Daniel Zhao
@danielzhao.bsky.social
Glassdoor Chief Economist
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
Initial UI claims up to 200,000 from 199,000 and continuing claims down to 1,849,000 from 1,875,000. Neither showing significant deterioration in the job market to start the year, consistent w/ what we've been seeing in claims for some time now.
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
January 22, 2026 at 1:41 PM
Initial UI claims up to 200,000 from 199,000 and continuing claims down to 1,849,000 from 1,875,000. Neither showing significant deterioration in the job market to start the year, consistent w/ what we've been seeing in claims for some time now.
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
(had to reset computer so no charts this wk)
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
US data center construction inched up to a new record high in data released today, exceeding a $42B annualized rate (and this only includes the data center facilities, not the expensive computers within)
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
January 21, 2026 at 5:07 PM
US data center construction inched up to a new record high in data released today, exceeding a $42B annualized rate (and this only includes the data center facilities, not the expensive computers within)
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
Growth has slowed down, but investment is still up 18.5% over the last year
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
January 20, 2026 at 8:13 PM
Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
The jig is up for prediction markets pretending they're not sports gambling sites.
Judge rules that Massachusetts can ban Kalshi (for now, it's a preliminary injunction)
sports.yahoo.com/articles/mas...
Judge rules that Massachusetts can ban Kalshi (for now, it's a preliminary injunction)
sports.yahoo.com/articles/mas...
Massachusetts Can Ban Kalshi Sports Markets for Now, Judge Rules
A judge granted a preliminary injunction that could force Kalshi to stop offering sports-related prediction markets in the state as soon as Friday.
sports.yahoo.com
January 20, 2026 at 7:17 PM
The jig is up for prediction markets pretending they're not sports gambling sites.
Judge rules that Massachusetts can ban Kalshi (for now, it's a preliminary injunction)
sports.yahoo.com/articles/mas...
Judge rules that Massachusetts can ban Kalshi (for now, it's a preliminary injunction)
sports.yahoo.com/articles/mas...
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell last week to 198,000 from 207,000. Continuing claims down to 1,884,000 from 1,903,000.
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
January 15, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell last week to 198,000 from 207,000. Continuing claims down to 1,884,000 from 1,903,000.
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
Both showing some modest trend improvement though still early in the year to draw conclusions about trends w/ recent holiday volatility
Interesting anecdote arguing AI is more likely to compete with offshore workers in the short-term given its current level of effectiveness.
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
January 14, 2026 at 8:04 PM
Interesting anecdote arguing AI is more likely to compete with offshore workers in the short-term given its current level of effectiveness.
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
Beige Book, Jan 2026, Philly Fed
In Dec 2025, new business applications fell 7% month-over-month, but they're still up 8% year-over-year.
Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
1/
Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
1/
January 14, 2026 at 3:15 PM
In Dec 2025, new business applications fell 7% month-over-month, but they're still up 8% year-over-year.
Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
1/
Notably, there's been something unusual going on with business applications spiking except for businesses with planned wages, which are down 23% YoY.
Source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur...
1/
Interesting! Looking forward to reading more
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
January 14, 2026 at 3:04 PM
Interesting! Looking forward to reading more
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Pirro did not discuss the Powell case with Trump or share any info with her bosses. Before the subpoenas landed, the Fed had received two emails from Carlton Davis, special counsel, on Dec 19 and Dec 29. Neither mentioned the threat of a criminal investigation nor a deadline for a response
NEW: The federal investigation into Fed chair Powell has sparked intense blowback, threatening to undermine Trump's effort to assert more dominance over the central bank
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/u... @nytimes.com
Blowback Builds Over Criminal Investigation of Powell
www.nytimes.com
January 13, 2026 at 9:01 PM
Pirro did not discuss the Powell case with Trump or share any info with her bosses. Before the subpoenas landed, the Fed had received two emails from Carlton Davis, special counsel, on Dec 19 and Dec 29. Neither mentioned the threat of a criminal investigation nor a deadline for a response
Ben should get some kind of "Friend of BLS" award for patiently explaining almost every month why we still trust the BLS
I get this question a lot (not always in such polite language), so worth addressing directly. (Short thread)
Sincere, non-rhetorical question: what agency is the source of these numbers? And how fully do you trust them?
January 13, 2026 at 7:15 PM
Ben should get some kind of "Friend of BLS" award for patiently explaining almost every month why we still trust the BLS
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
BREAKING: Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is stepping down after 19 seasons in Pittsburgh, per source.
He just notified the team in a meeting.
He just notified the team in a meeting.
January 13, 2026 at 7:07 PM
BREAKING: Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is stepping down after 19 seasons in Pittsburgh, per source.
He just notified the team in a meeting.
He just notified the team in a meeting.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Brookings and CBO agree US immigration slowed dramatically in 2025. Neither expects a significant rebound in 2026.
January 13, 2026 at 6:27 PM
Brookings and CBO agree US immigration slowed dramatically in 2025. Neither expects a significant rebound in 2026.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
January 13, 2026 at 5:41 PM
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
I have a new report out with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.
January 13, 2026 at 2:59 PM
I have a new report out with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...
www.employamerica.org
January 13, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
NY Fed Williams invokes "'rage-bait,' 'AI slop,' and, of course, '6-7'" at start of speech.
January 12, 2026 at 11:05 PM
NY Fed Williams invokes "'rage-bait,' 'AI slop,' and, of course, '6-7'" at start of speech.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:35 AM
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
A long-awaited update of federal employment data shows crippling staff reductions in some federal agencies and offices:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
220,000 Fewer Workers: How Trump’s Cuts Affected Every Federal Agency (Gift Article)
New data offers the first clear view of the impact of the buyouts and firings.
www.nytimes.com
January 9, 2026 at 9:33 PM
A long-awaited update of federal employment data shows crippling staff reductions in some federal agencies and offices:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
There are bigger breaches of norms, institutions, and laws recently, but this is illegal for a reason. The idea that talking to or following the President on media gets you market moving info ahead of time is wrong. Other administrations have gone to great lengths to avoid even a hint of impropriety
Holy cow: TRUMP LEAKED THIS MORNING'S PAYROLL NUMBERS.
At 8:20pm last night he posted a photo of a briefing he received from his CEA. It reveals market-moving numbers that were officially released at 8:30am this morning.
(Note: CEA receives the data—confidentially—on Thursday evening.)
At 8:20pm last night he posted a photo of a briefing he received from his CEA. It reveals market-moving numbers that were officially released at 8:30am this morning.
(Note: CEA receives the data—confidentially—on Thursday evening.)
January 9, 2026 at 9:42 PM
There are bigger breaches of norms, institutions, and laws recently, but this is illegal for a reason. The idea that talking to or following the President on media gets you market moving info ahead of time is wrong. Other administrations have gone to great lengths to avoid even a hint of impropriety
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
First found by @bharatkumarmd.bsky.social on the extremely bad site: yesterday at 8:20 pm, Trump tweeted out jobs numbers that included data that weren’t released until 8:30 am today. It was a copy of a presentation with CEA letterhead.
January 9, 2026 at 3:20 PM
First found by @bharatkumarmd.bsky.social on the extremely bad site: yesterday at 8:20 pm, Trump tweeted out jobs numbers that included data that weren’t released until 8:30 am today. It was a copy of a presentation with CEA letterhead.
Weak Dec #jobsreport caps a turbulent 2025:
-Payrolls grew 50k in Dec, slightly below expectations
-Nov revised down from +64k to +56k; Oct from -105k to -173k
-Payrolls grew 584k in sum in 2025, slowest pace since 2020
-Unemp down to 4.4% in Dec. Nov revised down to 4.5%
#NumbersDay 1/
-Payrolls grew 50k in Dec, slightly below expectations
-Nov revised down from +64k to +56k; Oct from -105k to -173k
-Payrolls grew 584k in sum in 2025, slowest pace since 2020
-Unemp down to 4.4% in Dec. Nov revised down to 4.5%
#NumbersDay 1/
January 9, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Weak Dec #jobsreport caps a turbulent 2025:
-Payrolls grew 50k in Dec, slightly below expectations
-Nov revised down from +64k to +56k; Oct from -105k to -173k
-Payrolls grew 584k in sum in 2025, slowest pace since 2020
-Unemp down to 4.4% in Dec. Nov revised down to 4.5%
#NumbersDay 1/
-Payrolls grew 50k in Dec, slightly below expectations
-Nov revised down from +64k to +56k; Oct from -105k to -173k
-Payrolls grew 584k in sum in 2025, slowest pace since 2020
-Unemp down to 4.4% in Dec. Nov revised down to 4.5%
#NumbersDay 1/
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
US AI boom is smaller than previous investment booms
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
January 9, 2026 at 11:01 AM
US AI boom is smaller than previous investment booms
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Another month of US transit data is in, & DC's WMATA remains the fastest-growing major US transit agency, with ridership up 9.2% compared to last year!
King County Metro (Seattle, +6.5%) & SEPTA (Philly, +4.7%) have performed well, while LA Metro & NJTransit have lost riders🧵
King County Metro (Seattle, +6.5%) & SEPTA (Philly, +4.7%) have performed well, while LA Metro & NJTransit have lost riders🧵
January 8, 2026 at 11:49 PM
Another month of US transit data is in, & DC's WMATA remains the fastest-growing major US transit agency, with ridership up 9.2% compared to last year!
King County Metro (Seattle, +6.5%) & SEPTA (Philly, +4.7%) have performed well, while LA Metro & NJTransit have lost riders🧵
King County Metro (Seattle, +6.5%) & SEPTA (Philly, +4.7%) have performed well, while LA Metro & NJTransit have lost riders🧵
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
January 7, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Breaking News: Gov. Kathy Hochul, partnering with Mayor Zohran Mamdani, will unveil a plan to expand free or affordable child care for New Yorkers across the state.
Hochul and Mamdani to Announce Road Map to Expand Child Care
Governor Kathy Hochul will appear with Mayor Zohran Mamdani to lay out a plan to expand free and subsidized child care in New York, which had been a central focus of his campaign.
nyti.ms
January 8, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Breaking News: Gov. Kathy Hochul, partnering with Mayor Zohran Mamdani, will unveil a plan to expand free or affordable child care for New Yorkers across the state.