David A. Hughes, Ph.D.
@davidhughesphd.bsky.social
Political scientist studying American law and courts, state politics, and southern politics | Coonhound dad | Southern highlander | https://davidhughesphd.com/
Apropos of nothing, I am this morning reminded of the Eddie Izzard bit about the wisdom of invading Russia. youtu.be/Pmf8byuHJWw?...
Eddie Izzard "Russians" Sketch From Dress to Kill
YouTube video by Eddie Izzard
youtu.be
November 10, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Apropos of nothing, I am this morning reminded of the Eddie Izzard bit about the wisdom of invading Russia. youtu.be/Pmf8byuHJWw?...
This might be one area where the majority is strategically ducking. They know that, eventually, Dems will win the WH, House, and Senate, and judicial reform will be on the agenda. Unlike Roe, this hasn't become some half-century cause defining conservative jurisprudence. www.wsfa.com/2025/11/10/s...
Supreme Court rejects call to overturn its decision legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide
The Supreme Court has rejected a call to overturn its landmark decision that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide.
www.wsfa.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:14 PM
This might be one area where the majority is strategically ducking. They know that, eventually, Dems will win the WH, House, and Senate, and judicial reform will be on the agenda. Unlike Roe, this hasn't become some half-century cause defining conservative jurisprudence. www.wsfa.com/2025/11/10/s...
One hopes--or another centrist. I'm not sure if Buttigieg will ever be able to get the stink of the Biden admin off him to win the nod (though he had some strong headwinds against him that will perhaps always keep us from having nice things). www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/o...
Opinion | Mamdani Isn’t the Future of the Democrats. This Guy Is.
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:36 AM
One hopes--or another centrist. I'm not sure if Buttigieg will ever be able to get the stink of the Biden admin off him to win the nod (though he had some strong headwinds against him that will perhaps always keep us from having nice things). www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/o...
Yeah, I think this is where I am. Federal employees and SNAP beneficiaries badly need relief. As the holidays approach, it's time to let the hostages go. Congress can resume their fight in January when the CR expires yet again.
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
November 10, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Yeah, I think this is where I am. Federal employees and SNAP beneficiaries badly need relief. As the holidays approach, it's time to let the hostages go. Congress can resume their fight in January when the CR expires yet again.
I'm hearing mostly teeth-gnashing amongst Dems about this, but there are some upsides. The RIFs reversals and backpay are something. The ACA vote will fail. Mostly, MCs don't want this to continue into the holidays, and the pain amongst constituents is real. This was always the most likely off-ramp.
Tentative Senate deal to end shutdown, multiple sources tell me & @frankthorp.bsky.social:
—CR through Jan 30
—Approps minibus
—Fully funds SNAP
—Reverses Trump’s shutdown RIFs
—Promise of Senate vote on ACA subsidies by Dec second week (details/outcome uncertain)
—Led by King/Shaheen/Hassan
—CR through Jan 30
—Approps minibus
—Fully funds SNAP
—Reverses Trump’s shutdown RIFs
—Promise of Senate vote on ACA subsidies by Dec second week (details/outcome uncertain)
—Led by King/Shaheen/Hassan
November 10, 2025 at 12:51 AM
I'm hearing mostly teeth-gnashing amongst Dems about this, but there are some upsides. The RIFs reversals and backpay are something. The ACA vote will fail. Mostly, MCs don't want this to continue into the holidays, and the pain amongst constituents is real. This was always the most likely off-ramp.
Mr. Wilson and I hit the Wild Azalea Trail today. Perfect weather. Still amazed I found a place in LA with hardwood forests (beech trees, hollies, oak and hickory). Felt like I was home. We also came across an unfortunate snake who appears to have met his end under a car tire.
November 9, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Mr. Wilson and I hit the Wild Azalea Trail today. Perfect weather. Still amazed I found a place in LA with hardwood forests (beech trees, hollies, oak and hickory). Felt like I was home. We also came across an unfortunate snake who appears to have met his end under a car tire.
I know virtually nothing about California politics, so I'm genuinely asking, why are Democrats only talking about flipping 5 Republican US House seats during redistricting--is it simply impossible to get more?
November 9, 2025 at 4:16 PM
I know virtually nothing about California politics, so I'm genuinely asking, why are Democrats only talking about flipping 5 Republican US House seats during redistricting--is it simply impossible to get more?
Even cracking the 40% threshold would be a win of sorts. Could flip some legislative seats, especially around Huntsville. The party needs him, but they certainly don't deserve him. And he'll have to fight Reed and Kelley tooth and nail. Could also be important given redistricting is probably coming.
Probably the best hope for Alabama Dems in 2026. Even if he can’t win — and that would be tough with straight ticket voting — he can get voters out for downballot and legislative races.
Former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones appears to be headed for another political showdown against current Sen. Tommy Tuberville, this time for the governor’s office.
🔗: https://www.al.com/politics/2025/11/alabama-democrat-hints-at-2026-rematch-with-tommy-tuberville-stay-tuned.html
🔗: https://www.al.com/politics/2025/11/alabama-democrat-hints-at-2026-rematch-with-tommy-tuberville-stay-tuned.html
November 9, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Even cracking the 40% threshold would be a win of sorts. Could flip some legislative seats, especially around Huntsville. The party needs him, but they certainly don't deserve him. And he'll have to fight Reed and Kelley tooth and nail. Could also be important given redistricting is probably coming.
So here's the thing--I don't know how the GOP moves forward without Trump. This topic deserves a dissertation, but take it from somebody who's studied a lot of populist demagoguery in the South: Once the demagogue departs, voters struggle to coordinate on new candidates.
November 8, 2025 at 8:28 PM
So here's the thing--I don't know how the GOP moves forward without Trump. This topic deserves a dissertation, but take it from somebody who's studied a lot of populist demagoguery in the South: Once the demagogue departs, voters struggle to coordinate on new candidates.
A very sober analysis by journalists @lsu.bsky.social about the selection process for the next leaders at the state's flagship. For context, UL-Lafayette is also searching for its next president as it attempts to dig itself out of the hole its previous leaders dug. lsureveille.com/268736/opini...
The Reveille looks forward to new LSU president, but questions the process - Reveille
The Reveille Editorial Board weighs in on the leadership changes at LSU and questions the search process for its new president.
lsureveille.com
November 8, 2025 at 7:47 PM
A very sober analysis by journalists @lsu.bsky.social about the selection process for the next leaders at the state's flagship. For context, UL-Lafayette is also searching for its next president as it attempts to dig itself out of the hole its previous leaders dug. lsureveille.com/268736/opini...
It's 82 degrees in Lafayette today--I'm currently running my AC. On Monday we're looking at a low of 32! I'm enjoying my yard-work this weekend while the pretty weather lasts.
November 8, 2025 at 5:25 PM
It's 82 degrees in Lafayette today--I'm currently running my AC. On Monday we're looking at a low of 32! I'm enjoying my yard-work this weekend while the pretty weather lasts.
Expected a thermostatic effect, but nothing this big. One of the more important facets of this election, imo.
latino voters swinging 60 points against trump is really something
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
November 8, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Expected a thermostatic effect, but nothing this big. One of the more important facets of this election, imo.
According to the folks at The Downballot, the average margin swing between 2024 and 2025 for all the races held last week was a 12.8 percentage point swing toward Democrats. Pretty big! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle
docs.google.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:03 PM
According to the folks at The Downballot, the average margin swing between 2024 and 2025 for all the races held last week was a 12.8 percentage point swing toward Democrats. Pretty big! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Anybody hear anything about what's up with US Census Quick Facts (census.gov/quickfacts/)? I regularly point students to it to grab demographic data, but it's been down for weeks, and I don't see a public statement from the Census. This problem predates the shutdown.
U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts
census.gov
November 7, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Anybody hear anything about what's up with US Census Quick Facts (census.gov/quickfacts/)? I regularly point students to it to grab demographic data, but it's been down for weeks, and I don't see a public statement from the Census. This problem predates the shutdown.
How is it that multiple news networks have pollster/data guru cult followings? One built his celebrity on khakis--the other yells, apparently.
November 6, 2025 at 5:45 PM
How is it that multiple news networks have pollster/data guru cult followings? One built his celebrity on khakis--the other yells, apparently.
I was primarily interested in whether Mamdani would break the 50% threshold. So far, he has--barely. But that's a poor showing for the Democratic nominee in NYC, who typically wins closer to two-thirds of the vote. Dang-near half the city voted against Mamdani, which I'm gonna say is pretty bad.
November 5, 2025 at 2:55 PM
I was primarily interested in whether Mamdani would break the 50% threshold. So far, he has--barely. But that's a poor showing for the Democratic nominee in NYC, who typically wins closer to two-thirds of the vote. Dang-near half the city voted against Mamdani, which I'm gonna say is pretty bad.
I've added "Alabama Politics by the Numbers" to my webpage. It includes data on Alabama legislative ideology, seat ratings, WAR ratings, and a blog for other data I plan to add on a running basis. The data and analyses are free for academics, journalists, and others. #alpolitics
September 1, 2025 at 5:40 PM
I've added "Alabama Politics by the Numbers" to my webpage. It includes data on Alabama legislative ideology, seat ratings, WAR ratings, and a blog for other data I plan to add on a running basis. The data and analyses are free for academics, journalists, and others. #alpolitics
I've updated my webpage with recent course syllabi, slides, and assignments. Feel free to reach out if you're interested in getting the LaTex code for any of these items. davidhughesphd.com/courses/
Courses
Undergraduate Courses Constitutional Law: Civil Rights and Liberties (Fall 2019) Constitutional Law: Institutional Powers (Spring 2020) Introduction to American Politics (Fall 2025) Introduction to…
davidhughesphd.com
August 31, 2025 at 5:59 PM
I've updated my webpage with recent course syllabi, slides, and assignments. Feel free to reach out if you're interested in getting the LaTex code for any of these items. davidhughesphd.com/courses/
I've updated my webpage to reflect current publications (davidhughesphd.com/publications/) and research in progress (davidhughesphd.com/working-pape...).
Published Works
Peer-Reviewed Articles Hood, M. V. III, David A. Hughes, and Seth McKee. 2025. “MAGA Trumps the Incumbency Advantage in a Dueling Incumbent Primary.” American Politics Research, 53(2): …
davidhughesphd.com
August 29, 2025 at 4:52 PM
I've updated my webpage to reflect current publications (davidhughesphd.com/publications/) and research in progress (davidhughesphd.com/working-pape...).
I am getting so many student questions in class this semester. It's awesome. I haven't had this level of engagement since the before-times pre-COVID. I think, after some really tough years where getting student participation required an act of Congress, nature is finally healing.
August 28, 2025 at 9:17 PM
I am getting so many student questions in class this semester. It's awesome. I haven't had this level of engagement since the before-times pre-COVID. I think, after some really tough years where getting student participation required an act of Congress, nature is finally healing.
Finally got around to finishing estimating the Alabama Senate members' ideological estimates from the 2025 regular session. (One of these members is not like the others.) You can also find an interactive, two-dimensional version here: david-hughes-phd.github.io/AL-Senate-Id.... #alpolitics
July 24, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Finally got around to finishing estimating the Alabama Senate members' ideological estimates from the 2025 regular session. (One of these members is not like the others.) You can also find an interactive, two-dimensional version here: david-hughes-phd.github.io/AL-Senate-Id.... #alpolitics
I missed it yesterday, but that date marked my first full year living in Louisiana. It's been an interesting time!
July 22, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I missed it yesterday, but that date marked my first full year living in Louisiana. It's been an interesting time!
Reposted by David A. Hughes, Ph.D.
My colleague @dennispillion.bsky.social and I were the first reporters to sit down at length with Cynthia Almond, the new president of the Public Service Commission. The image she projects is much different than that of her predecessor, Twinkle Cavanaugh: insideclimatenews.org/news/2107202...
July 21, 2025 at 9:49 PM
My colleague @dennispillion.bsky.social and I were the first reporters to sit down at length with Cynthia Almond, the new president of the Public Service Commission. The image she projects is much different than that of her predecessor, Twinkle Cavanaugh: insideclimatenews.org/news/2107202...
I'd be curious to see something that disaggregates PBS and NPR. A lot of folks' kids watch PBS, so it serves a purpose in their lives. Way fewer tune in to NPR, I'm guessing. And I'll bet they identify a political angle with it that isn't present with PBS.
people like big bird, actually
We ran this poll over the weekend and found similar -- only 21% support cuts to PBS/NPR and only 35% of Republicans!
July 17, 2025 at 9:04 PM
I'd be curious to see something that disaggregates PBS and NPR. A lot of folks' kids watch PBS, so it serves a purpose in their lives. Way fewer tune in to NPR, I'm guessing. And I'll bet they identify a political angle with it that isn't present with PBS.
I also have seat ratings I need to post at some point. Right now I have Ensler's seat listed as "likely democrat," but even with his departure, Democrats should keep the seat. That district only voted Trump in '24 at 34.6%.
July 17, 2025 at 4:36 PM
I also have seat ratings I need to post at some point. Right now I have Ensler's seat listed as "likely democrat," but even with his departure, Democrats should keep the seat. That district only voted Trump in '24 at 34.6%.