Kabir K.
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kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Kabir K.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Elections and Data Analytics at CBS News | Princeton political science PhD
Trump rating at low point with many groups...

Age <30 (27% approve)
Hispanic (31%)
'24 non-voter (32%)
Non-college (42%)

+Men, White people, White non-college

Independents at low of 28%, with *strong* disapproval high of 56%

And Trump '24 voters down to 84% approval, due to independent drop

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Our latest polling sees Trump's approval and economic ratings dip to new lows this term

40% approve of his overall job handling
36% approve of handling of economy
32% say national economy is good

On overall job rating, strong disapproval is 2x strong approval

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
November 23, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Our latest polling sees Trump's approval and economic ratings dip to new lows this term

40% approve of his overall job handling
36% approve of handling of economy
32% say national economy is good

On overall job rating, strong disapproval is 2x strong approval

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...
November 23, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Public opinion on Epstein files has been unambiguous for a while now

This summer, nine in ten Americans said DOJ should release everything it has regarding case

Similar number said files probably include damaging info on powerful/wealthy people

More from July poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
November 18, 2025 at 10:46 PM
California shows similar patterns to what we saw in NJ & VA

Among Trump voters, people of color and younger voters were likeliest to vote YES on Prop 50

% of Trump voters backing Prop 50:
24% Latino (women > men)
23% Asian
6% White

21% <45
9% 45+

33% POC <45
15% POC 45+
6% White <45
6% White 45+
Would be super interesting to see this analysis applied to California for Prop 50. While not a direct political race between R's and D's, it basically is given what the prop does. Looking at the precinct results, Asian, Black, and Latino voters swung consistently about 20-40 points left.
November 12, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor

While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters

And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)

1/2
NYC isn't the country...

But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump

Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged

More below

6/6
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:28 PM
🧵

Deep dive on voters Mamdani added to Democratic coalition — specifically those who didn't vote for Kamala Harris in '24

They are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent than consistent voters, and they voted for somewhat distinct reasons

Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

1/
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24

Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back

Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20

1/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Reposted by Kabir K.
It's time for Fun Poll Friday! Actually, maybe Foreign Poll Friday - these polls cover pretty heavy issues, particularly focusing on international relations. But they're interesting, and that's close to fun!

Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)
November 7, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Reposted by Kabir K.
NYC 2025 Mayoral results as a dot density plot using the `dots` #rstats package (cran.r-project.org/web/packages...)
November 7, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Reposted by Kabir K.
Flashback Friday: Exit polls have evolved dramatically since the first national exit poll in the US was conducted in 1972 by Warren Mitofsky for CBS News. Dive into the archives to see our earliest data. What was the public saying then?

ropercenter.cornell....
November 7, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Reposted by Kabir K.
Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins.

Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide

Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin

High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov

1/2
November 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate

Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44

Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals

So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
A year ago Zohran Mamdani was a little known assemblyman polling at under 1%, but on Tuesday, the 34-year-old democratic socialist won over 50% in the highest-turnout race for mayor in decades

How did he do it?

Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social
Zohran Mamdani won by shaking up NYC politics
Entering the mayoral race with under 1% support, Zohran Mamdani's prospects of winning initially seemed unlikely. Here are some of the ways he turned the race around.
www.cbsnews.com
November 6, 2025 at 1:09 PM
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide

Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin

High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov

1/2
November 6, 2025 at 1:06 AM
NYC map shaded by vote margin!

We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize

Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.

datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/

H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social
2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood
CBS News estimates of how different parts of the city voted
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
November 5, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Reposted by Kabir K.
Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%
November 5, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Just projected Prop 50 passing in California...

So here's the state's new congressional map

More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
November 5, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/

Hover over map to see our estimates...

#CBSDataDesk🍎
2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
November 5, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Impressive turnout across New York City today, continuing the heavy volume we tracked during the early voting period

We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993

#CBSDataDesk🍎
At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years

It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher

1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
November 4, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Reposted by Kabir K.
Finishing up prep for election night at CBS News' Data Desk!

Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:
November 4, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Reposted by Kabir K.
What we know about NYC voters checking in early...

74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago

Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+

Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)

So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting

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November 3, 2025 at 12:24 AM
What we know about NYC voters checking in early...

74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago

Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+

Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)

So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting

1/2
November 3, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)

So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting

1/2
November 2, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen

Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)

And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
November 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM
NEW

Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)

Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration

More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July

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November 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM