Edward Hunter Christie
@ehunterchristie.bsky.social
14K followers 810 following 2.6K posts
Political and Strategic Affairs Editor of the Journal of Geoeconomics Former NATO official PhD VUB & Royal Military Academy of Belgium Views my own
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Reposted by Edward Hunter Christie
iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
”Developing oil sites, extracting and transporting crude requires a huge range of highly specialized equipment,many of which Russia lacks because of sanctions”
Everything is more expensive.All these pressures..very hard for Russia to raise production even in the near term
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
The Slow Demise of Russian Oil
The toll of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine and Western sanctions has hastened the decline in Russian oil production.
www.wsj.com
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
Elbridge Colby strikes again.
The intention is to make it harder for us Europeans to defend ourselves from actual and potential Russian aggression.
The conclusion is simple. We need comprehensive military autonomy.
We need the ability to deter and defeat Moscow by ourselves.
theatlantic.com
The Pentagon has blocked certain arms sales to Europe after identifying some weapons as being in short supply, Vivian Salama reports. If the hold is long-term, it risks weakening European “defenses at a time when Russia poses an imminent threat.”
The U.S. Is Quietly Pausing Some Arms Sales to Europe
As part of the “America First” agenda, the Department of Defense is stockpiling weapons.
bit.ly
Reposted by Edward Hunter Christie
euromaidanpress.bsky.social
Ukraine built deep-strike missiles because Western allies restrict donated weapons

Now Ukrainian crews hit targets hundreds of km inside Russia, destroying missile teams

But they've also become prime tartets. Map shows August's crew-vs-crew strikes across border euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/25/b...
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
An impressive performance by the French justice system. The world would be a better place if more countries had a genuine separation of powers, not as an abstract theory like in the United States, but as a practical and institutional reality.

www.bbc.com/news/article...
Nicolas Sarkozy sentenced to five years in Libya campaign financing case
Nicolas Sarkozy, president from 2007-12, was found guilty of criminal conspiracy but cleared of other charges.
www.bbc.com
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
If one wants Israel to agree, necessary if one wants a sustainable solution, then Israel needs security guarantees against the next possible October 7 attack.
Allowing a fully-fledged state to emerge, one that could import and produce weapons, and vote for lunatics like Hamas, is a hard sell.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
Kremlinese-to-English translation:

Groundless --> grounded, justified
Unworthy of attention --> worthy of your careful attention
Denied --> we did it and it's my job to say we didn't
Reposted by Edward Hunter Christie
chadbourn.bsky.social
Poland’s Foreign Minister cracking his knuckles.
Radoslaw Sikorski @sikorskiradek
Roger that.
E The Bulwark • @BulwarkOnline • 4hl
Reporter: "Do you think that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace?"
Trump: "Yes, I do."
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
So what you're really saying is that Kurds, Uyghurs, Chechens don't have the same human rights as Palestinians?

By the way, if you marched openly and courageously 40 years ago, why not show your face and full name here?
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
Would you support recognising every national group that asks for it? And would you support BDS policies, or even force, against any established state that objects?
Reposted by Edward Hunter Christie
darthputinkgb.bsky.social
Trump's UN speech made me seem sane.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
You are confusing two situations: already being a recognised state, which in principle is stable and permanent -- versus the moment when a decision is made to recognise a state.

In the 2nd situation, other states have leverage. There's no guarantee that a nation gets recognised as a state.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
15-15
And a masterclass in foreign policy reasoning from Singapore here. States don't often openly explain how they see themselves and how that may condition their positions. This is a welcome exception.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma61...
[FULL] Vivian Balakrishnan’s statement on Gaza, situation in Middle East
YouTube video by The Straits Times
www.youtube.com
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
14-15
Source for the statement of the Belgian Prime Minister:

premier.be/nl/nieuws/st...
premier.be
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
13-15
Another interesting case is Singapore, which has also found a singular way of addressing the challenge.
Singapore has the marvellous quality of having a government that explains the Singaporean interest in clear language before laying out its position - a must-watch, link follows in 15-15.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
12-15
But if France and the UK believed that they were now living up to a higher level of responsibility, both as P5 nations and as former colonial powers in the Middle East, they may in fact have underperformed by deploying, unconditionally, a strategic diplomatic tool that can only be used once.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
11-15
It is hard not to detect, in both the UK and French positions, a motivation to assuage certain domestic audiences - whether from the proverbial street or from party political machineries.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
10-15
I mentioned political solidity earlier. Palestinian-friendly sentiments are widespread in Belgium, from both its large Muslim communities and from the political left. Roughly the same landscape as in France and the UK.
And yet Belgium is less wobbly and more pragmatic than both.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
9-15
Nobody can guarantee that the conditions will be met. But they make sense. Hamas must be clearly out of the picture. The hostages must all be returned. The Palestinian polity needs to get its house in order.
As for the call on Arab states, it isn't a condition, but the call is well put.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
8-15
But Belgium has probably hit the sweet spot within Western Europe. While larger friends leap forward - first Spain, then France and the UK - Belgium worked out a way of getting applause at the UN while nailing in some conditionality that embeds a strategic consideration.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
7-15
...should always be thought of as *strategic* tools of the diplomatic arsenal, and not as tactical acts to do or appear to be doing "something" in an uncomfortable situation.
Once a wave of recognitions is in motion, it is hard for small states not to go along.
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
6-15
Recognising a state in the current era is an irreversible step. Those who complain that the moves by the UK, France, Canada and others won't solve the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict miss the longer-term picture. Those recognitions will matter ultimately. Indeed such decisions...
ehunterchristie.bsky.social
5-15
"All these steps are intended to guarantee the security of both the Israeli and Palestinian populations.

At the same time, we also strongly call for the recognition of the State of Israel by all Arab countries."