Mr. Wilson and I hit the Wild Azalea Trail today. Perfect weather. Still amazed I found a place in LA with hardwood forests (beech trees, hollies, oak and hickory). Felt like I was home. We also came across an unfortunate snake who appears to have met his end under a car tire.

So here's the thing--I don't know how the GOP moves forward without Trump. This topic deserves a dissertation, but take it from somebody who's studied a lot of populist demagoguery in the South: Once the demagogue departs, voters struggle to coordinate on new candidates.

I'd previously posted my ideological estimates for the Alabama House, which I produce as an image in 1D and interactive map here: david-hughes-phd.github.io/AL-House-Ide.... #alpolitics

Finally got around to finishing estimating the Alabama Senate members' ideological estimates from the 2025 regular session. (One of these members is not like the others.) You can also find an interactive, two-dimensional version here: david-hughes-phd.github.io/AL-Senate-Id.... #alpolitics

I also have seat ratings I need to post at some point. Right now I have Ensler's seat listed as "likely democrat," but even with his departure, Democrats should keep the seat. That district only voted Trump in '24 at 34.6%.

It's rotten luck for Alabama Democrats that Ensler isn't running for reelection. According to my WAR estimates (akin to what Split-Ticket does), he's the 2nd highest over-performer amongst all Democrats in the legislature. #alpolitics

Here's a plot of the AL-House districts by member ideology using 2025 roll-calls. david-hughes-phd.github.io/AL-House-Ide.... Static map attached.