Dan Silverman
@dmsilverman.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology (CMIST)
Ohio State PhD. International Security, Political Psychology, Middle East Politics
Opinions my own, don’t reflect employer, etc.
Ohio State PhD. International Security, Political Psychology, Middle East Politics
Opinions my own, don’t reflect employer, etc.
An earlier quote from him is also striking, where he talks about the crisis in (explicitly non-material) terms of dignity and self-respect
In IR we know that groups are often willing to bear more costs and resist more forcefully when they feel they’re being humiliated and disrespected
In IR we know that groups are often willing to bear more costs and resist more forcefully when they feel they’re being humiliated and disrespected
January 20, 2026 at 6:24 PM
An earlier quote from him is also striking, where he talks about the crisis in (explicitly non-material) terms of dignity and self-respect
In IR we know that groups are often willing to bear more costs and resist more forcefully when they feel they’re being humiliated and disrespected
In IR we know that groups are often willing to bear more costs and resist more forcefully when they feel they’re being humiliated and disrespected
Damn, that’s quite a quote from Belgium’s PM Bart De Wever when asked about his upcoming meeting with Trump
January 20, 2026 at 6:17 PM
Damn, that’s quite a quote from Belgium’s PM Bart De Wever when asked about his upcoming meeting with Trump
Meanwhile, look at their Wikipedia entry right now @yasharali.bsky.social
Possible Iranian cyber activity?
Possible Iranian cyber activity?
January 19, 2026 at 11:37 PM
Meanwhile, look at their Wikipedia entry right now @yasharali.bsky.social
Possible Iranian cyber activity?
Possible Iranian cyber activity?
I don’t think America should invade Europe, actually
January 19, 2026 at 11:10 PM
I don’t think America should invade Europe, actually
2) Buried in here is something I’ve seen elsewhere — reports that the regime used Iraqi Hashd militias to crush protests
I don’t think that’s gotten enough attention: think about what it says about the regime and its relationship to society that it IMPORTED foreign militias to kill its own people
I don’t think that’s gotten enough attention: think about what it says about the regime and its relationship to society that it IMPORTED foreign militias to kill its own people
January 18, 2026 at 12:57 PM
2) Buried in here is something I’ve seen elsewhere — reports that the regime used Iraqi Hashd militias to crush protests
I don’t think that’s gotten enough attention: think about what it says about the regime and its relationship to society that it IMPORTED foreign militias to kill its own people
I don’t think that’s gotten enough attention: think about what it says about the regime and its relationship to society that it IMPORTED foreign militias to kill its own people
A couple other notable bits here
1) Khamenei’s rhetoric portraying the protesters as ”U.S. foot soldiers” who were heavily armed.
These are the 2 of the classic ways dictators try to smear protests: claim they’re (1) foreign, and (2) violent
Did U.S. involvement help Khamenei do so? = the concern
1) Khamenei’s rhetoric portraying the protesters as ”U.S. foot soldiers” who were heavily armed.
These are the 2 of the classic ways dictators try to smear protests: claim they’re (1) foreign, and (2) violent
Did U.S. involvement help Khamenei do so? = the concern
January 18, 2026 at 12:50 PM
A couple other notable bits here
1) Khamenei’s rhetoric portraying the protesters as ”U.S. foot soldiers” who were heavily armed.
These are the 2 of the classic ways dictators try to smear protests: claim they’re (1) foreign, and (2) violent
Did U.S. involvement help Khamenei do so? = the concern
1) Khamenei’s rhetoric portraying the protesters as ”U.S. foot soldiers” who were heavily armed.
These are the 2 of the classic ways dictators try to smear protests: claim they’re (1) foreign, and (2) violent
Did U.S. involvement help Khamenei do so? = the concern
“Did the Jews cause this natural disaster, or not?” is now apparently a legitimate topic for a news segment on OAN, starring Matt Gaetz
January 17, 2026 at 4:24 AM
“Did the Jews cause this natural disaster, or not?” is now apparently a legitimate topic for a news segment on OAN, starring Matt Gaetz
After urging Iranians to protest and promising them support, Trump now says he isn‘t attacking Iran since the government told him they’ll be nice
January 15, 2026 at 3:02 PM
After urging Iranians to protest and promising them support, Trump now says he isn‘t attacking Iran since the government told him they’ll be nice
Iranians are doing flag discourse. Guess we’re not the only ones
January 13, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Iranians are doing flag discourse. Guess we’re not the only ones
Ackman, claiming he's happy to give but the donation window is closed
January 12, 2026 at 5:05 AM
Ackman, claiming he's happy to give but the donation window is closed
Unbelievable
Ackman admits he donated 10k to Jonathan Ross's gofundme, then says he "intended" to do the same for Renee Good's family but the fundraiser was already closed
Ackman admits he donated 10k to Jonathan Ross's gofundme, then says he "intended" to do the same for Renee Good's family but the fundraiser was already closed
January 12, 2026 at 5:02 AM
Unbelievable
Ackman admits he donated 10k to Jonathan Ross's gofundme, then says he "intended" to do the same for Renee Good's family but the fundraiser was already closed
Ackman admits he donated 10k to Jonathan Ross's gofundme, then says he "intended" to do the same for Renee Good's family but the fundraiser was already closed
Striking quote from France’s FM at the end of this piece on Greenland
Let’s just say I hope he’s right that it’s not the 19th C anymore…
Let’s just say I hope he’s right that it’s not the 19th C anymore…
January 10, 2026 at 8:33 PM
Striking quote from France’s FM at the end of this piece on Greenland
Let’s just say I hope he’s right that it’s not the 19th C anymore…
Let’s just say I hope he’s right that it’s not the 19th C anymore…
Even former editors appalled
January 9, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Even former editors appalled
“X treats these matters seriously and acts promptly.”
She sounds like a corporate lobbyist
She sounds like a corporate lobbyist
January 9, 2026 at 12:48 PM
“X treats these matters seriously and acts promptly.”
She sounds like a corporate lobbyist
She sounds like a corporate lobbyist
RIP Renee Nicole Good (1988-2026)
January 9, 2026 at 4:00 AM
RIP Renee Nicole Good (1988-2026)
After the Minnesota shooting, does this mean the United States of America is going to liberate us?
January 8, 2026 at 11:38 PM
After the Minnesota shooting, does this mean the United States of America is going to liberate us?
This is not just logical and intuitive but well supported by research
Manekin and Mitts (2021) show that the public is more willing to accept the use of deadly force vs peaceful protesters if they’re from an ethnic minority group
Manekin and Mitts (2021) show that the public is more willing to accept the use of deadly force vs peaceful protesters if they’re from an ethnic minority group
January 8, 2026 at 3:20 AM
This is not just logical and intuitive but well supported by research
Manekin and Mitts (2021) show that the public is more willing to accept the use of deadly force vs peaceful protesters if they’re from an ethnic minority group
Manekin and Mitts (2021) show that the public is more willing to accept the use of deadly force vs peaceful protesters if they’re from an ethnic minority group
Wow. This is from a 2013 internally commissioned research report on CBP’s use of deadly force
It seems CBP/ICE has had a culture of blocking and shooting at vehicles for quite some time now
It seems CBP/ICE has had a culture of blocking and shooting at vehicles for quite some time now
January 8, 2026 at 2:06 AM
Wow. This is from a 2013 internally commissioned research report on CBP’s use of deadly force
It seems CBP/ICE has had a culture of blocking and shooting at vehicles for quite some time now
It seems CBP/ICE has had a culture of blocking and shooting at vehicles for quite some time now
And the 4th I think is really insightful:
That this operation will undermine international diplomacy and trust in diplomatic immunity.
World leaders — especially of weaker rivals and opponents — will be more leary of setting foot on U.S. soil, and even attending the UN
That this operation will undermine international diplomacy and trust in diplomatic immunity.
World leaders — especially of weaker rivals and opponents — will be more leary of setting foot on U.S. soil, and even attending the UN
January 6, 2026 at 3:30 AM
And the 4th I think is really insightful:
That this operation will undermine international diplomacy and trust in diplomatic immunity.
World leaders — especially of weaker rivals and opponents — will be more leary of setting foot on U.S. soil, and even attending the UN
That this operation will undermine international diplomacy and trust in diplomatic immunity.
World leaders — especially of weaker rivals and opponents — will be more leary of setting foot on U.S. soil, and even attending the UN
See, this is a classic bargaining theory of war problem.
Per Fearon 1995 (yes I’m going there), if you can get the same result from a pre-war deal as from fighting, why would you possibly fight — and absorb the negative utility of conflict ($, risk, etc)?
Fearon’s answer has to essentially…
Per Fearon 1995 (yes I’m going there), if you can get the same result from a pre-war deal as from fighting, why would you possibly fight — and absorb the negative utility of conflict ($, risk, etc)?
Fearon’s answer has to essentially…
January 4, 2026 at 3:02 AM
See, this is a classic bargaining theory of war problem.
Per Fearon 1995 (yes I’m going there), if you can get the same result from a pre-war deal as from fighting, why would you possibly fight — and absorb the negative utility of conflict ($, risk, etc)?
Fearon’s answer has to essentially…
Per Fearon 1995 (yes I’m going there), if you can get the same result from a pre-war deal as from fighting, why would you possibly fight — and absorb the negative utility of conflict ($, risk, etc)?
Fearon’s answer has to essentially…