Dan Gamarnik
@dangamarnik.bsky.social
@UCSB PhD candidate in PoliSci | @UChicago MA |fmr @nsfgrfp Fellow | Studying IR conflict | Some jokes | Are RTs endorsements? Who can say
https://dangamarnik.com
https://dangamarnik.com
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia @apsrjournal.bsky.social
@edebruin.bsky.social
@gabriellalevy2.bsky.social
Livia Schubiger
@miweintraub83.bsky.social
Very interesting article- I recommend reading
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
@edebruin.bsky.social
@gabriellalevy2.bsky.social
Livia Schubiger
@miweintraub83.bsky.social
Very interesting article- I recommend reading
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia - Volume 119 Issue 4
www.cambridge.org
November 17, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia @apsrjournal.bsky.social
@edebruin.bsky.social
@gabriellalevy2.bsky.social
Livia Schubiger
@miweintraub83.bsky.social
Very interesting article- I recommend reading
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
@edebruin.bsky.social
@gabriellalevy2.bsky.social
Livia Schubiger
@miweintraub83.bsky.social
Very interesting article- I recommend reading
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
🚨New paper🚨: Are you interested in key debates about civil war and counterinsurgency? Like questions about causal inference but wish you had a better method for dealing with spillover and carryover effects? Then check out our new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects: Airstrikes and insurgent violence in the Iraq War
Social scientists now routinely draw on high-frequency, high-granularity ''microlevel'' data to estimate the causal effects of subnational interventions. To date, most researchers aggregate these data...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 1:10 PM
🚨New paper🚨: Are you interested in key debates about civil war and counterinsurgency? Like questions about causal inference but wish you had a better method for dealing with spillover and carryover effects? Then check out our new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
Analysis of references between 1990 to 2024 shows that there is a decline in book referencing (52% to 28%) in polsci journals 😮
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
From Bookworm to Browser: The Decline of Books in Political Science Scholarship | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
From Bookworm to Browser: The Decline of Books in Political Science Scholarship
www.cambridge.org
October 24, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Analysis of references between 1990 to 2024 shows that there is a decline in book referencing (52% to 28%) in polsci journals 😮
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
7. But the # of protests in Trump-leaning counties in June 2025 was comparable to those in Jun 2020, during the height of the Black Lives Matter uprising. But unlike in 2020, that trend has held. Since April, the median protest county in the US cast more votes for Trump than Harris.
October 16, 2025 at 8:11 PM
7. But the # of protests in Trump-leaning counties in June 2025 was comparable to those in Jun 2020, during the height of the Black Lives Matter uprising. But unlike in 2020, that trend has held. Since April, the median protest county in the US cast more votes for Trump than Harris.
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
#OpenAccess from July 2025 -
Spraying Conflict: Aerial Drug Eradication and Armed Violence in Colombia - cup.org/473YHcr
- Juan Felipe Campos-Contreras, Camilo Nieto-Matiz & @llschenoni.bsky.social
Spraying Conflict: Aerial Drug Eradication and Armed Violence in Colombia - cup.org/473YHcr
- Juan Felipe Campos-Contreras, Camilo Nieto-Matiz & @llschenoni.bsky.social
September 22, 2025 at 5:00 PM
#OpenAccess from July 2025 -
Spraying Conflict: Aerial Drug Eradication and Armed Violence in Colombia - cup.org/473YHcr
- Juan Felipe Campos-Contreras, Camilo Nieto-Matiz & @llschenoni.bsky.social
Spraying Conflict: Aerial Drug Eradication and Armed Violence in Colombia - cup.org/473YHcr
- Juan Felipe Campos-Contreras, Camilo Nieto-Matiz & @llschenoni.bsky.social
I should also announce that I'm on the job market. Feel free to look around my website as well!
www.dangamarnik.com/home/cv
www.dangamarnik.com/home/cv
September 1, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I should also announce that I'm on the job market. Feel free to look around my website as well!
www.dangamarnik.com/home/cv
www.dangamarnik.com/home/cv
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
There's going to be a lot of dumb political noise following this decision, so it's worth being clear about the key finding. It does not ban tariffs. It simply says that you have to convince Congress.
BOOM. The federal appeals court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, because they are.
There's no national emergency, and so the power to tariff a country rests with Congress.
Trump admin has lost at every stage of the process, but stay tuned for the Supremes to chime in.
There's no national emergency, and so the power to tariff a country rests with Congress.
Trump admin has lost at every stage of the process, but stay tuned for the Supremes to chime in.
August 29, 2025 at 10:09 PM
There's going to be a lot of dumb political noise following this decision, so it's worth being clear about the key finding. It does not ban tariffs. It simply says that you have to convince Congress.
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
For anyone interested, my PhD dissertation just got posted online! Finished everything just two months ago.
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
August 26, 2025 at 7:19 PM
For anyone interested, my PhD dissertation just got posted online! Finished everything just two months ago.
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
For anyone interested, my PhD dissertation just got posted online! Finished everything just two months ago.
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
August 26, 2025 at 7:19 PM
For anyone interested, my PhD dissertation just got posted online! Finished everything just two months ago.
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
It studies why governments directly fight conflicts with foreign rebel groups and the consequences of such conflicts (also known as extrastate conflicts).
escholarship.org/uc/item/8392...
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
If Sam Altman and the AI industry's vision for the future requires data centers everywhere operated by fusion power plants, it's not a vision. It's a hallucinatory fantasy.
interestingengineering.com/culture/sam-...
interestingengineering.com/culture/sam-...
Nuclear fusion can satisfy super AI's enormous energy appetite — Altman - Interesting Engineering
According to Altman, AI will require vast amounts of energy to operate, and nuclear fusion would be the best bet for its source.
interestingengineering.com
August 19, 2025 at 4:23 PM
If Sam Altman and the AI industry's vision for the future requires data centers everywhere operated by fusion power plants, it's not a vision. It's a hallucinatory fantasy.
interestingengineering.com/culture/sam-...
interestingengineering.com/culture/sam-...
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
Here is the chart showing the growth of reported protest over time, 2025 vs. 2017, referenced in the piece below.
August 13, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Here is the chart showing the growth of reported protest over time, 2025 vs. 2017, referenced in the piece below.
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
The sports thing is the only anti-trans thing that polls well, so they're going to force through every heinous rollback of our rights under the sports banner.
All because people refused to believe the science.
All because people refused to believe the science.
The Trump administration effectively created a de facto bathroom ban at Brown University and none of the major media is covering it, and if they do, they character it as about sports. This is how the trans visa ban was enacted and characterized.
www.advocate.com/news/transge...
www.advocate.com/news/transge...
Brown University is ‘functionally inaccessible’ to transgender students after Trump settlement
“Everyone I talked to thought it only applied to sports. But it applies to everything," one transgender student told The Advocate.
www.advocate.com
August 6, 2025 at 12:33 PM
The sports thing is the only anti-trans thing that polls well, so they're going to force through every heinous rollback of our rights under the sports banner.
All because people refused to believe the science.
All because people refused to believe the science.
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
Please never speak about how you were a “gifted kid” in middle school if you are 30+ years old. Talk about something you achieved after turning 21. Make it up if you must. We’ll never know on here.
August 2, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Please never speak about how you were a “gifted kid” in middle school if you are 30+ years old. Talk about something you achieved after turning 21. Make it up if you must. We’ll never know on here.
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
End of the month APSA eJobs update #polisky (there may be a few others listed today, will add later)
July 2024: 93 positions (62 assistant TT positions)
July 2025: 58 positions (40 assistant TT positions)
I exclude non-academic positions / PhD studentships from the total count.
July 2024: 93 positions (62 assistant TT positions)
July 2025: 58 positions (40 assistant TT positions)
I exclude non-academic positions / PhD studentships from the total count.
Aaaaand we are back with the APSA eJobs halfway through July check-in #polisky:
July 2024: 34 positions (19 assistant TT positions)
July 2025: 22 positions (12 assistant TT positions)
July 2024: 34 positions (19 assistant TT positions)
July 2025: 22 positions (12 assistant TT positions)
APSA eJobs year-to-year comparison #polisky:
June 2024: 41 positions (20 assistant TT positions)
June 2025: 29 positions (12 assistant TT positions)
June 2024: 41 positions (20 assistant TT positions)
June 2025: 29 positions (12 assistant TT positions)
July 31, 2025 at 1:09 PM
End of the month APSA eJobs update #polisky (there may be a few others listed today, will add later)
July 2024: 93 positions (62 assistant TT positions)
July 2025: 58 positions (40 assistant TT positions)
I exclude non-academic positions / PhD studentships from the total count.
July 2024: 93 positions (62 assistant TT positions)
July 2025: 58 positions (40 assistant TT positions)
I exclude non-academic positions / PhD studentships from the total count.
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
My new article with Mert Can Yilmaz out in Research & Politics! An investigation into what does drive differences between UCDP and ACLED data and a response to a series of unfounded claims made by Clionadh Raleigh et al in a 2023 article. (1/4) Read it here doi.org/10.1177/2053...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
doi.org
July 30, 2025 at 2:09 PM
My new article with Mert Can Yilmaz out in Research & Politics! An investigation into what does drive differences between UCDP and ACLED data and a response to a series of unfounded claims made by Clionadh Raleigh et al in a 2023 article. (1/4) Read it here doi.org/10.1177/2053...
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
Flowers (2025) introduces the HEX dataset to analyze global espionage exposures, revealing that most accused spies were state personnel motivated by money across 483 cases from 1946 to 2010.
academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...
academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...
July 22, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Flowers (2025) introduces the HEX dataset to analyze global espionage exposures, revealing that most accused spies were state personnel motivated by money across 483 cases from 1946 to 2010.
academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...
academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
Ozzy Osbourne, one of the inventors of heavy metal who became known as “Prince of Darkness,” died on Tuesday. He was 76. The news comes after he gave his final concert this month, closing out his career by reuniting the original lineup of Black Sabbath. https://trib.al/BmFKeBR
July 22, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Ozzy Osbourne, one of the inventors of heavy metal who became known as “Prince of Darkness,” died on Tuesday. He was 76. The news comes after he gave his final concert this month, closing out his career by reuniting the original lineup of Black Sabbath. https://trib.al/BmFKeBR
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
There’s so much interesting data in this latest by @adambonica.bsky.social on data and democracy. Highlights (or lowlights) to me include Supreme Court acting virtually opposite the lower courts, the U.S. being the biggest gerontocracy & low Dem turnout in 2024.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward
A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.
open.substack.com
July 19, 2025 at 12:36 PM
There’s so much interesting data in this latest by @adambonica.bsky.social on data and democracy. Highlights (or lowlights) to me include Supreme Court acting virtually opposite the lower courts, the U.S. being the biggest gerontocracy & low Dem turnout in 2024.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Reposted by Dan Gamarnik
An understudied type of conflict is wars between states and non-state actors outside the state's territory or "extrastate" wars. These include the Soviet-Afghan war, US war in Iraq/Afghanistan (post-regime change) & Israel's wars in Palestinian territories.
These have been increasing:
These have been increasing:
June 25, 2025 at 5:54 PM
An understudied type of conflict is wars between states and non-state actors outside the state's territory or "extrastate" wars. These include the Soviet-Afghan war, US war in Iraq/Afghanistan (post-regime change) & Israel's wars in Palestinian territories.
These have been increasing:
These have been increasing: