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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 8d

While job losses continue in the federal sector and are likely to spike in October, layoffs remain low in the private sector. If private-sector layoffs start to tick up while hiring stays relatively depressed then the labor market could weaken quickly. #EconSky #NumbersDay

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 8d

When employment expands with a growing labor market, hires exceed separations (quits, layoffs, etc.). In the federal sector, separations exceeded hires every month since Jan, a total of 77k. This doesn't count the thousands leaving federal payrolls tomorrow (not including likely shutdown furloughs).

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 8d

Hires and quits remain below pre-pandemic levels as workers and employers sit tight. All else equal, lower churn can make it harder for new entrants to break into the labor market and can be a drag on average wage growth since finding a new job is often the best way to see better pay.
#NumbersDay

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 8d

Latest #JOLTS data out this morning for August 2025 tells us job openings remained unchanged since July. Hires and quits both ticked down while layoffs and discharges held steady. The low hires rate is troubling, now at a rate similar to the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession.
#EconSky

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 12d

"Protecting worker power and advancing equity are intersecting goals, and both are essential to building better schools, and a thriving economy, that serves all communities," writes @adewalemaye.bsky.social @epi.org
Learn more here: www.epi.org/blog/anti-eq...

Anti-equity legislation reinforces threats to education and unions

On March 28, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine signed an anti-diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) higher education law that regulates classroom discussions, puts diversity scholarships at risk, and largely...

www.epi.org

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 27d

In August, nominal wage growth ticked down to 3.7% while #inflation continued to rise up 0.6 percentage points since April and hitting 2.9% last month. Taken together, real wage growth has continued to fall. Real wage growth is now at 0.7% over the year, cut in half over the last 3 months.
#EconSky

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi.bsky.social · 29d

The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 29d

Any political retaliation will harm the ability for BLS to provide timely and unbiased statistics, either because Trump is intending to undermine data integrity or because political attacks on the dedicated public servants at BLS limit their ability to collect, process, and release these statistics.

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 29d

Preliminary estimates are consistent with other signs of slowing job growth. Remember: the bulk of these revisions reflect 2024. Despite the angst they will generate from the White House, today’s revisions tell us very little about the state of Trump’s economy since he wasn’t president in 2024.

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 29d

BLS releases annual preliminary benchmark revision, something they do every year.

#JobsReport estimates are based on employer survey responses, that arrive quickly. Later, BLS checks slow-arriving, more-reliable administrative data from employers' UI premium filings.
www.bls.gov/news.release...

The preliminary benchmark revision reflects the difference between two independently derived
employment counts, each subject to their own sources of error. It serves as a preliminary measure
of the total error in CES employment estimates from March 2024 to March 2025. Preliminary research,
which is not comprehensive and is subject to updates in QCEW data, indicates that the primary
contributors to the overestimation of employment growth are likely the result of two sources—response
error and nonresponse error. First, businesses reported less employment to the QCEW than they
reported to the CES survey (response error). Second, businesses who were selected for the CES survey
but did not respond reported less employment to the QCEW than those businesses who did respond to
the CES survey (nonresponse error). Estimates of other errors, such as the forecast error from the
net birth-death model, are not available at this time. Information on how the net birth-death
forecasts have reduced benchmark revisions historically are available on the CES Birth-Death Model
Frequently Asked Questions page in question 10, www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm.

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D. @ahecon.bsky.social · 29d

Seems Trump would be happy to agree job growth was lower than previously measured in the Biden administration.

Revisions come from dedicated BLS economists using science and transparency, not bc of political ends, as @elisegould.bsky.social and @benzipperer.org explain www.epi.org/blog/todays-...

Today’s BLS preliminary benchmark revisions are necessary for timely and accurate data—not fodder for Trump’s attacks

Today’s preliminary benchmark announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals weaker job growth between March 2024 and March 2025 than when it was first reported based on survey data. T...

www.epi.org

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Ismael Cid Martínez @icidmartinez.bsky.social · 29d

As we point out in a new report, Trump and Congressional Republicans’ attacks on basic needs programs that keep millions of children out of poverty will continue to expand these inequities – forcing children of color to inherit poverty for generations.
www.epi.org/publication/...

The last two recessions have hit low-income families of color hard: Trump’s economic agenda will expose millions to even more pain when the next recession strikes

The Great Recession and the pandemic recession hit low-income families of color especially hard—pushing many into unemployment, poverty, and housing insecurity. The swift and bold policy response to t...

www.epi.org

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Ismael Cid Martínez @icidmartinez.bsky.social · 29d

Disparities in income continue to leave families of color with children disproportionately vulnerable to poverty. Black & Hispanic children remain 3 times as likely as their white peers to suffer poverty. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Supplemental child poverty rates since 2021 by race and ethnicity

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Ismael Cid Martínez @icidmartinez.bsky.social · 29d

New Census 2024 income data show a mixed picture for families of color. Asian & Hispanic families saw their median income rise. But Black families experienced a fall. Typical Black & Hispanic households continue to earn just a fraction of their white peers' income. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Real median household income by race and ethnicity

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Hilary Wething @hilwething.bsky.social · 29d

There is simply no substitute for government data infrastructure. Pressure from the executive branch to alter data to fit political aims will damage a valuable public good that is critical for business decisions, policymaking, and planning by all stakeholders in the economy.

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Hilary Wething @hilwething.bsky.social · 29d

Some big #NumbersDay releases today—Just a reminder that the Census data are incredibly valuable. We get transparent and non-politicized data to make informed decisions about what policies are delivering economic security for working people.

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Reposted by Elise Gould

Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 29d

About 8% of people lacked any form of health insurance in 2024. Unfortunately that rate will dramatically increase in the coming years, from 27 million to more than 40 million thanks to Republicans who cut Medicaid and ACA marketplace subsidies

Bar graph from new Census data showing that 8.0% of people lacked any form of health insurance in 2024.

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 29d

While changes at the median or 10th percentile were not statistically significant between 2023 and 2024, income grew 1.3% and 2.2% in real terms at the middle and bottom, respectively. However, inequality did rise because the top grew even faster (4.2% at the 90th percentile).
#EconSky #NumbersDay

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 29d

While median earnings and incomes held strong in 2024, it's important to remember that these data do not say anything about 2025. Trump policies—chaotic and high tariffs, mass deportations, attacks on the federal workforce—have already led to a softening labor market and more inflationary pressures.

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 29d

The latest data out from #Census today show median earnings and median household incomes kept pace with inflation in 2024. Men's earnings rose 3.7% increasing the gender wage gap back to 2019 levels. Income grew at the top, but not the middle or bottom, reversing recent trends.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 29d

Today’s preliminary benchmark announcement from BLS reveals that job growth between March 2024 and March 2025 was half as fast as when it was first reported based on survey data.

Read what @benzipperer.org and I wrote about those revisions and what they mean:
www.epi.org/blog/todays-...
#EconSky

Today’s BLS preliminary benchmark revisions are necessary for timely and accurate data—not fodder for Trump’s attacks

Today’s preliminary benchmark announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals weaker job growth between March 2024 and March 2025 than when it was first reported based on survey data. T...

www.epi.org

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · Sep 5

The unemployment rate for young workers (16-24) also continued to increase with the latest data. Again, it's a notably volatile series because of small sample sizes, but it's now up just over a percentage point since March. A weak hires rate can make it harder for new entrants to find jobs.
#EconSky

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · Sep 5

The household survey also provides useful information about labor market health. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, it's highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show sustained increases in Black unemployment over the last three months, hitting 7.5% in August.
#EconSky

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · Sep 5

Next week, the BLS will release a preliminary benchmark revision to payroll employment. One of the reasons this survey is the gold standard is because it gets benchmarked to unemployment insurance tax records annually. The final revision is released in February 2026.
www.bls.gov/sae/notices/...

2025 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data to be Released on September 9, 2025

www.bls.gov

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Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · Sep 5

Lest anyone tells you otherwise, the monthly revisions that led to a fall in employment for June are part of the normal #JobsDay process as BLS receives additional reports from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.

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