You can find the report here: www.gov.uk/government/p...

They also provide some insight into the recent surge in disability benefit claims. Our results provide some suggestive evidence that rising cost-of-living is one factor behind the recent surge in disability benefit claims.

Our results are important for benefit design. Policy makers should account for the indirect effect of changing one bit of the benefit system on other bits of the system.

While @lowpaycommission.bsky.social have closely monitored recent increases and found no clear evidence of negative employment effects, recent falls in employment in low-paid sectors such as hospitality make this is a riskier time to raise minimum wage rates than some recent years.

Minimum wages for younger workers are also set to grow faster than the 21+ rate as the Government moves towards its commitment to equalise the 18-20 minimum wage rate to the 21+ minimum wage.

You can also watch back to our event discussing the report with valuable comments from
@ruthpatrick0.bsky.social here: ifs.org.uk/events/why-d...

For lots more detail and interesting facts you can read the green budget chapter here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

And this is a growing issue. The share of children getting high-level targeted support for additional needs has doubled across both the benefit and education systems.

Final note: long-lasting protections for existing claimants are not unique to this government. There are many previous reforms where governments faced similar trade-offs. We discuss them in the comment: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...