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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 5d

You can also watch back to our event discussing the report with valuable comments from
@ruthpatrick0.bsky.social here: ifs.org.uk/events/why-d...

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 5d

For lots more detail and interesting facts you can read the green budget chapter here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Support for children with disabilities and special educational needs | Institute for Fiscal Studies

How do trends, demographics and outcomes of children receiving support for health conditions compare across the benefits and education systems?

ifs.org.uk

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 5d

And this is a growing issue. The share of children getting high-level targeted support for additional needs has doubled across both the benefit and education systems.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 5d

New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.

50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.

Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 5d

Children who receive support are more likely to be out-of-work or education, receiving out-of-work benefits, or receiving health-related benefits at age 22.

There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.

Chart shows outcomes at age 22 for children aged 15 in 2021, by type of support received. Title states: "Children receiving SEND or disability support are more likely to receive support in adulthood and be out of work or not in education."

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Reposted by Eduin Latimer

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 5d

NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.

THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:

Chart shows share of under 16s on disability benefits and share of pupils with high-level special educational support. Title states: "The share of children receiving high-level special educational support and the share on disability benefits have both doubled in the past decade."

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Reposted by Eduin Latimer

Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 13d

Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn.

This point is especially important.

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Reposted by Eduin Latimer

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 14d

Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented.

Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children:

[THREAD:🧵]

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

Final note: long-lasting protections for existing claimants are not unique to this government. There are many previous reforms where governments faced similar trade-offs. We discuss them in the comment: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...

When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Important trade-offs are involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts.

ifs.org.uk

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

We think the case for transitional protections tends to become weaker the longer they last. We therefore think there’s a case for looking at putting a time limit on these transitional protections. This time limit could be long so protections last years without being permanent.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

The second big downside is that it can create perverse incentives. In this case, it reduces the incentive for existing claimants to end their claim, for instance by looking for work. The OBR estimate that 30,000 fewer people will end their UC Health claims due to these protections.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

However, there are downsides to transitional protections too. First, they can lead to treating very similar claimants differently. In this case, two people with the exact same level of disability will receive very different levels of support based on the precise date they started their claim.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

There is a strong case for providing transitional protections. Adjusting to immediate cuts in income is particularly hard as some types of spending (such as rental contracts) are hard to adjust quickly. Transitional protections can make adjusting to an income cut easier.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

The protections for existing claimants will also last a long time. Currently around 15% of incapacity benefit (including UC health) claimants have been claiming for 15 years or longer. In 2041 there will still be around 400,000 people who get extra UC health because of this protection.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

These protections are a big decision. They reduce the savings from the reform in 2029/30 by around £5 billion.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

First, what were the transitional protections in the recent reforms? The big cut (around £2,500 a year) was for new claimants to the health element of universal credit. In contrast, the government decided to fully protect existing claimants, so they see no cut to their income in real-terms.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Aug 27

@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵

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Reposted by Eduin Latimer

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · Aug 27

When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?

@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:

ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...

When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Important trade-offs are involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts.

ifs.org.uk

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

Apologies, 2014 figures in initial graph in the above were inaccurate. Corrected graph here, no change to key message.

Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

This survey provides more evidence of a worsening in population mental health that may be contributing to rising disability benefit claims. But it is unlikely to be the whole explanation. The design of the benefits system and changes in real incomes are also likely to playing a role.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

This evidence on population mental health helps throw more light on the recent growth in disability benefit claims in the UK, where we have seen the fastest increase in claims relating to mental health or learning and behavioural conditions.

Bar chart showing growth in share of 16-64-year-olds claiming disabilty benefits in England and Wales

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

People who are out of work are much more likely to have a common mental health condition and the gap between those in and out of work has grown in last ten years. This may help to explain part of the rise in people who report not working due to ill health.

Bar chart showing prevalence of mental health conditions amongst people in and out of work.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

Anxiety is the fastest growing mental health condition, double as many people report the symptoms of generalised anxiety disorder as did in 2007. The most common condition remains the vague “common mental health condition-not otherwise specified” category.

Bar chart showing prevalence of six different mental health conditions.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

The results from this new survey match the trend from four other surveys that we @theifs.bsky.social found when we looked at this earlier this year.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...

Bar chart showing rise in share of people aged 16-64 with a mental health condition from 15% in 1993 to 23% in 2023/24

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · Jul 15

Anxiety is the fastest growing mental health condition although, twice as many people are reporting the symptoms for it as did in 2007. The most common mental health condition remains the vague “common mental health condition-not otherwise specified” category.

Bar chart showing prevalence of six different types of mental health condition between 1993 and 2023/24