Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 1d

Reasonable people can absolutely update their views about causal questions based on evidence which does not involve obviously as good as random assignment of treatment! Famous examples: effect of smoking on lung cancer, effect of CO2 on global temperature.

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 1d

This is a factual question and the answer is that there exist sets of assumptions which do not include exogeneity but which identify causal parameters.

1 2

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 3d

But also, if we average across many research questions, some methods will usually perform better than others. This is how I usually interpret the idea of the hierarchy of evidence. This doesn't mean that, say, RCT is universally better than DiD regardless of sample size, context, etc.

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 3d

Sure, not a strict hierarchy. But the typical distance between the parameter you want and the estimate you get is not the same for all methods.

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 6d

(2) If so, is the ratio of long-run to test score effects for these policies similar to the implied ratio e.g. in that JPAM paper, in which variation is not necessarily even coming from any state-level policy, let alone the same one? (3) Would the same thing happen if other states tried to copy?

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 6d

Absolutely, things which increase test scores usually help long-run outcomes. My main uncertainties: (1) Were these trends actually caused by the state ed policies people have in mind?

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 7d

This is a nice article and the story makes sense. But worth remembering that the logical step "this place is doing well in standardized testing, therefore everyone should copy what their school system is doing" involves assumptions which don't always hold:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Test scores, schools, and the geography of economic opportunity

Do standardized test scores in a community indicate whether schools there are effective at producing human capital? Counties with high average test sc…

www.sciencedirect.com

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 24d

AnotherSpaceSavingTipIsThatIfYouCapitalizeTheFirstLetterOfEveryWordYouDon'tNeedSpaces

Reposted by David Slichter

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 28d

Darkly funny how a strong emphasis on unbiasedness via the credibility revolution plausibly ended up making the published literature more biased.

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 28d

Wild how economists and political scientists worry so much about unbiased tests **in their papers** and yet basically ignore how their journals filter on significance. Given our noisy tests, the latter creates huge bias away from zero.

1 1 11

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 29d

Both policies produce winners and losers, so I wouldn't call either one costless. If you mean housing reforms increase the size of the pie, well, cutting taxes reduces DWL. But utility gains from housing reforms are more widely shared across income brackets, because indirect effects are stronger.

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 29d

I'd define trickle-down as directly helping rich people with the expectation/excuse that this will indirectly help poor people. Helping the poor via vacancy chains is exactly that! But in housing, unlike taxes, the indirect effects are actually large enough for the argument to make sense.

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Sep 8

(Though I can't vouch for the accuracy of claims about the psychology literature contained within...)

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Sep 8

I always really liked this piece:
www.alfiekohn.org/article/five...

Five Reasons to Stop Saying “Good Job!” (**)

YOUNG CHILDREN September 2001 Five Reasons to Stop Saying “Good Job!” By Alfie Kohn NOTE: An abridged version of this article was published in Parents magazine in May 2000 with the title “Hooked on Pr...

www.alfiekohn.org

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Sep 3

For OLS, this is simpler than Aronow and Samii (2016 AJPS) (or pretending you had an IV equal to treatment residualized on controls) because you don't have to construct residuals and inference is simpler.

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Sep 3

How does the estimated effect in the first year compare with the OLS correlation between income and subjective well-being?

2

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 29

In that case, prices of imported goods increase, then stay (let's say) 15% elevated forever. That makes all future prices high relative to today, but doesn't make prices 30 months from now high relative to 29 months from now; so, it doesn't increase inflation measured 30 months from now.

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 29

Both apply. To an approximation, tariffs cause a one-time price increase. I would also bet on the courts ruling against the claimed tariff authority.

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 15

Good luck and don't forget to consolidate control of the security forces *before* implementing your vision for the department!

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 15

Was this the paper you're responding to? (See Figure 17 on page 179)
mdoepke.github.io/research/Doe...

mdoepke.github.io

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 12

The bastards!

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 12

Increase the tax base with bass taxes

1 1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 12

Fine, I will accept a temperature scale equal to 2*C. This will save a digit from every thermostat outside the US. We can name it after somewhere in Poland. Deal?

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 12

Witchcraft!

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 12

Fahrenheit is the unit of measurement where 1 degree corresponds to the minimum temperature change I can detect and have an opinion over.

Celsius is the unit of measurement which makes it easiest to compare the temperature of your house with the boiling point of water.

1

David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · Aug 12

Counterpoint: All other countries should switch to Fahrenheit.

1 1