Daniel Jones
@dcjones.bsky.social
Computational biologist / computer scientist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center https://dcjones.github.io/
Updating my plot on Katie Wilson's latest numbers compared to previous races. Progressive vote share sometimes drops a little in the last few percent, but it's extremely unlikely that it's enough to reverse her lead at this point.
November 11, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Updating my plot on Katie Wilson's latest numbers compared to previous races. Progressive vote share sometimes drops a little in the last few percent, but it's extremely unlikely that it's enough to reverse her lead at this point.
They're calling him the Nate Silver of Seattle.
(Except I learned stats and epistemology from books, not internet poker, and I haven't cooked my brain with twitter addiction.)
(Except I learned stats and epistemology from books, not internet poker, and I haven't cooked my brain with twitter addiction.)
Last big drop of ballots hits this afternoon, so we'll see if I'm right, but I think Katie Wilson is going to win (by a narrow margin).
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
here's my attempt, with the red line showing where wilson would end up if she wins the same portion of remaining ballots that she won in the latest batch — it ends up being just a 0.2% margin
November 11, 2025 at 12:03 AM
They're calling him the Nate Silver of Seattle.
(Except I learned stats and epistemology from books, not internet poker, and I haven't cooked my brain with twitter addiction.)
(Except I learned stats and epistemology from books, not internet poker, and I haven't cooked my brain with twitter addiction.)
Reposted by Daniel Jones
Incredible. Progressive challenger Katie Wilson now has a 91-vote lead in Seattle’s race for mayor. She had been steadily gaining on incumbent Bruce Harrell.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
November 10, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Incredible. Progressive challenger Katie Wilson now has a 91-vote lead in Seattle’s race for mayor. She had been steadily gaining on incumbent Bruce Harrell.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
There are about 8,000 ballots left to count.
Reposted by Daniel Jones
Last big drop of ballots hits this afternoon, so we'll see if I'm right, but I think Katie Wilson is going to win (by a narrow margin).
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
here's my attempt, with the red line showing where wilson would end up if she wins the same portion of remaining ballots that she won in the latest batch — it ends up being just a 0.2% margin
November 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Last big drop of ballots hits this afternoon, so we'll see if I'm right, but I think Katie Wilson is going to win (by a narrow margin).
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
Turns out the ongoing debate about the dangers of increased surveillance in the city was not entirely hypothetical.
There was no sign ICE accessed Redmond's Flock system before Monday's arrests, but city officials said residents remained concerned about the technology.
Redmond turns off Flock Safety cameras after ICE arrests
www.seattletimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Turns out the ongoing debate about the dangers of increased surveillance in the city was not entirely hypothetical.
Last big drop of ballots hits this afternoon, so we'll see if I'm right, but I think Katie Wilson is going to win (by a narrow margin).
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
here's my attempt, with the red line showing where wilson would end up if she wins the same portion of remaining ballots that she won in the latest batch — it ends up being just a 0.2% margin
November 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Last big drop of ballots hits this afternoon, so we'll see if I'm right, but I think Katie Wilson is going to win (by a narrow margin).
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
As shown here, she needs to as well or better in the last 17% of the ballots as she did on Friday's drop. The good news is that this is pretty likely.
Continuing to look at the late leftward swing in Seattle elections. Here's Katie Wilson's trajectory compared to every off-year election since 2017 (where there was a clear left candidate). Historically the swing usually surpasses what she needs to win (black line).
November 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Continuing to look at the late leftward swing in Seattle elections. Here's Katie Wilson's trajectory compared to every off-year election since 2017 (where there was a clear left candidate). Historically the swing usually surpasses what she needs to win (black line).
Reposted by Daniel Jones
Thanks to @dcjones.bsky.social, I have key info!
The progressive percentage of the Friday vote count is typically much higher on Friday than Thursday.
Moon's was 9% higher on Friday than Thursday.
Gonzales' was 5%
Wilson primary was 14%.
Thursday to Monday they were 12%, 4.5%, and 12%.
The progressive percentage of the Friday vote count is typically much higher on Friday than Thursday.
Moon's was 9% higher on Friday than Thursday.
Gonzales' was 5%
Wilson primary was 14%.
Thursday to Monday they were 12%, 4.5%, and 12%.
November 7, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Thanks to @dcjones.bsky.social, I have key info!
The progressive percentage of the Friday vote count is typically much higher on Friday than Thursday.
Moon's was 9% higher on Friday than Thursday.
Gonzales' was 5%
Wilson primary was 14%.
Thursday to Monday they were 12%, 4.5%, and 12%.
The progressive percentage of the Friday vote count is typically much higher on Friday than Thursday.
Moon's was 9% higher on Friday than Thursday.
Gonzales' was 5%
Wilson primary was 14%.
Thursday to Monday they were 12%, 4.5%, and 12%.
Updating my plot of historical counting trends in Seattle mayor elections. We are back to pretty a pretty standard trajectory (which is promising for Katie Wilson).
November 6, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Updating my plot of historical counting trends in Seattle mayor elections. We are back to pretty a pretty standard trajectory (which is promising for Katie Wilson).
Reposted by Daniel Jones
My take? @wilsonforseattle.bsky.social is still the favorite.
Until we have Thursday drop data (assuming it is election day dropbox data), we have no good reason to think otherwise, even if we do have reason to FEEL nervous.
rondezvouswa.com/p/katie-wils...
Until we have Thursday drop data (assuming it is election day dropbox data), we have no good reason to think otherwise, even if we do have reason to FEEL nervous.
rondezvouswa.com/p/katie-wils...
November 6, 2025 at 5:25 AM
My take? @wilsonforseattle.bsky.social is still the favorite.
Until we have Thursday drop data (assuming it is election day dropbox data), we have no good reason to think otherwise, even if we do have reason to FEEL nervous.
rondezvouswa.com/p/katie-wils...
Until we have Thursday drop data (assuming it is election day dropbox data), we have no good reason to think otherwise, even if we do have reason to FEEL nervous.
rondezvouswa.com/p/katie-wils...
Day 1 of over-analyzing Seattle mayor election: here's how the margin has changed in this and previous elections. (Grey line is what Wilson has to hit to win)
November 5, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Day 1 of over-analyzing Seattle mayor election: here's how the margin has changed in this and previous elections. (Grey line is what Wilson has to hit to win)
Reposted by Daniel Jones
holy shit i flew over it as it happened!
October 11, 2025 at 5:11 AM
holy shit i flew over it as it happened!
Reposted by Daniel Jones
The three AI outcomes
- we all become one with the machine god and shuffle off our mortal coils to live as a hive mind of cyborg superbeings
- we all die horribly and painfully in an alien world that has no use for human emotion, creativity, or intellect
- 1.5% TFP growth for seven years
- we all become one with the machine god and shuffle off our mortal coils to live as a hive mind of cyborg superbeings
- we all die horribly and painfully in an alien world that has no use for human emotion, creativity, or intellect
- 1.5% TFP growth for seven years
October 10, 2025 at 11:30 PM
The three AI outcomes
- we all become one with the machine god and shuffle off our mortal coils to live as a hive mind of cyborg superbeings
- we all die horribly and painfully in an alien world that has no use for human emotion, creativity, or intellect
- 1.5% TFP growth for seven years
- we all become one with the machine god and shuffle off our mortal coils to live as a hive mind of cyborg superbeings
- we all die horribly and painfully in an alien world that has no use for human emotion, creativity, or intellect
- 1.5% TFP growth for seven years
Reposted by Daniel Jones
Now that I'm settled in at @umasschan.bsky.social, I'm hiring at all levels: grad students, post-docs, and software engineers/bioinformaticians!
The goal of my lab is to understand the regulatory role of every nucleotide in our genomes and how this changes across every cell in our bodies.
The goal of my lab is to understand the regulatory role of every nucleotide in our genomes and how this changes across every cell in our bodies.
October 7, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Now that I'm settled in at @umasschan.bsky.social, I'm hiring at all levels: grad students, post-docs, and software engineers/bioinformaticians!
The goal of my lab is to understand the regulatory role of every nucleotide in our genomes and how this changes across every cell in our bodies.
The goal of my lab is to understand the regulatory role of every nucleotide in our genomes and how this changes across every cell in our bodies.
Excellent photo choice from Reuters
October 7, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Excellent photo choice from Reuters
Reposted by Daniel Jones
Congrats to Mary Brunkow of #seattle for #immunology discoveries leading to shared #Nobel ...
Congrats to Institute for Systems Biology.
#research #science
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/h...
Congrats to Institute for Systems Biology.
#research #science
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/h...
Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine Is Awarded for Work on Immune Systems
www.nytimes.com
October 6, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Congrats to Mary Brunkow of #seattle for #immunology discoveries leading to shared #Nobel ...
Congrats to Institute for Systems Biology.
#research #science
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/h...
Congrats to Institute for Systems Biology.
#research #science
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/h...
Reposted by Daniel Jones
ai2 is pretty consistently the most serious about open sourcing things that are useful for research imho
Introducing Asta DataVoyager—our new AI capability in Asta that turns structured data into transparent, reproducible insights. Built for scientists, grounded in open, inspectable workflows. 🧵
October 1, 2025 at 3:07 PM
ai2 is pretty consistently the most serious about open sourcing things that are useful for research imho
Reposted by Daniel Jones
Good start. Next move should be moving the corporate HQ back to Seattle.
September 30, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Good start. Next move should be moving the corporate HQ back to Seattle.
Working on a die shrink at the croissant fab. The goal is to get to 2 nanometers and take on TSMC.
September 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Working on a die shrink at the croissant fab. The goal is to get to 2 nanometers and take on TSMC.
Aimé Césaire stays undefeated: "colonization works to decivilize the colonizer, to brutalize him in the true sense of the word, to degrade him, to awaken him to buried instincts, to covetousness, violence, race hatred, and moral relativism..."
The President of the United States is threatening to go to war with an American city.
This is not a joke. This is not normal.
Donald Trump isn't a strongman, he's a scared man. Illinois won’t be intimidated by a wannabe dictator.
This is not a joke. This is not normal.
Donald Trump isn't a strongman, he's a scared man. Illinois won’t be intimidated by a wannabe dictator.
September 6, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Aimé Césaire stays undefeated: "colonization works to decivilize the colonizer, to brutalize him in the true sense of the word, to degrade him, to awaken him to buried instincts, to covetousness, violence, race hatred, and moral relativism..."
Fighting an irrational urge to learn Uiua www.uiua.org
Uiua
A tacit array programming language
www.uiua.org
August 27, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Fighting an irrational urge to learn Uiua www.uiua.org
Reposted by Daniel Jones
2 bits of data from new Economist/YouGov poll.....
13% support for cutting research funding to universities. 24% among Republicans. Polling on this continues to be catastrophic for the Rs, suggests Dems should be learning far harder into standing up for science and our universities. 1/
13% support for cutting research funding to universities. 24% among Republicans. Polling on this continues to be catastrophic for the Rs, suggests Dems should be learning far harder into standing up for science and our universities. 1/
August 19, 2025 at 3:04 PM
2 bits of data from new Economist/YouGov poll.....
13% support for cutting research funding to universities. 24% among Republicans. Polling on this continues to be catastrophic for the Rs, suggests Dems should be learning far harder into standing up for science and our universities. 1/
13% support for cutting research funding to universities. 24% among Republicans. Polling on this continues to be catastrophic for the Rs, suggests Dems should be learning far harder into standing up for science and our universities. 1/
Reposted by Daniel Jones
Just released Proseg 3, which has some major performance improvements, support for Visium HD, and can output directly zarr formatted spatialdata objects.
crates.io/crates/proseg
crates.io/crates/proseg
crates.io: Rust Package Registry
crates.io
August 7, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Just released Proseg 3, which has some major performance improvements, support for Visium HD, and can output directly zarr formatted spatialdata objects.
crates.io/crates/proseg
crates.io/crates/proseg
Just released Proseg 3, which has some major performance improvements, support for Visium HD, and can output directly zarr formatted spatialdata objects.
crates.io/crates/proseg
crates.io/crates/proseg
crates.io: Rust Package Registry
crates.io
August 7, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Just released Proseg 3, which has some major performance improvements, support for Visium HD, and can output directly zarr formatted spatialdata objects.
crates.io/crates/proseg
crates.io/crates/proseg
Interesting attempt to infer a phylogenetic tree of llms www.dbreunig.com/2025/05/30/u...
Using ‘Slop Forensics’ to Determine Model Ancestry
Yesterday, after playing with some smaller models, I started to experiment with the idea of a flowchart for determining a model’s ancestry with a few prompts. For example, could you ask it about state...
www.dbreunig.com
August 1, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Interesting attempt to infer a phylogenetic tree of llms www.dbreunig.com/2025/05/30/u...