties with more bans =
⬆️ More protests
⬆️ More support for the Greens
⬆️ Long-term shift in political alignment
Democratic repression didn't kill dissent. It helped organize it.
July 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
📊 Our findings:
Counties with more bans =
⬆️ More protests
⬆️ More support for the Greens
⬆️ Long-term shift in political alignment
Democratic repression didn't kill dissent. It helped organize it.
Counties with more bans =
⬆️ More protests
⬆️ More support for the Greens
⬆️ Long-term shift in political alignment
Democratic repression didn't kill dissent. It helped organize it.
🧪 We built a unique dataset based on archival work:
✅ 1,095 individuals banned
✅ Local protest data
✅ Voting data over decades
✅ Survey evidence
Across multiple sources and levels of analysis, one pattern stands out: backlash.
✅ 1,095 individuals banned
✅ Local protest data
✅ Voting data over decades
✅ Survey evidence
Across multiple sources and levels of analysis, one pattern stands out: backlash.
July 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
🧪 We built a unique dataset based on archival work:
✅ 1,095 individuals banned
✅ Local protest data
✅ Voting data over decades
✅ Survey evidence
Across multiple sources and levels of analysis, one pattern stands out: backlash.
✅ 1,095 individuals banned
✅ Local protest data
✅ Voting data over decades
✅ Survey evidence
Across multiple sources and levels of analysis, one pattern stands out: backlash.
⚠️ In 1972, West Germany adopted the "Anti-Radical Decree" 🧾
The goal: keep suspected left-wing extremists out of public jobs — especially teachers.
Result? Over 1,000 people were banned. Millions were screened.
But that's not the full story...
The goal: keep suspected left-wing extremists out of public jobs — especially teachers.
Result? Over 1,000 people were banned. Millions were screened.
But that's not the full story...
July 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
⚠️ In 1972, West Germany adopted the "Anti-Radical Decree" 🧾
The goal: keep suspected left-wing extremists out of public jobs — especially teachers.
Result? Over 1,000 people were banned. Millions were screened.
But that's not the full story...
The goal: keep suspected left-wing extremists out of public jobs — especially teachers.
Result? Over 1,000 people were banned. Millions were screened.
But that's not the full story...
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
July 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2