Dan Silverman
@dmsilverman.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology (CMIST)
Ohio State PhD. International Security, Political Psychology, Middle East Politics
Opinions my own, don’t reflect employer, etc.
Ohio State PhD. International Security, Political Psychology, Middle East Politics
Opinions my own, don’t reflect employer, etc.
Pinned
Dan Silverman
@dmsilverman.bsky.social
· Nov 22
🚨Publication day — my first book is out! “Seeing is Disbelieving: Why People Believe Misinformation in War, and When They Know Better” is a deep dive into factual misinformation in modern war and conflict, and why people do and don’t believe it. @cambridgeup.bsky.social
cambridge.org/9781009523585
cambridge.org/9781009523585
“Did the Jews cause this natural disaster, or not?” is now apparently a legitimate topic for a news segment on OAN, starring Matt Gaetz
January 17, 2026 at 4:24 AM
“Did the Jews cause this natural disaster, or not?” is now apparently a legitimate topic for a news segment on OAN, starring Matt Gaetz
Great. Sounds like another war may be brewing
Exclusive | U.S. Officials Concerned Syria, Backed by Turkey, Will Expand Operation Against Kurds
The Kurdish region remains a major obstacle to President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s consolidation of control over Syria.
www.wsj.com
January 17, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Great. Sounds like another war may be brewing
Reposted by Dan Silverman
my new piece in FP: The US keeps telling people to rise up against their regimes, then leaving them to die. Hungary, Iraq, Syria...now Iran? I try to offer an explanation for this very consistent pattern. (gift link) foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...
A Long History of Betrayal
Why Washington keeps encouraging foreign uprisings—and then walking away.
foreignpolicy.com
January 16, 2026 at 10:36 PM
my new piece in FP: The US keeps telling people to rise up against their regimes, then leaving them to die. Hungary, Iraq, Syria...now Iran? I try to offer an explanation for this very consistent pattern. (gift link) foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...
Reposted by Dan Silverman
Democratic politicians facing frivolous criminal investigations from Trump:
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
Two days ago it was Elissa Slotkin. Last week it was Jerome Powell. Before that, Mark Kelly. Weaponizing the justice system against your opponents is an authoritarian tactic.
The only person not being investigated for the shooting of Renee Good is the federal agent who shot her.
The only person not being investigated for the shooting of Renee Good is the federal agent who shot her.
Breaking news: The Justice Department has issued subpoenas for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey as part of an investigation alleging that they are impeding federal law enforcement officers’ abilities to do their jobs in the state.
January 17, 2026 at 12:28 AM
Democratic politicians facing frivolous criminal investigations from Trump:
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
The United States of America in 2026, ladies and gentlemen
DELETED
After lying about this baby they gassed and almost killed in their own neighborhood, DHS deleted their post
After lying about this baby they gassed and almost killed in their own neighborhood, DHS deleted their post
January 16, 2026 at 10:55 PM
The United States of America in 2026, ladies and gentlemen
Well, at least they got the perpetrator of this monstrous double homicide right in one of the liveliest areas of Columbus Ohio. Jealous ex-husband
January 16, 2026 at 10:48 PM
Well, at least they got the perpetrator of this monstrous double homicide right in one of the liveliest areas of Columbus Ohio. Jealous ex-husband
Reposted by Dan Silverman
pretty sure he meant the other thing, grok, but very cool that those are your two things
January 16, 2026 at 4:55 PM
pretty sure he meant the other thing, grok, but very cool that those are your two things
After urging Iranians to protest and promising them support, Trump now says he isn‘t attacking Iran since the government told him they’ll be nice
January 15, 2026 at 3:02 PM
After urging Iranians to protest and promising them support, Trump now says he isn‘t attacking Iran since the government told him they’ll be nice
Reposted by Dan Silverman
US higher education was a crown jewel, generating knowledge, wealth, prestige, and power unrivaled by anyone.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
Chinese Universities Surge in Global Rankings as U.S. Schools Slip
www.nytimes.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:01 PM
US higher education was a crown jewel, generating knowledge, wealth, prestige, and power unrivaled by anyone.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
It’s so fun that I wrote a book on how personal experience/proximity to events is the key to accurate beliefs in armed conflicts, and how we need to amplify people with it — and now I get to think about how that applies to the U.S.!
“There’s a crisis in an American city. We could ask the people there how they feel about it or we can interview some people awash in propaganda with no first hand understanding of anything. Let’s do that second thing.”
January 15, 2026 at 2:43 PM
It’s so fun that I wrote a book on how personal experience/proximity to events is the key to accurate beliefs in armed conflicts, and how we need to amplify people with it — and now I get to think about how that applies to the U.S.!
This is where I’m at broadly too
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
I’m not a leftist. I’m not DSA. I’m not someone who is mad at the existence of moderate Dems.
I don’t think this has to be done the way the loudest activists want it done. But as a matter of policy and political philosophy, it’s just absurd to accept that ICE can’t be touched.
I don’t think this has to be done the way the loudest activists want it done. But as a matter of policy and political philosophy, it’s just absurd to accept that ICE can’t be touched.
January 15, 2026 at 4:05 AM
This is where I’m at broadly too
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
Reposted by Dan Silverman
"Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea for the U.S. to use military force to take possession of Greenland from Denmark?"
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
January 14, 2026 at 7:03 PM
"Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea for the U.S. to use military force to take possession of Greenland from Denmark?"
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
Kind of amazing someone like Nate Silver has spent so much time writing about things like “Blueskyism” and “Heather Cox Richardsonism” rather than, say, “Stephen Millerism” — despite the latter, yanno, militarizing America’s streets and threatening to invade chunks of Europe.
Stephen Miller Torched Over His ‘Utterly Chilling’ Message To ICE Officers
Critics slammed the top Trump official’s remarks as a “greenlight for abuse.
Critics slammed the top Trump official’s remarks as a “greenlight for abuse.
Stephen Miller Torched Over ‘Utterly Chilling’ Message To ICE Officers
Critics slammed the top Trump official’s remarks as a “greenlight for abuse.”
www.huffpost.com
January 14, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Kind of amazing someone like Nate Silver has spent so much time writing about things like “Blueskyism” and “Heather Cox Richardsonism” rather than, say, “Stephen Millerism” — despite the latter, yanno, militarizing America’s streets and threatening to invade chunks of Europe.
Grateful to Thomas Colley at King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social for the very thoughtful and generous book review ⬇️
"With so much written on disinformation and misinformation over the past decade, original research on these topics has become rare. But @dmsilverman.bsky.social “Seeing Is Disbelieving" is genuinely novel..."
Review of 'Seeing Is Disbelieving' in @lawfaremedia.org
https://cup.org/4qDjN80
Review of 'Seeing Is Disbelieving' in @lawfaremedia.org
https://cup.org/4qDjN80
When Misinformation Means the Difference Between Life and Death
A Review of Daniel Silverman, “Seeing Is Disbelieving: Why People Believe Misinformation in War, and When They Know Better” (Cambridge University Press, 2024).
cup.org
January 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Grateful to Thomas Colley at King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social for the very thoughtful and generous book review ⬇️
Do we really think a World Cup is happening here as usual this summer? Teams and fans from 48 countries including many in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, MENA are showing up? No one boycotting?
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
The most effective leverage the world has against this nonsensical pretext to ban people from the US is for World Cup fans to refuse to come here, although that is probably an impossible ask for rabid fans.
January 14, 2026 at 6:15 PM
Do we really think a World Cup is happening here as usual this summer? Teams and fans from 48 countries including many in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, MENA are showing up? No one boycotting?
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
Reposted by Dan Silverman
They don’t know who they’re taking because:
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
January 14, 2026 at 2:33 PM
They don’t know who they’re taking because:
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
Reposted by Dan Silverman
Having seen several abductions up close, it is really hard to convey how much the thing they’re doing is roaming in military convoys until they see someone who is alone and isn’t white, and then jumping out in large numbers, pulling them into a van, and screeching off, all in 90 seconds or so.
"“They specifically asked me if I knew where the Hmong families lived on my street & in the neighborhood.” Lugert-Thom responded, “I don’t know anything about that” & she said they then asked, “Well, what about the Asian families?”"
"“I was a bit shaken & a bit shocked of what I was asked to do.”"
"“I was a bit shaken & a bit shocked of what I was asked to do.”"
A St. Paul resident says federal officers knocked on her door and asked her to identify Hmong and Asian households in her North End neighborhood last week.
January 14, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Having seen several abductions up close, it is really hard to convey how much the thing they’re doing is roaming in military convoys until they see someone who is alone and isn’t white, and then jumping out in large numbers, pulling them into a van, and screeching off, all in 90 seconds or so.
ICE’s message to its agents: “Do whatever the f*%# you want. There are no limits on your power. Anyone in your way is a criminal obstructor. You are the law.”
January 14, 2026 at 1:24 PM
ICE’s message to its agents: “Do whatever the f*%# you want. There are no limits on your power. Anyone in your way is a criminal obstructor. You are the law.”
Reposted by Dan Silverman
Who will be the first member of Congress to introduce legislation named after Renee Good that abolishes DHS?
January 7, 2026 at 10:56 PM
Who will be the first member of Congress to introduce legislation named after Renee Good that abolishes DHS?
So how many *known* antisemitic white nationalists or groypers does this make that are employed by the admin in notable roles?
At minimum:
-ICE assistant chief counsel James Rodden
-GSA acting general counsel Paul Ingrassia
-senior Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson
At minimum:
-ICE assistant chief counsel James Rodden
-GSA acting general counsel Paul Ingrassia
-senior Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson
There you have it; the Trump admin allows ICE lawyer James Rodden to stay on the job. His personal social media account praised Hitler, supported white nationalism, and said that America started going downhill the day that Lincoln was elected.
BREAKING: James Rodden, an ICE prosecutor who the Observer identified last year as the operator of an X account that posted “America is a White nation," “‘Migrants’ are all criminals,” and apparent praise of Adolf Hitler, appeared to be back at work Tuesday.
www.texasobserver.org/ice-prosecut...
www.texasobserver.org/ice-prosecut...
January 14, 2026 at 2:45 AM
So how many *known* antisemitic white nationalists or groypers does this make that are employed by the admin in notable roles?
At minimum:
-ICE assistant chief counsel James Rodden
-GSA acting general counsel Paul Ingrassia
-senior Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson
At minimum:
-ICE assistant chief counsel James Rodden
-GSA acting general counsel Paul Ingrassia
-senior Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson
No PA and no MI (at least statewide). Once again
They’re scared of punishing the big blue-tinged swing states
They’re scared of punishing the big blue-tinged swing states
Here's the full list, according to a DOJ press release dated August.
In effect, every blue state except for Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, and Massachusetts (all except HI had Republican statewide electeds at some point since 2018) will have their funding withheld:
www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justi...
In effect, every blue state except for Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, and Massachusetts (all except HI had Republican statewide electeds at some point since 2018) will have their funding withheld:
www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justi...
January 14, 2026 at 1:46 AM
No PA and no MI (at least statewide). Once again
They’re scared of punishing the big blue-tinged swing states
They’re scared of punishing the big blue-tinged swing states
Iranians are doing flag discourse. Guess we’re not the only ones
January 13, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Iranians are doing flag discourse. Guess we’re not the only ones
Reposted by Dan Silverman
Under Trump's watch, a DHS agent shot a protestor in the face with a non-lethal round at close range, fractured his skull, and then dragged him around as he choked and bled. He is now permanently blind in his left eye.
Anti-ICE protester blinded by federal agent during demonstration in Santa Ana, family says
A young protester narrowly avoided being killed but was left permanently blind after a Department of Homeland Security agent fired a nonlethal round at close range during a Santa Ana protest last week...
www.latimes.com
January 13, 2026 at 5:32 PM
Under Trump's watch, a DHS agent shot a protestor in the face with a non-lethal round at close range, fractured his skull, and then dragged him around as he choked and bled. He is now permanently blind in his left eye.
Holy fucking hell
Over 12,000 feared dead after Iran protests, as video shows bodies lined up at morgue
Information trickling out of Iran suggests a far deadlier crackdown on protesters than previously reported.
www.cbsnews.com
January 13, 2026 at 8:43 PM
Holy fucking hell
Big, if true
Pentagon bought device through undercover operation some investigators suspect is linked to Havana Syndrome | CNN Politics
The Defense Department has spent more than a year testing a device purchased in an undercover operation that some investigators think could be the cause of a series of mysterious ailments impacting sp...
www.cnn.com
January 13, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Big, if true