Daniel Jones
@dcjones.bsky.social
Computational biologist / computer scientist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center https://dcjones.github.io/
Updating my plot on Katie Wilson's latest numbers compared to previous races. Progressive vote share sometimes drops a little in the last few percent, but it's extremely unlikely that it's enough to reverse her lead at this point.
November 11, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Updating my plot on Katie Wilson's latest numbers compared to previous races. Progressive vote share sometimes drops a little in the last few percent, but it's extremely unlikely that it's enough to reverse her lead at this point.
Or to look at in another way, the share of ballots the progressive takes on the last 17% counted has always met or exceeded their share on the second to last 17% in the 21 races I looked at.
November 10, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Or to look at in another way, the share of ballots the progressive takes on the last 17% counted has always met or exceeded their share on the second to last 17% in the 21 races I looked at.
Looking at historical daily counts, the share that the progressive takes typically doesn't go down from here. (Until the tiny updates at the end).
November 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Looking at historical daily counts, the share that the progressive takes typically doesn't go down from here. (Until the tiny updates at the end).
Though Wilson is on a slightly shallower trajectory on this plot, counting this year has lagged behind, so she should get bigger than average boost on Monday. (Green horizontal line is the current reported turnout this year)
November 8, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Though Wilson is on a slightly shallower trajectory on this plot, counting this year has lagged behind, so she should get bigger than average boost on Monday. (Green horizontal line is the current reported turnout this year)
Continuing to look at the late leftward swing in Seattle elections. Here's Katie Wilson's trajectory compared to every off-year election since 2017 (where there was a clear left candidate). Historically the swing usually surpasses what she needs to win (black line).
November 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Continuing to look at the late leftward swing in Seattle elections. Here's Katie Wilson's trajectory compared to every off-year election since 2017 (where there was a clear left candidate). Historically the swing usually surpasses what she needs to win (black line).
Updating my plot of historical counting trends in Seattle mayor elections. We are back to pretty a pretty standard trajectory (which is promising for Katie Wilson).
November 6, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Updating my plot of historical counting trends in Seattle mayor elections. We are back to pretty a pretty standard trajectory (which is promising for Katie Wilson).
Here's total counts compared to other elections. Reportedly only 192k ballots received, which would barely be an increase over the primary 😩
November 6, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Here's total counts compared to other elections. Reportedly only 192k ballots received, which would barely be an increase over the primary 😩
Day 1 of over-analyzing Seattle mayor election: here's how the margin has changed in this and previous elections. (Grey line is what Wilson has to hit to win)
November 5, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Day 1 of over-analyzing Seattle mayor election: here's how the margin has changed in this and previous elections. (Grey line is what Wilson has to hit to win)
Excellent photo choice from Reuters
October 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Excellent photo choice from Reuters
Working on a die shrink at the croissant fab. The goal is to get to 2 nanometers and take on TSMC.
September 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Working on a die shrink at the croissant fab. The goal is to get to 2 nanometers and take on TSMC.
Thanks! Ready for a Schattenfroh readthrough!
September 10, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Thanks! Ready for a Schattenfroh readthrough!
Holiday weekend lamination session
July 7, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Holiday weekend lamination session
I yearn for the day when our foreign policy is no longer dictated by this guy
June 22, 2025 at 1:31 AM
I yearn for the day when our foreign policy is no longer dictated by this guy
New political compass just dropped
May 29, 2025 at 1:38 AM
New political compass just dropped
How it's going today
April 18, 2025 at 5:25 PM
How it's going today
Now that we've returned to an 18th century understanding of medicine (miasma theory), politics (monarchy), and economics (mercantilism), can we please return to 18th century men's fashion?
April 3, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Now that we've returned to an 18th century understanding of medicine (miasma theory), politics (monarchy), and economics (mercantilism), can we please return to 18th century men's fashion?
This is pretty interesting, but there's also something so funny about using an elaborate linear algebra rube goldberg machine to do an 8-bit integer add. transformer-circuits.pub/2025/attribu...
March 29, 2025 at 7:22 PM
This is pretty interesting, but there's also something so funny about using an elaborate linear algebra rube goldberg machine to do an 8-bit integer add. transformer-circuits.pub/2025/attribu...
Practicing positive thinking and trying to manifest the collapse of all socially toxic speculative assets 🙏
February 28, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Practicing positive thinking and trying to manifest the collapse of all socially toxic speculative assets 🙏
Accidentally reversed the sign on a cell morphology prior and started minimizing rather than maximizing cell compactness
February 11, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Accidentally reversed the sign on a cell morphology prior and started minimizing rather than maximizing cell compactness
Cross-laminated pan au chocolat
February 3, 2025 at 3:53 AM
Cross-laminated pan au chocolat
Getting pretty good at lamination 🥐
January 26, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Getting pretty good at lamination 🥐