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Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 1d

A Wargame to Take #Taiwan, from China’s Perspective
warontherocks.com/2025/10/a-wa... #China

A Wargame to Take Taiwan, from China’s Perspective

In August 2025, 25 international experts gathered at Syracuse University to do something unusual: plan China's invasion of Taiwan. For two days,

warontherocks.com

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Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 22h

President #Macron appears to be more isolated than ever.
www.rfi.fr/en/france/20... #France #politics

As Macronists turn their backs on the president, left and right struggle to unite

Political journalists from RFI's French service examine where influential figures from across the political spectrum stand, ahead of the 8 October deadline given to outgoing prime minister Sébastien…

www.rfi.fr

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Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 1d

My main problem with this is not so much the dominance of quantitative methods in “top-20” journals but rather the dominance of the exclusive use of quantitative methods — in many cases causality could and should have been established by a (nested) qualitative study. *

Alexia Katsanidou @alexiakatsanidou.bsky.social · 1d

Great paper on the state of political science osf.io/preprints/os... by @guygrossman.bsky.social et. al. We have become more diverse, more quantitative, and more collaborative.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 1d

Fine blog on Czech election. Big win for Babiš as in 2017 pyrrhic.

But am left wondering after cost-of-living dominated campaign, if liberal–illiberal cultural divide so key. And if shapeshifting pragmatist AB really readable in classic left/right,lib/con terms?

blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...

The 2025 Czech election – Andrej Babiš’s Pyrrhic victory

Andrej Babiš’s ANO won the 2025 Czech election on 3–4 October. Yet as Jan Rovny explains, Babiš will find it challenging to form a stable government.

blogs.lse.ac.uk

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Jo Wolff @jowolff.bsky.social · 1d

Really I should have been born in the seventeenth century, when random speling was normal.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 2d

Usually disadvantages smaller parties, but this time they have seats in in line with votes. Babis’s ANO somewhat overrepresented and Together under-represented. I would guess Babis benefited from large vote and some regional concentration.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 2d

There are regional disparities in where parties have their votes as well as disparities introduced by the uneven size of regional electoral district which are based on administrative units.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 3d

Vynikající analýza politologa Jakuba Lyska – zatím nejlepší z rychlých povolebních podcastů. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/5...

Češi rozhodli a Babiš si zpívá

Podcast Episode · 5:59 · 05/10/2025 · 27m

podcasts.apple.com

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Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 3d

Well it has happened.
The leadership of the Conservative&Unionist Party is advocating leaving the ECHR. Not reforming it, or working with other members to alter any rules.
Leave it. Like Putin’s Russia.
I can’t help wondering what those Tories who are rightly proud of 🇬🇧’s support for 🇺🇦 are thinking.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Meanwhile the knives are likely to be out for Social Democrat leader Jan Maláčová whose decision to ally her declining party with the Communists in Enough! - after much wavering - has proved divisive and electorally a total failure.

Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Czech Communist leader Kateřina Konečná has conceded that the Communist-led Enough! bloc won’t make it into parliament and speedily denounced Babiš as offering “a right-wing government with a human face”

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Czech Communist leader Kateřina Konečná has conceded that the Communist-led Enough! bloc won’t make it into parliament and speedily denounced Babiš as offering “a right-wing government with a human face”

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

TLDR: Expect a Babiš-Motorist government with small majority or a strong minority administration reluctantly enabled by opposition parties as the less evil.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Communist-led Enough grouping steadily on 4.5%. They don’t look likely to make into Parliament as bigger cities will not pick up that many votes in big urban area. I expected them to squeeze over 5% threshold. Few people including Babiš will mourn their absence.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Pirates polling solidly - currently around 8%. Should creep up to around 10% when big cities counted.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Together bloc of PM Fiala on around 20% which is likely to creep up as results of urban centres come. Respectable showing, slightly better than expectations.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Far right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) seem to have underperformed relative to expectations, well below 10%, likely losing votes to ANO and perhaps Motorists.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

Motorists a big surprise easily clearing 5% threshold and now on 8-9%. Likely partner in a Babiš government. Analysts noticed a late uptick in support as they campaigned heavily at the end, but many - including me - wrote them off.

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 4d

With just under half of electoral precincts in Czechia counted, it looks like Andrej Babis’s ANO movement that won big. Now on 38% of votes counted. Likely to drop has results from big cities come in, but 35%?

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Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 5d

#Czechia votes and if you are following it, listen also to my 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @drseanhanley.bsky.social : Who is Andrej Babiš? He wants to run the state like a business, but he won't visit Putin after the elections.
▶️ open.spotify.com/episode/6wqp... #politics

Who is Andrej Babiš? He wants to run the state like a business, but he won't visit Putin after the elections

open.spotify.com

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Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson.bsky.social · 8d

If this was any other country you'd have Emerging and Frontier Marker analysts circulating thinkpieces assessing the risks of a military coup

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1.bsky.social · 8d

Trump opens with a threat to the generals:

"I've never walked into a room so silent … Have a good time. And if you want to applaud, you applaud ... If you don't like what I'm saying, you can leave the room. Of course, there goes your rank, there goes your future. but you just feel nice and loose."

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Seán Hanley @drseanhanley.bsky.social · 8d

Odborník se může samozřejmě mýlit… Můj pohled na nadcházející české volby v rozhovoru s Andrejem Matisakem pro deník Pravda. spravy.pravda.sk/svet/clanok/...

Smerom k Ficovi a Orbánovi? Babiš chce riadiť štát ako firmu, ale v Kremli s Putinom ho neuvidíte, tvrdí odborník

Už 3. a 4. októbra sa v Česku konajú parlamentné voľby. Prieskumy ukazujú, že ich vyhrá hnutie ANO Andreja Babiša s výsledkom asi aj viac ako 30 percent.

spravy.pravda.sk

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Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 9d

Democracy is on dangerous ground when its fundamental rules become the main point of political contention. This is where we are today. The truth is that the institutions, not just the players, need to change.

muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

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Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 9d

Who is Andrej Babiš? He wants to run the state like a business, but he won't visit Putin after the elections. Listen to another episode of my 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora. I talked to @drseanhanley.bsky.social.
▶️ podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Czechia #politics

Who is Andrej Babiš? He wants to run the state like a business, but he won't visit Putin after the elections by The Global Agora

Who is Andrej Babiš? Who is the real Babiš? The best kind of handle we can get on this is what he said early on about how he wants to run the country like a firm. Clearly, he wants centralized power. ...

podcasters.spotify.com

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eileen chengyin chow @chowleen.bsky.social · 11d

The South Korean Ministry of Defense has awarded medals of merit to 11 officers for disobeying direct orders of superiors during the martial law fiasco, orders that they deemed to be contrary to the constitution and endangerment to democracy.
www.chosun.com/english/nati...

National Defense Ministry Honors 11 Soldiers for Refusing Illegal Orders

National Defense Ministry Honors 11 Soldiers for Refusing Illegal Orders Honored for rejecting illegal orders during martial law, Marine death probe

www.chosun.com

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Julien Hoez @julienhoez.eu · 11d

The former Welsh leader of Nigel Farage’s right-wing party Reform UK, Nathan Gill, has admitted to taking bribes in exchange for making pro-Russia statements while a member of the European Parliament.

www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...

Ex-Brexit Party MEP pleads guilty in Russia bribe case

Nathan Gill admitted to taking bribes in exchange for making pro-Kremlin statements while he was a member of the European Parliament.

www.politico.eu

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