Be well. Random acts of kindness are under appreciated. Find time to laugh between the tears.

Break bread, not ties when possible. Be kind; pay it forward.

We all face challenges. I have plenty of my own, whether they be my health, physical and mental, or the worry I carry with me each and every day for the future for my kids - a hazard of the job.

My own view on life is that the older I get, the less I realize I actually know. That creates a hunger to learn and grow. Thank you for the respectful dialogue.

May whatever enables you to see love and joy amidst the chaos fill your heart this Valentine’s Day weekend.

I have been quieter than usual on many of my platforms. The vitriol & threats scared my kids. That is 💔.

With a month devoted to love, I will just say I have seen a shift on my own feeds that is rooted in more healthy debate & learning. I appreciate that.

Adam and I respectfully disagreed on the post pandemic inflation being transitory - he owned it and has introduced what is an important risk that the Fed is not talking about. The uncertainty about the course of inflation today is much higher than post pandemic. So many moving parts…nuts.

That fueled stickier post pandemic inflation. We don’t have as much stimulus nor do we expect as much inflation from it. BUT, Congress flirting wit stimulus checks prior to midterms is one of many risks on inflation.

No. We have a rate cut in June or July. It is technically in June in the forecast. There is more inflation due to tariffs in the pipeline but we don’t know how persistent it will be. Should fade as we move toward second half, with some step down and waivers by admin. The wildcard is fiscal stimulus

…knowing that the Fed is still in “wait-and-see” mode on inflation and there is more than meets the eye in the inflation data. Do not look for the Fed to declare “mission accomplished” until well into the second half, after we know for sure that the tariff-induced inflation has faded.

The result hit margins & manufacturing employment hard last year.

What is still unknown is how expansions to tax cuts & a surge in refunds could buoy inflation. Stimulus helped inflation linger post pandemic.

Bottom line

I will take small wins…

Indeed, tariff waivers have picked up, while the problems with a stacking of tariffs are being addressed.

Domestic vehicle producers were paying more to produce in the US than many importer. That is the opposite of what the administration said it hoped to accomplish.

Still, goods prices soared at the fastest pace since 2023, buoyed by tariffs. Service sector prices are proving sticky.

The administration has threatened but not acted to raise tariffs since the start of the year.

However, a loss of data during the October government shutdown resulted in a zeroing out of many price hikes in October.

We also saw an update to seasonal factors, which means we did not get the usual bump in January.

…half of Americans are more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI in daily life. Increased concern may lead consumers to veer away from products and services that make use of AI.”

…their own work with AI. Falsely claiming that AI is the reason for layoffs may also nurture cynicism among employees about AI and its implications. Even the larger society may become more negative about AI than it already is; one 2025 survey suggested that…

…AI may be appealing to the press or to investment analysts, it has important negative consequences. It may, for example, suggest to remaining employees that they will soon lose their jobs too. Perhaps that is intended, but it will likely prevent them from exploring how best to improve…

In other words, the job losses and slowed hiring are real, even though companies are still waiting for generative AI to deliver on its promises.”

Penny wise, pound foolish? This is the conclusion warning.

“While announcing layoffs or slower-to-no hiring because of…