Eric Finnigan
@ericfinnigan.jbrec.com
Charts & data on US demographics, housing, real estate, migration, immigration, econ/finance.
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
We (JBREC) have survey evidence showing there is in fact impact on occupancy and leasing. Different impacts by region, but it's definitely showing up.
Although Zelman said there is only anecdotal evidence of immigration policy negatively impacting rents and vacancy rates, an apartment owner in Atlanta said he has seen a significant impact! I think immigration is a key issue ...
NMHC on Apartments: "Lower rent growth and higher vacancies" in Q4
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nmhc-on-ap...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nmhc-on-ap...
January 22, 2026 at 8:47 PM
We (JBREC) have survey evidence showing there is in fact impact on occupancy and leasing. Different impacts by region, but it's definitely showing up.
Pretty good news, huh:
Millennial parents spend more time with kids previous generations.
Especially moms, but dads too.
...AND the average family has fewer kids.
So that means the average kid is getting more mom-and-dad-time than ever before.
Millennial parents spend more time with kids previous generations.
Especially moms, but dads too.
...AND the average family has fewer kids.
So that means the average kid is getting more mom-and-dad-time than ever before.
Older generations spent a lot less time parenting. Millennial dads spend nearly as much time parenting as Boomer moms did. Millennial and Gen X moms way more.
via The Economist
via The Economist
January 16, 2026 at 8:55 PM
Pretty good news, huh:
Millennial parents spend more time with kids previous generations.
Especially moms, but dads too.
...AND the average family has fewer kids.
So that means the average kid is getting more mom-and-dad-time than ever before.
Millennial parents spend more time with kids previous generations.
Especially moms, but dads too.
...AND the average family has fewer kids.
So that means the average kid is getting more mom-and-dad-time than ever before.
Ah, turns out AP is reporting the ban does not apply to non-immigrant (e.g., tourism) visas. Bloomberg's article didn't distinguish.
January 14, 2026 at 6:25 PM
Ah, turns out AP is reporting the ban does not apply to non-immigrant (e.g., tourism) visas. Bloomberg's article didn't distinguish.
Brookings and CBO agree US immigration slowed dramatically in 2025. Neither expects a significant rebound in 2026.
January 13, 2026 at 6:27 PM
Brookings and CBO agree US immigration slowed dramatically in 2025. Neither expects a significant rebound in 2026.
Pulse check on immigration enforcement.
Source: YouGov Survey, ICE Policies and Practices
January 9 - 11, 2026 - 1,129 U.S. adult citizens
Source: YouGov Survey, ICE Policies and Practices
January 9 - 11, 2026 - 1,129 U.S. adult citizens
January 13, 2026 at 6:25 PM
Pulse check on immigration enforcement.
Source: YouGov Survey, ICE Policies and Practices
January 9 - 11, 2026 - 1,129 U.S. adult citizens
Source: YouGov Survey, ICE Policies and Practices
January 9 - 11, 2026 - 1,129 U.S. adult citizens
I think this is important.
Success anchoring to increasingly fat tailed distributions. Reaching top 1% income is higher climb than ever.
At the same time, the world is flatter than ever (the poorest 1% can follow the ramblings of the world's richest 24/7, and vice versa).
Success anchoring to increasingly fat tailed distributions. Reaching top 1% income is higher climb than ever.
At the same time, the world is flatter than ever (the poorest 1% can follow the ramblings of the world's richest 24/7, and vice versa).
If we do this, here's what we find:
In 1976, $99,900 was at the 99.9th percentile of income
In 1993, $212,300 was at the 99.8th percentile of income
In 2009, $180,900 was at the 95.1th percentile of income
And in 2025, $578,800 was at the 98.7th percentile of income
In 1976, $99,900 was at the 99.9th percentile of income
In 1993, $212,300 was at the 99.8th percentile of income
In 2009, $180,900 was at the 95.1th percentile of income
And in 2025, $578,800 was at the 98.7th percentile of income
January 11, 2026 at 4:21 PM
I think this is important.
Success anchoring to increasingly fat tailed distributions. Reaching top 1% income is higher climb than ever.
At the same time, the world is flatter than ever (the poorest 1% can follow the ramblings of the world's richest 24/7, and vice versa).
Success anchoring to increasingly fat tailed distributions. Reaching top 1% income is higher climb than ever.
At the same time, the world is flatter than ever (the poorest 1% can follow the ramblings of the world's richest 24/7, and vice versa).
An under-appreciated "demographic cliff" of the next 20 years:
Social Security Administration is extremely optimistic on both net immigration and birth rates, leading to unrealistic population assumptions.
When (or if) they right-size their views, future social security benefits could be at risk.
Social Security Administration is extremely optimistic on both net immigration and birth rates, leading to unrealistic population assumptions.
When (or if) they right-size their views, future social security benefits could be at risk.
January 10, 2026 at 6:06 PM
An under-appreciated "demographic cliff" of the next 20 years:
Social Security Administration is extremely optimistic on both net immigration and birth rates, leading to unrealistic population assumptions.
When (or if) they right-size their views, future social security benefits could be at risk.
Social Security Administration is extremely optimistic on both net immigration and birth rates, leading to unrealistic population assumptions.
When (or if) they right-size their views, future social security benefits could be at risk.
Not a lot of labor switching between resi and data center construction.
*SOME ORACLE DATA CENTERS FOR OPENAI DELAYED TO 2028 FROM 2027
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
December 12, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Not a lot of labor switching between resi and data center construction.
Fascinating to see seasonality and multi-year cycles in the share of monthly births to first-time moms.
Seasonality: typically peaks in Nov-Jan, bottoms in Jun
Multi-year trends: rose through 2009, fell 2010-2019, rising again 2020-2025
Seasonality: typically peaks in Nov-Jan, bottoms in Jun
Multi-year trends: rose through 2009, fell 2010-2019, rising again 2020-2025
December 10, 2025 at 2:23 AM
Fascinating to see seasonality and multi-year cycles in the share of monthly births to first-time moms.
Seasonality: typically peaks in Nov-Jan, bottoms in Jun
Multi-year trends: rose through 2009, fell 2010-2019, rising again 2020-2025
Seasonality: typically peaks in Nov-Jan, bottoms in Jun
Multi-year trends: rose through 2009, fell 2010-2019, rising again 2020-2025
Headline on our Pro Remodeling survey last month was "Pro remodeling hits new cycle low"
November 18, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Headline on our Pro Remodeling survey last month was "Pro remodeling hits new cycle low"
2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
October 27, 2025 at 7:31 PM
2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true.
Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.
Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.
October 21, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.
2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing:
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
October 14, 2025 at 4:22 PM
2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing:
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency.
2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US.
Vastly different impacts market by market…
jbrec.com/insights/imm...
Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July
August 28, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July
Waller: Payroll jobs likely declined May-July
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
Economic Club of Miami hosts Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller
YouTube video by The Economic Club of Miami
www.youtube.com
August 28, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Waller: Payroll jobs likely declined May-July
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
"After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]."
www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...
Worth watching:
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
August 26, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Worth watching:
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels.
Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.
Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
August 15, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.
Reposted by Eric Finnigan
To add to this: The foreign-born sample in CPS is -12% since last August. Nativity is not part of population controls, so assuming the foreign-born population didn't drop 12%, weighted results will show declining numbers of immigrants. So looks like fewer immigrant workers. Don't use CPS for this.
August 13, 2025 at 6:38 PM
To add to this: The foreign-born sample in CPS is -12% since last August. Nativity is not part of population controls, so assuming the foreign-born population didn't drop 12%, weighted results will show declining numbers of immigrants. So looks like fewer immigrant workers. Don't use CPS for this.
Two charts on shifting housing demand:
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
August 11, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Two charts on shifting housing demand:
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
1) Homeowners declining in 2Q, first in 9 years
2) Renters continue surging, up +1.6M since 2023
What happens next depends on homebuilder margins, SFR buyers, land sellers, ICE staffing/deportations, job growth, life expectancy, & rates, to name a few.
Opening move to a citizenship question in the 2030 Census?
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
August 7, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Opening move to a citizenship question in the 2030 Census?
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
One study shows that asking about citizenship would have caused 4.2 million Hispanics to be "missed" in the 2010 count.
(That'd be almost 6 million with today's larger Hispanic population.)
Reposted by Eric Finnigan
Native born employment and population may appear higher because… people are now self reporting that they were born in the US rather than abroad.
August 7, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Native born employment and population may appear higher because… people are now self reporting that they were born in the US rather than abroad.
Immigrants are leaving the US workforce in very large numbers.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
August 3, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Immigrants are leaving the US workforce in very large numbers.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down 2+ million from a year ago.
Biggest decline in >30 years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis.
Reposted by Eric Finnigan
Affordability is rerouting housing growth. @conorsen.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com cites research from @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com and Chris Porter of @jbrec.com on migration shifts from Austin to San Antonio and beyond.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Hello Spartanburg! The Affordability Migration Finds New Homes
A challenging housing market is drawing builders to cities where they can build homes at the right price point.
www.bloomberg.com
July 29, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Affordability is rerouting housing growth. @conorsen.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com cites research from @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com and Chris Porter of @jbrec.com on migration shifts from Austin to San Antonio and beyond.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Labor costs aren't currently going up for homebuilders because we're in a homebuilding recession.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
July 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Labor costs aren't currently going up for homebuilders because we're in a homebuilding recession.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
I'm thinking about the next cycle, and the 1.4M new homes needed every year to keep up with household growth.
Watch out for "hockey stick"-shaped labor cost inflation in the next cycle.
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
July 29, 2025 at 5:36 PM
ICE raids are hitting Western Union's US→Mexico money-sending business.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.
More evidence that immigration enforcement is disrupting the construction industry (and others).
US→Mexico is the largest remittance channel globally ($60B+ annually). Western Union leads in transaction volume.