Daniel Zhao
@danielzhao.bsky.social
Glassdoor Chief Economist
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
Still no deterioration in unemployment insurance claims data:
Initial: 209,000 vs. 210,000 prior
Continuing: 1,827,000 vs. 1,865,000 prior
If anything, a slight improvement in continuing claims vs. same time last year.
Initial: 209,000 vs. 210,000 prior
Continuing: 1,827,000 vs. 1,865,000 prior
If anything, a slight improvement in continuing claims vs. same time last year.
January 29, 2026 at 1:43 PM
Still no deterioration in unemployment insurance claims data:
Initial: 209,000 vs. 210,000 prior
Continuing: 1,827,000 vs. 1,865,000 prior
If anything, a slight improvement in continuing claims vs. same time last year.
Initial: 209,000 vs. 210,000 prior
Continuing: 1,827,000 vs. 1,865,000 prior
If anything, a slight improvement in continuing claims vs. same time last year.
#$META employee count ended 2025 at 78,865, up +0.5% QoQ and +6% YoY. Despite recurring headlines about layoffs, they still have been expanding headcount, even if at a slower pace.
January 28, 2026 at 9:18 PM
#$META employee count ended 2025 at 78,865, up +0.5% QoQ and +6% YoY. Despite recurring headlines about layoffs, they still have been expanding headcount, even if at a slower pace.
New Census Bureau data estimates US population grew only 1.8m in the '25 estimate year*, slowest since '21 during Covid
Decline is mostly due to a drop in int'l migration, estimated at 2.7m in '24 down to 1.3m in '25 and projected to decline even further to 321k in '26
*Estimate year: Jul 1–Jun 30
Decline is mostly due to a drop in int'l migration, estimated at 2.7m in '24 down to 1.3m in '25 and projected to decline even further to 321k in '26
*Estimate year: Jul 1–Jun 30
January 27, 2026 at 3:45 PM
New Census Bureau data estimates US population grew only 1.8m in the '25 estimate year*, slowest since '21 during Covid
Decline is mostly due to a drop in int'l migration, estimated at 2.7m in '24 down to 1.3m in '25 and projected to decline even further to 321k in '26
*Estimate year: Jul 1–Jun 30
Decline is mostly due to a drop in int'l migration, estimated at 2.7m in '24 down to 1.3m in '25 and projected to decline even further to 321k in '26
*Estimate year: Jul 1–Jun 30
Initial UI claims up to 200,000 from 199,000 and continuing claims down to 1,849,000 from 1,875,000. Neither showing significant deterioration in the job market to start the year, consistent w/ what we've been seeing in claims for some time now.
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
January 22, 2026 at 1:41 PM
Initial UI claims up to 200,000 from 199,000 and continuing claims down to 1,849,000 from 1,875,000. Neither showing significant deterioration in the job market to start the year, consistent w/ what we've been seeing in claims for some time now.
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell last week to 198,000 from 207,000. Continuing claims down to 1,884,000 from 1,903,000.
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
January 15, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell last week to 198,000 from 207,000. Continuing claims down to 1,884,000 from 1,903,000.
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
A few mentions of increased demand for temporary/contract labor to let businesses stay flexible and not have to commit to full-time workers.
Seeing that trend in ASA Staffing Index (up YoY since 9/21), but not in temp help services employment
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Minneapolis Fed
Seeing that trend in ASA Staffing Index (up YoY since 9/21), but not in temp help services employment
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Minneapolis Fed
January 14, 2026 at 8:11 PM
A few mentions of increased demand for temporary/contract labor to let businesses stay flexible and not have to commit to full-time workers.
Seeing that trend in ASA Staffing Index (up YoY since 9/21), but not in temp help services employment
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Minneapolis Fed
Seeing that trend in ASA Staffing Index (up YoY since 9/21), but not in temp help services employment
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Minneapolis Fed
Interesting anecdote arguing AI is more likely to compete with offshore workers in the short-term given its current level of effectiveness.
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
January 14, 2026 at 8:04 PM
Interesting anecdote arguing AI is more likely to compete with offshore workers in the short-term given its current level of effectiveness.
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
Good call, I had been focusing on the % chgs by sector, not the # chgs. (If you'll excuse the quick & dirty chart) retail does explain a large part of this. So maybe the methodology chg to exclude internet sales will help much more to close the gap.
January 14, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Good call, I had been focusing on the % chgs by sector, not the # chgs. (If you'll excuse the quick & dirty chart) retail does explain a large part of this. So maybe the methodology chg to exclude internet sales will help much more to close the gap.
One possibly relevant note: In next month's report on Feb 11, applications "associated with internet sales" will be excluded from high-propensity & corporation applications (retroactively + fwd). Could help shrink the gap, but the sectoral distribution suggests to me that isn't the whole story
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January 14, 2026 at 3:29 PM
One possibly relevant note: In next month's report on Feb 11, applications "associated with internet sales" will be excluded from high-propensity & corporation applications (retroactively + fwd). Could help shrink the gap, but the sectoral distribution suggests to me that isn't the whole story
4/4
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FWIW, WBA (business applications with planned wages) seem more plausibly likely to predict actual employment growth from new businesses so this is relevant from a jobs growth POV.
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January 14, 2026 at 3:26 PM
FWIW, WBA (business applications with planned wages) seem more plausibly likely to predict actual employment growth from new businesses so this is relevant from a jobs growth POV.
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There's not an obvious sector explanation (say, somebody who sets up an etsy store as a side gig). Almost every sector has seen business applications with planned wages underperform business applications in total.
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January 14, 2026 at 3:17 PM
There's not an obvious sector explanation (say, somebody who sets up an etsy store as a side gig). Almost every sector has seen business applications with planned wages underperform business applications in total.
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In Dec 2025, new business applications fell 7% month-over-month, but they're still up 8% year-over-year.
Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
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Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
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January 14, 2026 at 3:15 PM
In Dec 2025, new business applications fell 7% month-over-month, but they're still up 8% year-over-year.
Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
1/
Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
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Population control adjustments* will also be delayed (my guess is due to the shutdown) from the usual Jan report to the Feb report instead, though Jan 2026 will be revised retroactively to incorporate the usual population control adjustment.
*These help account for shifting population trends
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*These help account for shifting population trends
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January 9, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Population control adjustments* will also be delayed (my guess is due to the shutdown) from the usual Jan report to the Feb report instead, though Jan 2026 will be revised retroactively to incorporate the usual population control adjustment.
*These help account for shifting population trends
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*These help account for shifting population trends
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In other methodological news: Benchmark revisions are coming in the Jan jobs report (due Feb 6) which are likely to sharply revise the Mar '25 jobs level downward.
An updated birth-death model will also be released which should hopefully reduce the size of benchmark revisions in the future.
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An updated birth-death model will also be released which should hopefully reduce the size of benchmark revisions in the future.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:50 PM
In other methodological news: Benchmark revisions are coming in the Jan jobs report (due Feb 6) which are likely to sharply revise the Mar '25 jobs level downward.
An updated birth-death model will also be released which should hopefully reduce the size of benchmark revisions in the future.
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An updated birth-death model will also be released which should hopefully reduce the size of benchmark revisions in the future.
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Workers part-time for economic reason ticked down slightly in December after spiking in November, though this figure remains elevated, pointing to more workers are being forced to take part-time jobs despite wanting full-time hours.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Workers part-time for economic reason ticked down slightly in December after spiking in November, though this figure remains elevated, pointing to more workers are being forced to take part-time jobs despite wanting full-time hours.
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Prime-age (25–54) labor force participation was flat while prime-age employment-population ratio ticked up 0.1pp. Both figures remain a touch below recent peaks but at a relatively healthy level overall, without sign of more dramatic deterioration.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:43 PM
Prime-age (25–54) labor force participation was flat while prime-age employment-population ratio ticked up 0.1pp. Both figures remain a touch below recent peaks but at a relatively healthy level overall, without sign of more dramatic deterioration.
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Black unemployment dropped to 7.5% after rising in November to 8.2%, though the rate still remains elevated.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Black unemployment dropped to 7.5% after rising in November to 8.2%, though the rate still remains elevated.
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Household survey was much more positive in today's report:
Unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% in December, from 4.5% in November.
November was revised down from 4.6% to 4.5% due to updated seasonal factors. The data are not revised mid-year, but seasonal factors are updated annually.
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Unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% in December, from 4.5% in November.
November was revised down from 4.6% to 4.5% due to updated seasonal factors. The data are not revised mid-year, but seasonal factors are updated annually.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:26 PM
Household survey was much more positive in today's report:
Unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% in December, from 4.5% in November.
November was revised down from 4.6% to 4.5% due to updated seasonal factors. The data are not revised mid-year, but seasonal factors are updated annually.
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Unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% in December, from 4.5% in November.
November was revised down from 4.6% to 4.5% due to updated seasonal factors. The data are not revised mid-year, but seasonal factors are updated annually.
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Average hourly earnings grew 3.8% year-over-year in December, up from 3.6% in November (revised up from 3.5%).
Production & nonsupervisory wage growth slowed to 3.6% in December, slowest pace since 2021.
(*Nonproduction & supervisory wage growth has been volatile)
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Production & nonsupervisory wage growth slowed to 3.6% in December, slowest pace since 2021.
(*Nonproduction & supervisory wage growth has been volatile)
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January 9, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Average hourly earnings grew 3.8% year-over-year in December, up from 3.6% in November (revised up from 3.5%).
Production & nonsupervisory wage growth slowed to 3.6% in December, slowest pace since 2021.
(*Nonproduction & supervisory wage growth has been volatile)
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Production & nonsupervisory wage growth slowed to 3.6% in December, slowest pace since 2021.
(*Nonproduction & supervisory wage growth has been volatile)
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Health care & social assistance and leisure & hospitality were the main drivers of jobs growth in H2 2025.
Almost every other major sector was flat or lost jobs in H2.
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Almost every other major sector was flat or lost jobs in H2.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Health care & social assistance and leisure & hospitality were the main drivers of jobs growth in H2 2025.
Almost every other major sector was flat or lost jobs in H2.
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Almost every other major sector was flat or lost jobs in H2.
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Manufacturing ends the year on a 8-month streak of consecutive job losses, capping a turbulent year of shifting tariff policy.
Manufacturing employment has been declining over the last few years, highlighting the difficulty of using policy to instantaneously reverse longer-term trends.
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Manufacturing employment has been declining over the last few years, highlighting the difficulty of using policy to instantaneously reverse longer-term trends.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:13 PM
Manufacturing ends the year on a 8-month streak of consecutive job losses, capping a turbulent year of shifting tariff policy.
Manufacturing employment has been declining over the last few years, highlighting the difficulty of using policy to instantaneously reverse longer-term trends.
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Manufacturing employment has been declining over the last few years, highlighting the difficulty of using policy to instantaneously reverse longer-term trends.
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Health care & social assistance added 38,500 jobs in December vs. 37,000 private jobs added, another month where health care contributed over 100% of private jobs added.
Over 2025, health care & social assistance added 712,600 jobs, accounting for a whopping 97% of all private job gains!
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Over 2025, health care & social assistance added 712,600 jobs, accounting for a whopping 97% of all private job gains!
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January 9, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Health care & social assistance added 38,500 jobs in December vs. 37,000 private jobs added, another month where health care contributed over 100% of private jobs added.
Over 2025, health care & social assistance added 712,600 jobs, accounting for a whopping 97% of all private job gains!
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Over 2025, health care & social assistance added 712,600 jobs, accounting for a whopping 97% of all private job gains!
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Across 2025, 584,000 jobs were added, the lowest pace since 2020.
Private payroll growth was 733,000 over 2025, the difference highlighting the largest single-year decline (-274,000) in federal employment since 1946 after WW2.
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Private payroll growth was 733,000 over 2025, the difference highlighting the largest single-year decline (-274,000) in federal employment since 1946 after WW2.
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January 9, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Across 2025, 584,000 jobs were added, the lowest pace since 2020.
Private payroll growth was 733,000 over 2025, the difference highlighting the largest single-year decline (-274,000) in federal employment since 1946 after WW2.
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Private payroll growth was 733,000 over 2025, the difference highlighting the largest single-year decline (-274,000) in federal employment since 1946 after WW2.
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Methodological note: Seasonal adjustment revisions to the household survey brought the unemployment rate in Nov down from 4.6% to 4.5%.
Dec drop in unemp to 4.4% also mitigates fears of surging unemp to end the year.
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Dec drop in unemp to 4.4% also mitigates fears of surging unemp to end the year.
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January 9, 2026 at 1:37 PM
Methodological note: Seasonal adjustment revisions to the household survey brought the unemployment rate in Nov down from 4.6% to 4.5%.
Dec drop in unemp to 4.4% also mitigates fears of surging unemp to end the year.
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Dec drop in unemp to 4.4% also mitigates fears of surging unemp to end the year.
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Employee sentiment ticked up in the Dec Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index: 46.5% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers, up from 44.8% in Nov.
After a turbulent year, sentiment has taken a round trip, down only slightly from 46.9% in Dec 2024.
After a turbulent year, sentiment has taken a round trip, down only slightly from 46.9% in Dec 2024.
January 8, 2026 at 1:49 PM
Employee sentiment ticked up in the Dec Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index: 46.5% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers, up from 44.8% in Nov.
After a turbulent year, sentiment has taken a round trip, down only slightly from 46.9% in Dec 2024.
After a turbulent year, sentiment has taken a round trip, down only slightly from 46.9% in Dec 2024.