Ed Hawkins
@edhawkins.org
Climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading | IPCC AR6 Lead Author | MBE | Views own | https://edhawkins.org
Warming Stripes: http://www.ShowYourStripes.info
Warming Stripes: http://www.ShowYourStripes.info
For example, follow Storm Goretti’s forecast track, arriving over southern UK tomorrow evening…
January 7, 2026 at 3:35 PM
For example, follow Storm Goretti’s forecast track, arriving over southern UK tomorrow evening…
Reposted by Ed Hawkins
What would the hottest UK day of 1976 look like today?
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
January 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM
What would the hottest UK day of 1976 look like today?
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
Yes, or that we are lucky with our spatial sampling of observation locations!
January 6, 2026 at 8:12 PM
Yes, or that we are lucky with our spatial sampling of observation locations!
There is a figure in the Supp Info showing the bias but that doesn’t seem to be available at the moment…
January 6, 2026 at 7:22 PM
There is a figure in the Supp Info showing the bias but that doesn’t seem to be available at the moment…
Yes, Tambora, Laki, and a large unknown eruption in 1808/9.
January 6, 2026 at 6:56 PM
Yes, Tambora, Laki, and a large unknown eruption in 1808/9.
Thanks Kevin. It is the right thing to do, but we were actually quite surprised at the size of the differences between masked and unmasked. The coverage sampling bias was relatively small for most of the record.
January 6, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Thanks Kevin. It is the right thing to do, but we were actually quite surprised at the size of the differences between masked and unmasked. The coverage sampling bias was relatively small for most of the record.
It was the same background value as used by Met Office for their CMIP6 pi-control, which I think was a centennial average.
January 6, 2026 at 6:28 PM
It was the same background value as used by Met Office for their CMIP6 pi-control, which I think was a centennial average.
Yes, same model, same natural forcings in 1750 and 1850 pi-controls. Only change was to anthro forcings to use 1750 values from PMIP.
January 6, 2026 at 5:39 PM
Yes, same model, same natural forcings in 1750 and 1850 pi-controls. Only change was to anthro forcings to use 1750 values from PMIP.
This choice was to mimic a CMIP-like design with 1750 base state. Other plausible choices possible!
January 6, 2026 at 5:38 PM
This choice was to mimic a CMIP-like design with 1750 base state. Other plausible choices possible!
We performed both 1850 and 1750 pi-controls with the same constant small volcanic forcing like CMIP6. Only difference was anthro forcings.
January 6, 2026 at 5:37 PM
We performed both 1850 and 1750 pi-controls with the same constant small volcanic forcing like CMIP6. Only difference was anthro forcings.
What would the hottest UK day of 1976 look like today?
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
January 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM
What would the hottest UK day of 1976 look like today?
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
35.9°C back in 1976 would be 38-39°C now.
The hot extremes are warming faster than the average for the UK.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-summer...
Yes, I did check the locations and it all looked plausible. Very low humidities at the summits too apparently.
January 4, 2026 at 8:32 PM
Yes, I did check the locations and it all looked plausible. Very low humidities at the summits too apparently.
It has been fascinating to watch recently. This one was between Christmas and New Year - @roostweather.bsky.social explained to me that the two warm sites were at high elevation above the inversion with cold sites in the valleys.
January 4, 2026 at 8:07 PM
It has been fascinating to watch recently. This one was between Christmas and New Year - @roostweather.bsky.social explained to me that the two warm sites were at high elevation above the inversion with cold sites in the valleys.
2025 also set records for the amount of UK electricity produced by renewable sources (solar and wind).
Fossil gas now makes up 27% of UK’s total electricity generation.
Article with some excellent graphics: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Fossil gas now makes up 27% of UK’s total electricity generation.
Article with some excellent graphics: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
January 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM
2025 also set records for the amount of UK electricity produced by renewable sources (solar and wind).
Fossil gas now makes up 27% of UK’s total electricity generation.
Article with some excellent graphics: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Fossil gas now makes up 27% of UK’s total electricity generation.
Article with some excellent graphics: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...