Edinburgh Financial Analytics
@edinburghfa.bsky.social
EFA is a business with a mission to provide high quality analytics to investors so they can build robust and strongly performing portfolios.
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com
On Peru specifically: strength in metals mattered, but it coincided with relatively solid growth, contained inflation and manageable public finances.
That combination tends to attract flows when investors start looking beyond the usual markets.
That combination tends to attract flows when investors start looking beyond the usual markets.
January 5, 2026 at 5:53 PM
On Peru specifically: strength in metals mattered, but it coincided with relatively solid growth, contained inflation and manageable public finances.
That combination tends to attract flows when investors start looking beyond the usual markets.
That combination tends to attract flows when investors start looking beyond the usual markets.
11/
For regular chart-led macro insights from EFA, you can sign up to the free weekly chart pack here:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
#YieldCurve #Macro #Banks #Markets #FixedIncome #Investing #USEconomy
For regular chart-led macro insights from EFA, you can sign up to the free weekly chart pack here:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
#YieldCurve #Macro #Banks #Markets #FixedIncome #Investing #USEconomy
edinburghfinancialanalytics.com
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
11/
For regular chart-led macro insights from EFA, you can sign up to the free weekly chart pack here:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
#YieldCurve #Macro #Banks #Markets #FixedIncome #Investing #USEconomy
For regular chart-led macro insights from EFA, you can sign up to the free weekly chart pack here:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
#YieldCurve #Macro #Banks #Markets #FixedIncome #Investing #USEconomy
10/
In short:
If your portfolio relies on a healthy US economy in 2026, keep one eye on bonds and the other on banks as we close the year.
The message from that pair could be crucial.
In short:
If your portfolio relies on a healthy US economy in 2026, keep one eye on bonds and the other on banks as we close the year.
The message from that pair could be crucial.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
10/
In short:
If your portfolio relies on a healthy US economy in 2026, keep one eye on bonds and the other on banks as we close the year.
The message from that pair could be crucial.
In short:
If your portfolio relies on a healthy US economy in 2026, keep one eye on bonds and the other on banks as we close the year.
The message from that pair could be crucial.
9/
If 10y yields continue to slide, the risk is drifting firmly into that top-left quadrant.
That’s the one where growth stalls — and unpleasant things start happening to the real economy.
If 10y yields continue to slide, the risk is drifting firmly into that top-left quadrant.
That’s the one where growth stalls — and unpleasant things start happening to the real economy.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
9/
If 10y yields continue to slide, the risk is drifting firmly into that top-left quadrant.
That’s the one where growth stalls — and unpleasant things start happening to the real economy.
If 10y yields continue to slide, the risk is drifting firmly into that top-left quadrant.
That’s the one where growth stalls — and unpleasant things start happening to the real economy.
8/
The last six months?
Yields drifting modestly lower.
Curve shape broadly unchanged.
Banks underperforming.
Not exactly the backdrop for a confident 2026 outlook.
The last six months?
Yields drifting modestly lower.
Curve shape broadly unchanged.
Banks underperforming.
Not exactly the backdrop for a confident 2026 outlook.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
8/
The last six months?
Yields drifting modestly lower.
Curve shape broadly unchanged.
Banks underperforming.
Not exactly the backdrop for a confident 2026 outlook.
The last six months?
Yields drifting modestly lower.
Curve shape broadly unchanged.
Banks underperforming.
Not exactly the backdrop for a confident 2026 outlook.
7/
Bull steepeners (top left):
Yields falling, curve steepening as growth fears rise.
On average, bank performance is negative.
Credit concerns dominate.
Bull steepeners (top left):
Yields falling, curve steepening as growth fears rise.
On average, bank performance is negative.
Credit concerns dominate.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
7/
Bull steepeners (top left):
Yields falling, curve steepening as growth fears rise.
On average, bank performance is negative.
Credit concerns dominate.
Bull steepeners (top left):
Yields falling, curve steepening as growth fears rise.
On average, bank performance is negative.
Credit concerns dominate.
6/
Bear steepeners (top right):
Long-end yields selling off faster.
These tend to coincide with strong bank performance.
This is the “growth is robust” version of steepening.
Bear steepeners (top right):
Long-end yields selling off faster.
These tend to coincide with strong bank performance.
This is the “growth is robust” version of steepening.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
6/
Bear steepeners (top right):
Long-end yields selling off faster.
These tend to coincide with strong bank performance.
This is the “growth is robust” version of steepening.
Bear steepeners (top right):
Long-end yields selling off faster.
These tend to coincide with strong bank performance.
This is the “growth is robust” version of steepening.
5/
What it shows is less comforting.
Steepeners aren’t always good for banks.
What it shows is less comforting.
Steepeners aren’t always good for banks.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
5/
What it shows is less comforting.
Steepeners aren’t always good for banks.
What it shows is less comforting.
Steepeners aren’t always good for banks.
4/
But is it actually true?
The chart below plots banks’ relative performance across the four classic curve regimes:
• bear / bull
• flattening / steepening
Green = good. Red = bad.
But is it actually true?
The chart below plots banks’ relative performance across the four classic curve regimes:
• bear / bull
• flattening / steepening
Green = good. Red = bad.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
4/
But is it actually true?
The chart below plots banks’ relative performance across the four classic curve regimes:
• bear / bull
• flattening / steepening
Green = good. Red = bad.
But is it actually true?
The chart below plots banks’ relative performance across the four classic curve regimes:
• bear / bull
• flattening / steepening
Green = good. Red = bad.
3/
The logic is familiar:
A steepening yield curve is good for banks.
Borrow short, lend long, make profits.
The logic is familiar:
A steepening yield curve is good for banks.
Borrow short, lend long, make profits.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
3/
The logic is familiar:
A steepening yield curve is good for banks.
Borrow short, lend long, make profits.
The logic is familiar:
A steepening yield curve is good for banks.
Borrow short, lend long, make profits.
2/
Bank stocks have perked up in recent weeks.
Since banks usually outperform when the cycle turns up, this has been taken as confirmation of the “strong economy” narrative.
Bank stocks have perked up in recent weeks.
Since banks usually outperform when the cycle turns up, this has been taken as confirmation of the “strong economy” narrative.
December 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM
2/
Bank stocks have perked up in recent weeks.
Since banks usually outperform when the cycle turns up, this has been taken as confirmation of the “strong economy” narrative.
Bank stocks have perked up in recent weeks.
Since banks usually outperform when the cycle turns up, this has been taken as confirmation of the “strong economy” narrative.
7/7 If the Euro is merely the "least-worst" currency... that's not saying much for the rest! Our models suggest: It might be time to reduce Euro exposure.
David Jubb, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
Follow me for more FX signals and chaos-theory analysis.
#FX #Currencies
David Jubb, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
Follow me for more FX signals and chaos-theory analysis.
#FX #Currencies
November 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
7/7 If the Euro is merely the "least-worst" currency... that's not saying much for the rest! Our models suggest: It might be time to reduce Euro exposure.
David Jubb, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
Follow me for more FX signals and chaos-theory analysis.
#FX #Currencies
David Jubb, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
Follow me for more FX signals and chaos-theory analysis.
#FX #Currencies
6/7 Pro-Euro arguments look flimsy:
Monetary: US yields are higher, rate differential hasn't moved much in 3 years.
Geopolitics: Ukraine resolution is recent and uncertain.
Economic strength matters. Germany & France aren't in a golden era (China competition, debt dynamics).
Monetary: US yields are higher, rate differential hasn't moved much in 3 years.
Geopolitics: Ukraine resolution is recent and uncertain.
Economic strength matters. Germany & France aren't in a golden era (China competition, debt dynamics).
November 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
6/7 Pro-Euro arguments look flimsy:
Monetary: US yields are higher, rate differential hasn't moved much in 3 years.
Geopolitics: Ukraine resolution is recent and uncertain.
Economic strength matters. Germany & France aren't in a golden era (China competition, debt dynamics).
Monetary: US yields are higher, rate differential hasn't moved much in 3 years.
Geopolitics: Ukraine resolution is recent and uncertain.
Economic strength matters. Germany & France aren't in a golden era (China competition, debt dynamics).
5/7 Yes, there are fundamental arguments for Euro strength. But when our model shows exhaustion in a bullish trend, it often means investors are too focused on the positives and missing the negatives.
November 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
5/7 Yes, there are fundamental arguments for Euro strength. But when our model shows exhaustion in a bullish trend, it often means investors are too focused on the positives and missing the negatives.
4/7 Where it gets interesting: The Euro (€). Our chaos-theory analysis is now flashing an end-of-trend exhaustion signal. This pattern has mattered several times over the last decade. Odds of Euro weakness are meaningfully higher. #EUR
November 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
4/7 Where it gets interesting: The Euro (€). Our chaos-theory analysis is now flashing an end-of-trend exhaustion signal. This pattern has mattered several times over the last decade. Odds of Euro weakness are meaningfully higher. #EUR
3/7 The US Dollar (USD): Also still "unloved" by many, despite bouncing from long-term support (vs. G10 basket). Models say stay long USD for now. (Awaiting delayed CFTC positioning data... Part-timers.) #USD
November 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
3/7 The US Dollar (USD): Also still "unloved" by many, despite bouncing from long-term support (vs. G10 basket). Models say stay long USD for now. (Awaiting delayed CFTC positioning data... Part-timers.) #USD
2/7 The Yen (JPY): Still the most unloved currency. Japan keeps copying Liz Truss (rarely a winner). Our chaos-theory models haven't flashed "exhaustion" yet, so I'm holding off on a strong JPY call for now. #JPY
November 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
2/7 The Yen (JPY): Still the most unloved currency. Japan keeps copying Liz Truss (rarely a winner). Our chaos-theory models haven't flashed "exhaustion" yet, so I'm holding off on a strong JPY call for now. #JPY
Sorry messed up the link, here it is:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#top_charts
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#top_charts
Edinburgh Financial Analytics
Using fear and greed in markets to give you an investment edge
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Sorry messed up the link, here it is:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#top_charts
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#top_charts
Sorry messed up the link, here it is:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
Edinburgh Financial Analytics
Using fear and greed in markets to give you an investment edge
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Sorry messed up the link, here it is:
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com#sign_up
8/
Good luck in the markets.
Dave, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
#MarketBreadth #MarketSignals #GlobalMarkets #RiskManagement #BehaviouralFinance
Good luck in the markets.
Dave, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
#MarketBreadth #MarketSignals #GlobalMarkets #RiskManagement #BehaviouralFinance
November 21, 2025 at 11:15 AM
8/
Good luck in the markets.
Dave, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
#MarketBreadth #MarketSignals #GlobalMarkets #RiskManagement #BehaviouralFinance
Good luck in the markets.
Dave, Edinburgh Financial Analytics
#MarketBreadth #MarketSignals #GlobalMarkets #RiskManagement #BehaviouralFinance