Age <30 (27% approve)
Hispanic (31%)
'24 non-voter (32%)
Non-college (42%)
+Men, White people, White non-college
Independents at low of 28%, with *strong* disapproval high of 56%
And Trump '24 voters down to 84% approval, due to independent drop
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40% approve of his overall job handling
36% approve of handling of economy
32% say national economy is good
On overall job rating, strong disapproval is 2x strong approval
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
Age <30 (27% approve)
Hispanic (31%)
'24 non-voter (32%)
Non-college (42%)
+Men, White people, White non-college
Independents at low of 28%, with *strong* disapproval high of 56%
And Trump '24 voters down to 84% approval, due to independent drop
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40% approve of his overall job handling
36% approve of handling of economy
32% say national economy is good
On overall job rating, strong disapproval is 2x strong approval
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
40% approve of his overall job handling
36% approve of handling of economy
32% say national economy is good
On overall job rating, strong disapproval is 2x strong approval
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
This summer, nine in ten Americans said DOJ should release everything it has regarding case
Similar number said files probably include damaging info on powerful/wealthy people
More from July poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
This summer, nine in ten Americans said DOJ should release everything it has regarding case
Similar number said files probably include damaging info on powerful/wealthy people
More from July poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Among Trump voters, people of color and younger voters were likeliest to vote YES on Prop 50
% of Trump voters backing Prop 50:
24% Latino (women > men)
23% Asian
6% White
21% <45
9% 45+
33% POC <45
15% POC 45+
6% White <45
6% White 45+
Among Trump voters, people of color and younger voters were likeliest to vote YES on Prop 50
% of Trump voters backing Prop 50:
24% Latino (women > men)
23% Asian
6% White
21% <45
9% 45+
33% POC <45
15% POC 45+
6% White <45
6% White 45+
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
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But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
1/2
Deep dive on voters Mamdani added to Democratic coalition — specifically those who didn't vote for Kamala Harris in '24
They are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent than consistent voters, and they voted for somewhat distinct reasons
Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
1/
Deep dive on voters Mamdani added to Democratic coalition — specifically those who didn't vote for Kamala Harris in '24
They are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent than consistent voters, and they voted for somewhat distinct reasons
Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
1/
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
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Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)
Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)
ropercenter.cornell....
ropercenter.cornell....
Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
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Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
How did he do it?
Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social
How did he do it?
Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize
Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/
H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social
We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize
Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/
H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993
#CBSDataDesk🍎
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:
Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
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74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2