Diane Swonk
@dianeswonk.bsky.social
Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my own
Sharing this here. I posted it elsewhere and it applies to everywhere I post these days. Thank you for those that made this post possible.
February 14, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Sharing this here. I posted it elsewhere and it applies to everywhere I post these days. Thank you for those that made this post possible.
Trust is like fractures under a frozen lake…the ground looks solid even as the weight of each step makes the fault lines larger from beneath…
My take on this excellent summation of the US economy by @dianeswonk.bsky.social is that it is indicative of a status quo that has momentum but that is more vulnerable to large downside risks when that momentum breaks.
February 13, 2026 at 7:45 PM
Trust is like fractures under a frozen lake…the ground looks solid even as the weight of each step makes the fault lines larger from beneath…
Reposted by Diane Swonk
The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 4.4% (on an annualized basis) in January, following a 3.4% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 3.0%.: atlfed.org/3OofhMU.
February 13, 2026 at 7:07 PM
The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 4.4% (on an annualized basis) in January, following a 3.4% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 3.0%.: atlfed.org/3OofhMU.
Reposted by Diane Swonk
Watch Bloomberg TV at 3pm Eastern to hear KPMG US chief economist Diane Swonk parse the new inflation data with hosts Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld.
February 13, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Watch Bloomberg TV at 3pm Eastern to hear KPMG US chief economist Diane Swonk parse the new inflation data with hosts Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld.
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown.
The overall index posted its coolest reading since May 2025, with a 2.4% increase.
The overall index posted its coolest reading since May 2025, with a 2.4% increase.
February 13, 2026 at 4:25 PM
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown.
The overall index posted its coolest reading since May 2025, with a 2.4% increase.
The overall index posted its coolest reading since May 2025, with a 2.4% increase.
Deficits larger at the same time more of our Treasury debt being bough by highly leveraged hedge funds instead of institutional buyer - central banks & pensions. Hedge funds are more price sensitive and apt to bolt with a shock. More susceptible to spike in yields, all else equal. ⬇️
Updated CBO deficit/debt forecast. Good summary from CBO Director Phil Swagel. www.cbo.gov/publication/...
February 11, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Deficits larger at the same time more of our Treasury debt being bough by highly leveraged hedge funds instead of institutional buyer - central banks & pensions. Hedge funds are more price sensitive and apt to bolt with a shock. More susceptible to spike in yields, all else equal. ⬇️
My take on a healing in the labor market. Catch up to government shutdown helped alleviate ranks of those on temporary layoff & forced to accept part over full-time work.
Read my take.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Read my take.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Payrolls revised down in 2025, rebounded in January
Long-term unemployment ebbed.
kpmg.com
February 11, 2026 at 4:21 PM
My take on a healing in the labor market. Catch up to government shutdown helped alleviate ranks of those on temporary layoff & forced to accept part over full-time work.
Read my take.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Read my take.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Reposted by Diane Swonk
Consumers took on additional debt in order to spend during the holiday season. Look at this analysis from KPMG senior economist Matt Nestler to see what that could mean down the road.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Consumers tapped credit to spend more
Student debt is growing.
kpmg.com
February 6, 2026 at 9:53 PM
Consumers took on additional debt in order to spend during the holiday season. Look at this analysis from KPMG senior economist Matt Nestler to see what that could mean down the road.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Interesting paper gaming out AI impacts.
“Ultimately…the effect of A.I. will be much larger
than the internet, perhaps by more than 10x the internet, albeit over a half century or
more. It would be prudent to spend the intervening time making preparations for the…
“Ultimately…the effect of A.I. will be much larger
than the internet, perhaps by more than 10x the internet, albeit over a half century or
more. It would be prudent to spend the intervening time making preparations for the…
February 7, 2026 at 9:44 PM
Interesting paper gaming out AI impacts.
“Ultimately…the effect of A.I. will be much larger
than the internet, perhaps by more than 10x the internet, albeit over a half century or
more. It would be prudent to spend the intervening time making preparations for the…
“Ultimately…the effect of A.I. will be much larger
than the internet, perhaps by more than 10x the internet, albeit over a half century or
more. It would be prudent to spend the intervening time making preparations for the…
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a speech on the economy highlighting the challenge she felt the economy faced. Most notably, improvements in inflation have stalled.
That acts as a regressive tax on the economy. It hits those who can afford it least and opens the door to a prolonged..
That acts as a regressive tax on the economy. It hits those who can afford it least and opens the door to a prolonged..
February 5, 2026 at 12:45 PM
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a speech on the economy highlighting the challenge she felt the economy faced. Most notably, improvements in inflation have stalled.
That acts as a regressive tax on the economy. It hits those who can afford it least and opens the door to a prolonged..
That acts as a regressive tax on the economy. It hits those who can afford it least and opens the door to a prolonged..
ISM services index was unchanged in Jan from Dec but devil in the details.
Employment remained in expansion territory but just barely, while prices move up. Data center construction is stressing supply chains & adding to cost pressures. Tariffs another issue.
www.prnewswire.com/news-release...
Employment remained in expansion territory but just barely, while prices move up. Data center construction is stressing supply chains & adding to cost pressures. Tariffs another issue.
www.prnewswire.com/news-release...
Services PMI® at 53.8%; January 2026 ISM® Services PMI® Report
/PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in January, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM®...
www.prnewswire.com
February 4, 2026 at 7:43 PM
ISM services index was unchanged in Jan from Dec but devil in the details.
Employment remained in expansion territory but just barely, while prices move up. Data center construction is stressing supply chains & adding to cost pressures. Tariffs another issue.
www.prnewswire.com/news-release...
Employment remained in expansion territory but just barely, while prices move up. Data center construction is stressing supply chains & adding to cost pressures. Tariffs another issue.
www.prnewswire.com/news-release...
ADP employment report shows we have yet to break free from the low hire, low fire environment of 2025.
Private payrolls rose only 22,000 in January after a downward revision to December.
Gains were concentrated in small and midsized firms. Large firms shed jobs.
Private payrolls rose only 22,000 in January after a downward revision to December.
Gains were concentrated in small and midsized firms. Large firms shed jobs.
February 4, 2026 at 2:05 PM
ADP employment report shows we have yet to break free from the low hire, low fire environment of 2025.
Private payrolls rose only 22,000 in January after a downward revision to December.
Gains were concentrated in small and midsized firms. Large firms shed jobs.
Private payrolls rose only 22,000 in January after a downward revision to December.
Gains were concentrated in small and midsized firms. Large firms shed jobs.
Navigating a global trust deficit
Trust is quite literally the oil of the market machine. High levels of trust act as a lubricant, enabling even the simplest tractions to move forward with little costs. Low levels toss sand into the gears of the market machine.
Trust is quite literally the oil of the market machine. High levels of trust act as a lubricant, enabling even the simplest tractions to move forward with little costs. Low levels toss sand into the gears of the market machine.
February 3, 2026 at 7:35 PM
Navigating a global trust deficit
Trust is quite literally the oil of the market machine. High levels of trust act as a lubricant, enabling even the simplest tractions to move forward with little costs. Low levels toss sand into the gears of the market machine.
Trust is quite literally the oil of the market machine. High levels of trust act as a lubricant, enabling even the simplest tractions to move forward with little costs. Low levels toss sand into the gears of the market machine.
Producer price index came in hottest three month and six month pace since 2022 - not a good year for inflation.
The components that feed into the PCE index of inflation, which the Federal Reserve target, were not as bad but underscores why Powell was careful in declaring victory on inflation.
The components that feed into the PCE index of inflation, which the Federal Reserve target, were not as bad but underscores why Powell was careful in declaring victory on inflation.
January 30, 2026 at 3:01 PM
Producer price index came in hottest three month and six month pace since 2022 - not a good year for inflation.
The components that feed into the PCE index of inflation, which the Federal Reserve target, were not as bad but underscores why Powell was careful in declaring victory on inflation.
The components that feed into the PCE index of inflation, which the Federal Reserve target, were not as bad but underscores why Powell was careful in declaring victory on inflation.
Gold wreaks havoc on trade deficit. Gold for investment purposes is asset and not considered in the GDP data, which tracks production of goods and services.
The AI boom, which have tariffs waivers to compete in what is rapidly become an arms race in AI.
The AI boom, which have tariffs waivers to compete in what is rapidly become an arms race in AI.
January 29, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Gold wreaks havoc on trade deficit. Gold for investment purposes is asset and not considered in the GDP data, which tracks production of goods and services.
The AI boom, which have tariffs waivers to compete in what is rapidly become an arms race in AI.
The AI boom, which have tariffs waivers to compete in what is rapidly become an arms race in AI.
My take on the Fed and where we are. Long pause, no victory laps yet on inflation. Powell doesn’t expect clarity on whether inflation coming down until at least mid-year. New Fed Chair may want to hold off on rate cut in June to reassure makers that won’t overstimulate.
January 28, 2026 at 9:40 PM
My take on the Fed and where we are. Long pause, no victory laps yet on inflation. Powell doesn’t expect clarity on whether inflation coming down until at least mid-year. New Fed Chair may want to hold off on rate cut in June to reassure makers that won’t overstimulate.
Coming up on @bloombergtv.bsky.social to discuss Federal Reserve decision at 2 est.
January 28, 2026 at 6:15 PM
Coming up on @bloombergtv.bsky.social to discuss Federal Reserve decision at 2 est.
Emerging markets were among the first central banks to hike and deal with the post pandemic inflation. Why?
January 24, 2026 at 5:16 PM
Emerging markets were among the first central banks to hike and deal with the post pandemic inflation. Why?
Reposted by Diane Swonk
Read this analysis by KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk to get ready for the first Fed meeting of the year next week. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
A pregnant pause at the Fed
Voting members change.
kpmg.com
January 23, 2026 at 5:12 PM
Read this analysis by KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk to get ready for the first Fed meeting of the year next week. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
My full write up of the personal consumption and income report on October and November.
My deepest apologies for earlier typos. My dyslexia is worse when sleep is low. Not an excuse, just the cross I bear. I am so sorry if that had offended people.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
My deepest apologies for earlier typos. My dyslexia is worse when sleep is low. Not an excuse, just the cross I bear. I am so sorry if that had offended people.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Affluent consumers buoy spending
Stalled incomes and plummeting savings.
kpmg.com
January 22, 2026 at 6:08 PM
My full write up of the personal consumption and income report on October and November.
My deepest apologies for earlier typos. My dyslexia is worse when sleep is low. Not an excuse, just the cross I bear. I am so sorry if that had offended people.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
My deepest apologies for earlier typos. My dyslexia is worse when sleep is low. Not an excuse, just the cross I bear. I am so sorry if that had offended people.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
“
“Affluent” households “continue to power the economy forward,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG. “The concentration of gains in the hands of a few households masked the underlying pain many are expressing in consumer attitude surveys.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/b...
“Affluent” households “continue to power the economy forward,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG. “The concentration of gains in the hands of a few households masked the underlying pain many are expressing in consumer attitude surveys.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/b...
www.nytimes.com
January 22, 2026 at 5:35 PM
“
“Affluent” households “continue to power the economy forward,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG. “The concentration of gains in the hands of a few households masked the underlying pain many are expressing in consumer attitude surveys.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/b...
“Affluent” households “continue to power the economy forward,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG. “The concentration of gains in the hands of a few households masked the underlying pain many are expressing in consumer attitude surveys.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/b...
PCE, spending and income out. Resilience ad a price.
Consumer spending saps savings, inflation buoyant on Federal Reserve’s favored measure in services as well as goods.
Saving rate lowest since blistering inflation of late 2022.
Incomes flat, after slight contraction in third quarter. Hard. 💔
Consumer spending saps savings, inflation buoyant on Federal Reserve’s favored measure in services as well as goods.
Saving rate lowest since blistering inflation of late 2022.
Incomes flat, after slight contraction in third quarter. Hard. 💔
January 22, 2026 at 3:42 PM
PCE, spending and income out. Resilience ad a price.
Consumer spending saps savings, inflation buoyant on Federal Reserve’s favored measure in services as well as goods.
Saving rate lowest since blistering inflation of late 2022.
Incomes flat, after slight contraction in third quarter. Hard. 💔
Consumer spending saps savings, inflation buoyant on Federal Reserve’s favored measure in services as well as goods.
Saving rate lowest since blistering inflation of late 2022.
Incomes flat, after slight contraction in third quarter. Hard. 💔
New study affirms what all other studies show. Importers and consumers, not foreign exporters bore the brunt of tariffs.
Spike in uncertainty in April 2025 during the tariff tantrum showed up as paralysis in hiring much of the year since then - a little more than 84% of all jobs for 2025
Spike in uncertainty in April 2025 during the tariff tantrum showed up as paralysis in hiring much of the year since then - a little more than 84% of all jobs for 2025
Americans Are the Ones Paying for Tariffs, Study Finds
New research contradicts President Trump’s claim that foreigners are footing the bill.
www.wsj.com
January 19, 2026 at 8:42 PM
New study affirms what all other studies show. Importers and consumers, not foreign exporters bore the brunt of tariffs.
Spike in uncertainty in April 2025 during the tariff tantrum showed up as paralysis in hiring much of the year since then - a little more than 84% of all jobs for 2025
Spike in uncertainty in April 2025 during the tariff tantrum showed up as paralysis in hiring much of the year since then - a little more than 84% of all jobs for 2025
Data disruptions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is down ~ 30% on staffing incl leadership roles. That has left them scrambled post shutdown to try to do more w/less, inc key regional survey offices closed. That has meant that tough decisions on filling gaps in the data had to be made.
January 18, 2026 at 9:57 PM
Data disruptions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is down ~ 30% on staffing incl leadership roles. That has left them scrambled post shutdown to try to do more w/less, inc key regional survey offices closed. That has meant that tough decisions on filling gaps in the data had to be made.
Notable to remember, if the inflation data is being understated due to problems following government shutdown, the real (inflation-adjusted growth) could be overstated in 4Q.
January 13, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Notable to remember, if the inflation data is being understated due to problems following government shutdown, the real (inflation-adjusted growth) could be overstated in 4Q.