Dan Silverman
@dmsilverman.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology (CMIST)
Ohio State PhD. International Security, Political Psychology, Middle East Politics
Opinions my own, don’t reflect employer, etc.
Ohio State PhD. International Security, Political Psychology, Middle East Politics
Opinions my own, don’t reflect employer, etc.
Pinned
Dan Silverman
@dmsilverman.bsky.social
· Nov 22
🚨Publication day — my first book is out! “Seeing is Disbelieving: Why People Believe Misinformation in War, and When They Know Better” is a deep dive into factual misinformation in modern war and conflict, and why people do and don’t believe it. @cambridgeup.bsky.social
cambridge.org/9781009523585
cambridge.org/9781009523585
Heart-wrenching read
And it‘s hard to know whether 16.5-18k dead is accurate, but this is another data point suggesting the death toll is likely many thousands
And it‘s hard to know whether 16.5-18k dead is accurate, but this is another data point suggesting the death toll is likely many thousands
“Figures compiled by staff in 8 major eye hospitals and 16 emergency departments across [Iran] reveal that at least 16,500-18,000 people have been killed and 330,000 to 360,000 injured…At least 700 to 1,000 people have lost an eye.”
www.thetimes.com/world/middle...
www.thetimes.com/world/middle...
Iran report says 16,500 dead in ‘genocide under digital darkness’
Witnesses tell of the brutality inflicted on those taking part in anti-regime protests
www.thetimes.com
January 18, 2026 at 12:40 PM
Heart-wrenching read
And it‘s hard to know whether 16.5-18k dead is accurate, but this is another data point suggesting the death toll is likely many thousands
And it‘s hard to know whether 16.5-18k dead is accurate, but this is another data point suggesting the death toll is likely many thousands
Reposted by Dan Silverman
A terrible day.
The U.S. government vs. the free world.
The U.S. government vs. the free world.
January 17, 2026 at 11:54 PM
A terrible day.
The U.S. government vs. the free world.
The U.S. government vs. the free world.
Reposted by Dan Silverman
The level of organization here is impressive.
I hope someone in this Minneapolis/St. Paul effort is writing down a field manual of best practices - what the military would call doctrine - so that when ICE moves on, other places can replicate the tactics that work and iterate on them.
I hope someone in this Minneapolis/St. Paul effort is writing down a field manual of best practices - what the military would call doctrine - so that when ICE moves on, other places can replicate the tactics that work and iterate on them.
We have ~15 separate radio dispatches, one for each neighborhood, and dozens more for the suburbs/Saint Paul. Each dispatch/monitoring channel contains somewhere between 500 and 2000 people. At any given time there are probably a dozen mobile patrols and 100 on-foot observers in each neighborhood.
Does Minneapolis have a radio dispatch set up for the people who are following ICE? That's brilliant.
January 18, 2026 at 3:25 AM
The level of organization here is impressive.
I hope someone in this Minneapolis/St. Paul effort is writing down a field manual of best practices - what the military would call doctrine - so that when ICE moves on, other places can replicate the tactics that work and iterate on them.
I hope someone in this Minneapolis/St. Paul effort is writing down a field manual of best practices - what the military would call doctrine - so that when ICE moves on, other places can replicate the tactics that work and iterate on them.
We all agree that this will be a movie one day, right
I guess the question is who will play Stancil
I guess the question is who will play Stancil
You guys have no idea how good this car is for what we’re doing. You can lurk in alleys or behind parked SUVs. It drives like a go-cart. You’re three feet off the ground with exceptional visibility so I can pull snap u-turns or cut behind convoys
January 18, 2026 at 2:17 AM
We all agree that this will be a movie one day, right
I guess the question is who will play Stancil
I guess the question is who will play Stancil
Reposted by Dan Silverman
If a Minnesotan says to you, "I don't plan to let you do that," run.
January 17, 2026 at 11:47 PM
If a Minnesotan says to you, "I don't plan to let you do that," run.
What a game
Overtime.
January 18, 2026 at 12:45 AM
What a game
“Did the Jews cause this natural disaster, or not?” is now apparently a legitimate topic for a news segment on OAN, starring Matt Gaetz
January 17, 2026 at 4:24 AM
“Did the Jews cause this natural disaster, or not?” is now apparently a legitimate topic for a news segment on OAN, starring Matt Gaetz
Great. Sounds like another war may be brewing
Exclusive | U.S. Officials Concerned Syria, Backed by Turkey, Will Expand Operation Against Kurds
The Kurdish region remains a major obstacle to President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s consolidation of control over Syria.
www.wsj.com
January 17, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Great. Sounds like another war may be brewing
Reposted by Dan Silverman
my new piece in FP: The US keeps telling people to rise up against their regimes, then leaving them to die. Hungary, Iraq, Syria...now Iran? I try to offer an explanation for this very consistent pattern. (gift link) foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...
A Long History of Betrayal
Why Washington keeps encouraging foreign uprisings—and then walking away.
foreignpolicy.com
January 16, 2026 at 10:36 PM
my new piece in FP: The US keeps telling people to rise up against their regimes, then leaving them to die. Hungary, Iraq, Syria...now Iran? I try to offer an explanation for this very consistent pattern. (gift link) foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/t...
Reposted by Dan Silverman
Democratic politicians facing frivolous criminal investigations from Trump:
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
Two days ago it was Elissa Slotkin. Last week it was Jerome Powell. Before that, Mark Kelly. Weaponizing the justice system against your opponents is an authoritarian tactic.
The only person not being investigated for the shooting of Renee Good is the federal agent who shot her.
The only person not being investigated for the shooting of Renee Good is the federal agent who shot her.
Breaking news: The Justice Department has issued subpoenas for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey as part of an investigation alleging that they are impeding federal law enforcement officers’ abilities to do their jobs in the state.
January 17, 2026 at 12:28 AM
Democratic politicians facing frivolous criminal investigations from Trump:
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
Kat Abughazaleh
Elissa Slotkin
Jason Crow
Tim Walz
Jacob Frey
Letitia James
Lisa Cook
Mark Kelly
Eric Swalwell
Adam Schiff
The United States of America in 2026, ladies and gentlemen
DELETED
After lying about this baby they gassed and almost killed in their own neighborhood, DHS deleted their post
After lying about this baby they gassed and almost killed in their own neighborhood, DHS deleted their post
January 16, 2026 at 10:55 PM
The United States of America in 2026, ladies and gentlemen
Well, at least they got the perpetrator of this monstrous double homicide right in one of the liveliest areas of Columbus Ohio. Jealous ex-husband
January 16, 2026 at 10:48 PM
Well, at least they got the perpetrator of this monstrous double homicide right in one of the liveliest areas of Columbus Ohio. Jealous ex-husband
Reposted by Dan Silverman
pretty sure he meant the other thing, grok, but very cool that those are your two things
January 16, 2026 at 4:55 PM
pretty sure he meant the other thing, grok, but very cool that those are your two things
After urging Iranians to protest and promising them support, Trump now says he isn‘t attacking Iran since the government told him they’ll be nice
January 15, 2026 at 3:02 PM
After urging Iranians to protest and promising them support, Trump now says he isn‘t attacking Iran since the government told him they’ll be nice
Reposted by Dan Silverman
US higher education was a crown jewel, generating knowledge, wealth, prestige, and power unrivaled by anyone.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
Chinese Universities Surge in Global Rankings as U.S. Schools Slip
www.nytimes.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:01 PM
US higher education was a crown jewel, generating knowledge, wealth, prestige, and power unrivaled by anyone.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
And the US is throwing it away, because Americans elected a govt ideologically opposed to truth, science, merit, and racial/gender equality, preferring to weaken the country to reduce that.
It’s so fun that I wrote a book on how personal experience/proximity to events is the key to accurate beliefs in armed conflicts, and how we need to amplify people with it — and now I get to think about how that applies to the U.S.!
“There’s a crisis in an American city. We could ask the people there how they feel about it or we can interview some people awash in propaganda with no first hand understanding of anything. Let’s do that second thing.”
January 15, 2026 at 2:43 PM
It’s so fun that I wrote a book on how personal experience/proximity to events is the key to accurate beliefs in armed conflicts, and how we need to amplify people with it — and now I get to think about how that applies to the U.S.!
This is where I’m at broadly too
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
I’m not a leftist. I’m not DSA. I’m not someone who is mad at the existence of moderate Dems.
I don’t think this has to be done the way the loudest activists want it done. But as a matter of policy and political philosophy, it’s just absurd to accept that ICE can’t be touched.
I don’t think this has to be done the way the loudest activists want it done. But as a matter of policy and political philosophy, it’s just absurd to accept that ICE can’t be touched.
January 15, 2026 at 4:05 AM
This is where I’m at broadly too
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
My first instinct is often to reform rather than eliminate institutions
But I don’t see why you’d want to retain an institution that will have spent years recruiting thousands of nativist bullies and engaging in a war essentially against American society
Reposted by Dan Silverman
"Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea for the U.S. to use military force to take possession of Greenland from Denmark?"
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
January 14, 2026 at 7:03 PM
"Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea for the U.S. to use military force to take possession of Greenland from Denmark?"
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
Good idea: 4%
Bad idea: 71%
(Ipsos)
4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.
Kind of amazing someone like Nate Silver has spent so much time writing about things like “Blueskyism” and “Heather Cox Richardsonism” rather than, say, “Stephen Millerism” — despite the latter, yanno, militarizing America’s streets and threatening to invade chunks of Europe.
Stephen Miller Torched Over His ‘Utterly Chilling’ Message To ICE Officers
Critics slammed the top Trump official’s remarks as a “greenlight for abuse.
Critics slammed the top Trump official’s remarks as a “greenlight for abuse.
Stephen Miller Torched Over ‘Utterly Chilling’ Message To ICE Officers
Critics slammed the top Trump official’s remarks as a “greenlight for abuse.”
www.huffpost.com
January 14, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Kind of amazing someone like Nate Silver has spent so much time writing about things like “Blueskyism” and “Heather Cox Richardsonism” rather than, say, “Stephen Millerism” — despite the latter, yanno, militarizing America’s streets and threatening to invade chunks of Europe.
Grateful to Thomas Colley at King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social for the very thoughtful and generous book review ⬇️
"With so much written on disinformation and misinformation over the past decade, original research on these topics has become rare. But @dmsilverman.bsky.social “Seeing Is Disbelieving" is genuinely novel..."
Review of 'Seeing Is Disbelieving' in @lawfaremedia.org
https://cup.org/4qDjN80
Review of 'Seeing Is Disbelieving' in @lawfaremedia.org
https://cup.org/4qDjN80
When Misinformation Means the Difference Between Life and Death
A Review of Daniel Silverman, “Seeing Is Disbelieving: Why People Believe Misinformation in War, and When They Know Better” (Cambridge University Press, 2024).
cup.org
January 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Grateful to Thomas Colley at King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social for the very thoughtful and generous book review ⬇️
Do we really think a World Cup is happening here as usual this summer? Teams and fans from 48 countries including many in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, MENA are showing up? No one boycotting?
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
The most effective leverage the world has against this nonsensical pretext to ban people from the US is for World Cup fans to refuse to come here, although that is probably an impossible ask for rabid fans.
January 14, 2026 at 6:15 PM
Do we really think a World Cup is happening here as usual this summer? Teams and fans from 48 countries including many in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, MENA are showing up? No one boycotting?
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
Some of the games are supposed to be in places like LA which have been obviously huge ICE targets
Reposted by Dan Silverman
They don’t know who they’re taking because:
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
January 14, 2026 at 2:33 PM
They don’t know who they’re taking because:
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
-they don’t talk to them
-they’re random pedestrians
It is literally indistinguishable from a kidnapping when you see it, except there are so many of them, and they are more heavily armed and armored than any kidnapper would ever be.
Reposted by Dan Silverman
Having seen several abductions up close, it is really hard to convey how much the thing they’re doing is roaming in military convoys until they see someone who is alone and isn’t white, and then jumping out in large numbers, pulling them into a van, and screeching off, all in 90 seconds or so.
"“They specifically asked me if I knew where the Hmong families lived on my street & in the neighborhood.” Lugert-Thom responded, “I don’t know anything about that” & she said they then asked, “Well, what about the Asian families?”"
"“I was a bit shaken & a bit shocked of what I was asked to do.”"
"“I was a bit shaken & a bit shocked of what I was asked to do.”"
A St. Paul resident says federal officers knocked on her door and asked her to identify Hmong and Asian households in her North End neighborhood last week.
January 14, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Having seen several abductions up close, it is really hard to convey how much the thing they’re doing is roaming in military convoys until they see someone who is alone and isn’t white, and then jumping out in large numbers, pulling them into a van, and screeching off, all in 90 seconds or so.
ICE’s message to its agents: “Do whatever the f*%# you want. There are no limits on your power. Anyone in your way is a criminal obstructor. You are the law.”
January 14, 2026 at 1:24 PM
ICE’s message to its agents: “Do whatever the f*%# you want. There are no limits on your power. Anyone in your way is a criminal obstructor. You are the law.”