Erik Creighton
@ecreightonwx.bsky.social
Atmospheric Sciences ☈ Stony Brook University PhD Student. BS UAlbany ‘23. Easily distracted via poofy cloud. Researcher of stuff. He/Him
It's pretty obvious by my top 10 gusts that I did not really use my anemometer very much between 2022-2024.
December 20, 2025 at 6:01 PM
It's pretty obvious by my top 10 gusts that I did not really use my anemometer very much between 2022-2024.
These wind gusts were very different experiences.
During the 7/3 event, I was in an intense downdraft which allowed for me to actually see the wind while hunkering down in the car.
Yesterday, on the other hand, I was standing outside and the footage was visually underwhelming.
During the 7/3 event, I was in an intense downdraft which allowed for me to actually see the wind while hunkering down in the car.
Yesterday, on the other hand, I was standing outside and the footage was visually underwhelming.
December 20, 2025 at 6:01 PM
These wind gusts were very different experiences.
During the 7/3 event, I was in an intense downdraft which allowed for me to actually see the wind while hunkering down in the car.
Yesterday, on the other hand, I was standing outside and the footage was visually underwhelming.
During the 7/3 event, I was in an intense downdraft which allowed for me to actually see the wind while hunkering down in the car.
Yesterday, on the other hand, I was standing outside and the footage was visually underwhelming.
NWS New York currently has the CWA under a Wind Advisory, with forecast gusts on the upper end of WA criteria.
I may be wishcasting a little bit here (I definitely am), but I have a feeling this might end up having a little more bite than folks are expecting.
I may be wishcasting a little bit here (I definitely am), but I have a feeling this might end up having a little more bite than folks are expecting.
December 18, 2025 at 11:43 PM
NWS New York currently has the CWA under a Wind Advisory, with forecast gusts on the upper end of WA criteria.
I may be wishcasting a little bit here (I definitely am), but I have a feeling this might end up having a little more bite than folks are expecting.
I may be wishcasting a little bit here (I definitely am), but I have a feeling this might end up having a little more bite than folks are expecting.
Hard to say whether or not the HRRR is handling these surface temps properly. It’s possible this is much too warm, especially given the added complexity of a lingering snow pack.
Regardless, any downdrafts tomorrow will have the potential to mix down some pretty nasty wind gusts.
Regardless, any downdrafts tomorrow will have the potential to mix down some pretty nasty wind gusts.
December 18, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Hard to say whether or not the HRRR is handling these surface temps properly. It’s possible this is much too warm, especially given the added complexity of a lingering snow pack.
Regardless, any downdrafts tomorrow will have the potential to mix down some pretty nasty wind gusts.
Regardless, any downdrafts tomorrow will have the potential to mix down some pretty nasty wind gusts.
This of course will come down to low-level stability.
Cool SSTs mean the immediate coastal regions will sport a pretty mean inversion. Places slightly inland + higher elevation may not be so aggressively stable.
The HRRR depicts surface temps in the mid 55s over central LI at 10am.
Cool SSTs mean the immediate coastal regions will sport a pretty mean inversion. Places slightly inland + higher elevation may not be so aggressively stable.
The HRRR depicts surface temps in the mid 55s over central LI at 10am.
December 18, 2025 at 11:32 PM
This of course will come down to low-level stability.
Cool SSTs mean the immediate coastal regions will sport a pretty mean inversion. Places slightly inland + higher elevation may not be so aggressively stable.
The HRRR depicts surface temps in the mid 55s over central LI at 10am.
Cool SSTs mean the immediate coastal regions will sport a pretty mean inversion. Places slightly inland + higher elevation may not be so aggressively stable.
The HRRR depicts surface temps in the mid 55s over central LI at 10am.
Roughly 4.5”, snow still falling
December 14, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Roughly 4.5”, snow still falling
Thankfully we did not end up with a low-topped derecho in this event but there were numerous straight-line wind reports.
Perhaps the most impressive storm was outside the marginal risk in VA/MD, with a peak measured gust of 66mph.
Perhaps the most impressive storm was outside the marginal risk in VA/MD, with a peak measured gust of 66mph.
November 6, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Thankfully we did not end up with a low-topped derecho in this event but there were numerous straight-line wind reports.
Perhaps the most impressive storm was outside the marginal risk in VA/MD, with a peak measured gust of 66mph.
Perhaps the most impressive storm was outside the marginal risk in VA/MD, with a peak measured gust of 66mph.
The real place to be last night was atop the Health Sciences Center >100m AGL. Anemometer up there clocked several gusts over 30 m/s around 2am.
November 6, 2025 at 5:24 PM
The real place to be last night was atop the Health Sciences Center >100m AGL. Anemometer up there clocked several gusts over 30 m/s around 2am.
Unfortunately, the peak gusts came in the following hours. That said, I don't think sitting in a parking lot until 2am for 40mph gusts qualifies as worthwhile to me lol.
November 6, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Unfortunately, the peak gusts came in the following hours. That said, I don't think sitting in a parking lot until 2am for 40mph gusts qualifies as worthwhile to me lol.
These incredible, upper echelon events are not well understood (if that were the case, we would probably be better at anticipating them). That said, certain conditions do make them more likely, and climate change is indeed contributing to these conditions.
October 28, 2025 at 9:09 PM
These incredible, upper echelon events are not well understood (if that were the case, we would probably be better at anticipating them). That said, certain conditions do make them more likely, and climate change is indeed contributing to these conditions.
I think that's a bit of an over-simplification when talking about a specific extreme event, but I do appreciate the sentiment. While SSTs in the Caribbean were anomalous leading up to this event, it takes a lot more to get a storm like this. More accurate to refer the role of CC probabilistically.
October 28, 2025 at 9:00 PM
I think that's a bit of an over-simplification when talking about a specific extreme event, but I do appreciate the sentiment. While SSTs in the Caribbean were anomalous leading up to this event, it takes a lot more to get a storm like this. More accurate to refer the role of CC probabilistically.
Thank you for this brave statement
October 28, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Thank you for this brave statement