Diane Swonk
@dianeswonk.bsky.social
Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my own
Gut-wrenching drop in both the U Michigan and Conference Board surveys in November.
Mentions of tariff and trade still high, while assessment of labor market deteriorating further. Worries about recession rose.
Mentions of tariff and trade still high, while assessment of labor market deteriorating further. Worries about recession rose.
November 25, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Gut-wrenching drop in both the U Michigan and Conference Board surveys in November.
Mentions of tariff and trade still high, while assessment of labor market deteriorating further. Worries about recession rose.
Mentions of tariff and trade still high, while assessment of labor market deteriorating further. Worries about recession rose.
Retail sales weak, while portions of PPI hot - airfares up at fastest pace in PPI since March 2022.
Major margin compression for retailers, automakers & machinery, as tariffs make their way through supply chains.
Major margin compression for retailers, automakers & machinery, as tariffs make their way through supply chains.
November 25, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Retail sales weak, while portions of PPI hot - airfares up at fastest pace in PPI since March 2022.
Major margin compression for retailers, automakers & machinery, as tariffs make their way through supply chains.
Major margin compression for retailers, automakers & machinery, as tariffs make their way through supply chains.
I have a slightly different take. If @federalreserve Chair Powell were a lame duck chair, he would not have been able to whip those closest to him toward a considering a cut, which he seemed to prefer even as he underscored the divisions he bore witness to at the October meeting.
Whiplash in December Fed rate expectations is stunning.
As this Bbg chart shows, the probability of a 25bp cut went from >90% to <30% and is heading back up strongly—all in one month.
This kind of wild volatility is the opposite of the "predictability and stability" the Fed strives for,especially...
As this Bbg chart shows, the probability of a 25bp cut went from >90% to <30% and is heading back up strongly—all in one month.
This kind of wild volatility is the opposite of the "predictability and stability" the Fed strives for,especially...
November 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
I have a slightly different take. If @federalreserve Chair Powell were a lame duck chair, he would not have been able to whip those closest to him toward a considering a cut, which he seemed to prefer even as he underscored the divisions he bore witness to at the October meeting.
I have been looking into metaphors for a one legged stool, given how concentrated economic gains have become. AI infrastructure and the wealth it created accounted for an inordinate amount of growth over the last two years, despite a sharp slowdown in employment.
November 22, 2025 at 4:04 PM
I have been looking into metaphors for a one legged stool, given how concentrated economic gains have become. AI infrastructure and the wealth it created accounted for an inordinate amount of growth over the last two years, despite a sharp slowdown in employment.
Should Fed weigh merits of an inter-meeting decision?
It is no secret that the Fed is deeply divided over whether to cut in December, skip a meeting or not cut at all. The government shutdown has left us with data delays and holes in the data, which further complicate that calculus.
It is no secret that the Fed is deeply divided over whether to cut in December, skip a meeting or not cut at all. The government shutdown has left us with data delays and holes in the data, which further complicate that calculus.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Should Fed weigh merits of an inter-meeting decision?
It is no secret that the Fed is deeply divided over whether to cut in December, skip a meeting or not cut at all. The government shutdown has left us with data delays and holes in the data, which further complicate that calculus.
It is no secret that the Fed is deeply divided over whether to cut in December, skip a meeting or not cut at all. The government shutdown has left us with data delays and holes in the data, which further complicate that calculus.
NY Fed Pres Williams got the markets on a tear with his dovish comments on a December cut.
Philly Fed Pres Paulson, who had staked out her views in Oct for cuts in both Oct & Dec showed more caution. These lines stood out of her speech stood out.
Philly Fed Pres Paulson, who had staked out her views in Oct for cuts in both Oct & Dec showed more caution. These lines stood out of her speech stood out.
November 21, 2025 at 6:22 PM
NY Fed Pres Williams got the markets on a tear with his dovish comments on a December cut.
Philly Fed Pres Paulson, who had staked out her views in Oct for cuts in both Oct & Dec showed more caution. These lines stood out of her speech stood out.
Philly Fed Pres Paulson, who had staked out her views in Oct for cuts in both Oct & Dec showed more caution. These lines stood out of her speech stood out.
It is official. No CPI report for October. They will needs to impute some figures for the month when they estimate GDP as they need to deflate the GDP data and some components of PCE index are in the CPI.
November 21, 2025 at 4:34 PM
It is official. No CPI report for October. They will needs to impute some figures for the month when they estimate GDP as they need to deflate the GDP data and some components of PCE index are in the CPI.
Consumer sentiment continued its downward march in November. Inflation expectations are elevated but have cooled since Spring, while job security eroding. Younger workers most worried about jobs, while those with large stock holdings have lost the mojo they had in Sept & earlier in the month.
November 21, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Consumer sentiment continued its downward march in November. Inflation expectations are elevated but have cooled since Spring, while job security eroding. Younger workers most worried about jobs, while those with large stock holdings have lost the mojo they had in Sept & earlier in the month.
Existing home sales got slight lift in Oct; these reflect closings and offers made more than a month prior. All cash still high even as first time buyers saw some gains. Midwest & South are most affordable for first time buyers. East & West not so much.
share.google/EqwCSo7F7mMd...
share.google/EqwCSo7F7mMd...
NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October
Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates.
share.google
November 20, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Existing home sales got slight lift in Oct; these reflect closings and offers made more than a month prior. All cash still high even as first time buyers saw some gains. Midwest & South are most affordable for first time buyers. East & West not so much.
share.google/EqwCSo7F7mMd...
share.google/EqwCSo7F7mMd...
Coming up on @bloomberg.com TV to talk jobs and Fed’s dilemma.
November 20, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Coming up on @bloomberg.com TV to talk jobs and Fed’s dilemma.
A more detailed look at the September report, the last full report we will have prior to November. The October payrolls will be released with revisions to September with the full November report (which was delayed and couldn’t be distorted) on December 16.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Payrolls rise, revisions drag on total
Healthcare and hospitality jobs continued to expand.
kpmg.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:16 PM
A more detailed look at the September report, the last full report we will have prior to November. The October payrolls will be released with revisions to September with the full November report (which was delayed and couldn’t be distorted) on December 16.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Payrolls jump more than expected 119,000 in September, but hiring over the summer was revised down even further. Gains in the service sector - healthcare and social assistance and leisure and hospitality accounted for nearly all of those gains. Construction also added jobs to build data centers.
November 20, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Payrolls jump more than expected 119,000 in September, but hiring over the summer was revised down even further. Gains in the service sector - healthcare and social assistance and leisure and hospitality accounted for nearly all of those gains. Construction also added jobs to build data centers.
Innovations often trigger manias in investment, which can become bubbles. Investors bet the potential offered by the innovation before they know who will be the actual financial winners. The result may enable adoption even as some initial investors lose their shirts.
November 19, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Innovations often trigger manias in investment, which can become bubbles. Investors bet the potential offered by the innovation before they know who will be the actual financial winners. The result may enable adoption even as some initial investors lose their shirts.
Dearth of data. The BLS will release the employment situation, which is two surveys - the establishment and the household - for November on December 16 AFTER the Federal Reserve meets on December 10. The October establishment will be backfilled.
November 19, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Dearth of data. The BLS will release the employment situation, which is two surveys - the establishment and the household - for November on December 16 AFTER the Federal Reserve meets on December 10. The October establishment will be backfilled.
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
November 17, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
A reminder: inflation burns but it is the level of prices relative to income that most consumers are struggling with. Too many don’t have the income to make ends meet. That is the result of compounding price increases without broad enough gains in wages …
November 16, 2025 at 5:29 PM
A reminder: inflation burns but it is the level of prices relative to income that most consumers are struggling with. Too many don’t have the income to make ends meet. That is the result of compounding price increases without broad enough gains in wages …
Has the Fed changed its tune? No
There was a large minority of the participants at the September meeting who either did not want to cut or were ok with only that cut. They didn’t dissent at that meeting, but one President, who usually doesn’t cast a dissenting vote in a vacuum did do so in Oct.
There was a large minority of the participants at the September meeting who either did not want to cut or were ok with only that cut. They didn’t dissent at that meeting, but one President, who usually doesn’t cast a dissenting vote in a vacuum did do so in Oct.
November 16, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Has the Fed changed its tune? No
There was a large minority of the participants at the September meeting who either did not want to cut or were ok with only that cut. They didn’t dissent at that meeting, but one President, who usually doesn’t cast a dissenting vote in a vacuum did do so in Oct.
There was a large minority of the participants at the September meeting who either did not want to cut or were ok with only that cut. They didn’t dissent at that meeting, but one President, who usually doesn’t cast a dissenting vote in a vacuum did do so in Oct.
Coming up on CNBC at noon central/one est.
November 14, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Coming up on CNBC at noon central/one est.
Reposted by Diane Swonk
Watch BBC News Channel to hear @KPMG_US chief economist @dianeswonk.bsky.social assess where the economy stands after the long government shutdown. She'll be talking to Lewis Vaughan Jones in London and Caitriona Perry in DC.
November 13, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Watch BBC News Channel to hear @KPMG_US chief economist @dianeswonk.bsky.social assess where the economy stands after the long government shutdown. She'll be talking to Lewis Vaughan Jones in London and Caitriona Perry in DC.
A dilemma for the Fed.
“It is easier to forecast stagflation than live it I real time…”
Dealing with the Federal Reserve’s now dueling mandate reveals divisions.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/swonk-sees...
“It is easier to forecast stagflation than live it I real time…”
Dealing with the Federal Reserve’s now dueling mandate reveals divisions.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/swonk-sees...
Swonk Sees Shutdown-Driven Job Weakness vs Risk of Stickier Inflation: Which Will Fed Heed?
KPMG's Chief U.S. Economist says Fed must also reckon with big fiscal stimulus boost starting in January, impact of continued strong AI investment and spending next year
kathleenhays.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:29 PM
A dilemma for the Fed.
“It is easier to forecast stagflation than live it I real time…”
Dealing with the Federal Reserve’s now dueling mandate reveals divisions.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/swonk-sees...
“It is easier to forecast stagflation than live it I real time…”
Dealing with the Federal Reserve’s now dueling mandate reveals divisions.
kathleenhays.substack.com/p/swonk-sees...
Coming up on Bloomberg at 10 est.
November 7, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Coming up on Bloomberg at 10 est.
My take on the jobless boom we are riding is here.
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Rising tide fails to lift all boats
A jobless boom
kpmg.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:28 PM
My take on the jobless boom we are riding is here.
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Mortgage winter got about 🥶
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
First-Time Home Buyer Share Falls to Historic Low of 21%, Median Age Rises to 40
The historically low share of first-time buyers underscores the real-world consequences of a housing market starved for affordable inventory.
share.google
November 4, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Mortgage winter got about 🥶
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
Working on a new piece laying out why we are experiencing a jobless boom.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
November 1, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Working on a new piece laying out why we are experiencing a jobless boom.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
My take on a contensious rate cut by the Fed. Powell waffles on December cut.
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Fed cuts amidst dueling mandate
December “not a forgone conclusion”
kpmg.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:38 PM
My take on a contensious rate cut by the Fed. Powell waffles on December cut.
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...