Eric's Risk Assessment
@ericcarroll.zeroes.ca.ap.brid.gy
Doing my own risk assessment of #pandemic #massinfection since 2020.
"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." - Philip K. Dick
🌉 bridged from ⁂ https://zeroes.ca/@EricCarroll, follow @ap.brid.gy to interact
"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." - Philip K. Dick
🌉 bridged from ⁂ https://zeroes.ca/@EricCarroll, follow @ap.brid.gy to interact
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
If I were paid to do this job, I'd be in the media and on social media every day.
I'd say:
1)get vaccinated for covid and the flu.
2) wear a respirator (N95) mask in crowded indoor spaces like public transit.
3) keep your holiday get-togethers safe by keeping things well ventilated and filtered.
I'd say:
1)get vaccinated for covid and the flu.
2) wear a respirator (N95) mask in crowded indoor spaces like public transit.
3) keep your holiday get-togethers safe by keeping things well ventilated and filtered.
December 27, 2025 at 6:24 PM
If I were paid to do this job, I'd be in the media and on social media every day.
I'd say:
1)get vaccinated for covid and the flu.
2) wear a respirator (N95) mask in crowded indoor spaces like public transit.
3) keep your holiday get-togethers safe by keeping things well ventilated and filtered.
I'd say:
1)get vaccinated for covid and the flu.
2) wear a respirator (N95) mask in crowded indoor spaces like public transit.
3) keep your holiday get-togethers safe by keeping things well ventilated and filtered.
Tis the season to be reminded of your family's willingness to accept health risk.
And to be forcefully reminded of your difference in risk assessment.
And to be forcefully reminded of your difference in risk assessment.
December 27, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Tis the season to be reminded of your family's willingness to accept health risk.
And to be forcefully reminded of your difference in risk assessment.
And to be forcefully reminded of your difference in risk assessment.
This is a great bluesky thread that runs through the major papers published in 2020 about what we knew then about #covid.
Its an impressive list and a major scientific accomplishment. Most of the major risks and issues were at least pointed at in rough by the end of 2020.
Not withstanding the […]
Its an impressive list and a major scientific accomplishment. Most of the major risks and issues were at least pointed at in rough by the end of 2020.
Not withstanding the […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
December 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
This is a great bluesky thread that runs through the major papers published in 2020 about what we knew then about #covid.
Its an impressive list and a major scientific accomplishment. Most of the major risks and issues were at least pointed at in rough by the end of 2020.
Not withstanding the […]
Its an impressive list and a major scientific accomplishment. Most of the major risks and issues were at least pointed at in rough by the end of 2020.
Not withstanding the […]
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
Preview from 👆
December 20, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Preview from 👆
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
Flu hospitalizations nearly double as H3N2 spreads across Canada
For the week ending Dec. 13, Canada saw 11,646 new cases of the flu being detected, which means 27.7 per cent of all the tests conducted in the country came out positive.
For the week ending Dec. 13, Canada saw 11,646 new cases of the flu being detected, which means 27.7 per cent of all the tests conducted in the country came out positive.
December 19, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Flu hospitalizations nearly double as H3N2 spreads across Canada
For the week ending Dec. 13, Canada saw 11,646 new cases of the flu being detected, which means 27.7 per cent of all the tests conducted in the country came out positive.
For the week ending Dec. 13, Canada saw 11,646 new cases of the flu being detected, which means 27.7 per cent of all the tests conducted in the country came out positive.
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
Nova Scotia Health brings back mask mandate https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-health-reintroduces-masking-as-flu-season-blows-in-early
𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 ⇢ CanadaHealthwatch.ca/newsletter
𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 ⇢ CanadaHealthwatch.ca/newsletter
December 19, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Nova Scotia Health brings back mask mandate https://www.saltwire.com/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-health-reintroduces-masking-as-flu-season-blows-in-early
𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 ⇢ CanadaHealthwatch.ca/newsletter
𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 ⇢ CanadaHealthwatch.ca/newsletter
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
From @jammer.bsky.social (aka @acrossthemersey on Twitter):
"The US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, updated its data for the population 16 years and over living with a disability..."
OP: x.com/acrossthemer...
[ see next posts for larger images ]
"The US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, updated its data for the population 16 years and over living with a disability..."
OP: x.com/acrossthemer...
[ see next posts for larger images ]
December 19, 2025 at 2:34 AM
From @jammer.bsky.social (aka @acrossthemersey on Twitter):
"The US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, updated its data for the population 16 years and over living with a disability..."
OP: x.com/acrossthemer...
[ see next posts for larger images ]
"The US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, updated its data for the population 16 years and over living with a disability..."
OP: x.com/acrossthemer...
[ see next posts for larger images ]
>A systematic review and meta-analysis published in Open Forum Infectious Diseases reported a pooled prevalence of long COVID as 36% worldwide.
https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/news/more-than-one-third-of-individuals-with-covid19-experience-long-covid/ […]
https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/news/more-than-one-third-of-individuals-with-covid19-experience-long-covid/ […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
December 19, 2025 at 1:12 AM
>A systematic review and meta-analysis published in Open Forum Infectious Diseases reported a pooled prevalence of long COVID as 36% worldwide.
https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/news/more-than-one-third-of-individuals-with-covid19-experience-long-covid/ […]
https://www.thecardiologyadvisor.com/news/more-than-one-third-of-individuals-with-covid19-experience-long-covid/ […]
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
🚨🧵by @michaelryan756 on Twitter on "why we still talk about COVID in 2025..." Here's why 👇
"COVID infections don’t just give you a rough week.
They hit your heart, vessels, rhythm, and long-term risk profile..."
🎯🧵 by Michael & data subthread from @1goodtern:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/19981...
"COVID infections don’t just give you a rough week.
They hit your heart, vessels, rhythm, and long-term risk profile..."
🎯🧵 by Michael & data subthread from @1goodtern:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/19981...
December 10, 2025 at 9:27 PM
🚨🧵by @michaelryan756 on Twitter on "why we still talk about COVID in 2025..." Here's why 👇
"COVID infections don’t just give you a rough week.
They hit your heart, vessels, rhythm, and long-term risk profile..."
🎯🧵 by Michael & data subthread from @1goodtern:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/19981...
"COVID infections don’t just give you a rough week.
They hit your heart, vessels, rhythm, and long-term risk profile..."
🎯🧵 by Michael & data subthread from @1goodtern:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/19981...
If you haven't read the latest from @johnsnowproject.bsky.social you really need to.
TL;DR SARS2 is a neurotropic vasculitis that suppresses the immune system at a *population level* below baseline, and reinfection makes it worse.
Male, >41, post acute symptoms or cardiovascular disease […]
TL;DR SARS2 is a neurotropic vasculitis that suppresses the immune system at a *population level* below baseline, and reinfection makes it worse.
Male, >41, post acute symptoms or cardiovascular disease […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
December 9, 2025 at 3:28 PM
If you haven't read the latest from @johnsnowproject.bsky.social you really need to.
TL;DR SARS2 is a neurotropic vasculitis that suppresses the immune system at a *population level* below baseline, and reinfection makes it worse.
Male, >41, post acute symptoms or cardiovascular disease […]
TL;DR SARS2 is a neurotropic vasculitis that suppresses the immune system at a *population level* below baseline, and reinfection makes it worse.
Male, >41, post acute symptoms or cardiovascular disease […]
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
Why the “immunity debt” narrative ultimately collapsed:
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
December 8, 2025 at 3:21 AM
Why the “immunity debt” narrative ultimately collapsed:
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
Over the past few months, the conversation has moved toward the conclusion the evidence has been pointing to for years.
Since 2022, immunity debt offered an easy explanation for the unusual patterns of illness we kept seeing.
1/7
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
SARS-CoV-2 Leaves a Lasting Mark on the Immune System
johnsnowproject.org/primers/sars...
johnsnowproject.org/primers/sars...
SARS-CoV-2 Leaves a Lasting Mark on the Immune System
A landmark new study shows COVID-19 isn’t ‘just a cold’: One infection left people with long-lasting immune damage, and those with heart disease lost up to 70% of key immune cells. Reinfections may wo...
johnsnowproject.org
December 7, 2025 at 9:24 PM
SARS-CoV-2 Leaves a Lasting Mark on the Immune System
johnsnowproject.org/primers/sars...
johnsnowproject.org/primers/sars...
> a nasal spray containing interferon-alpha (IFN-α), a naturally occurring protein with broad antiviral activity, could reduce the risk of #covid19 infection by 40% compared to placebo.
Australian-led trial shows nasal spray reduces COVID-19 risk in cancer patients […]
Australian-led trial shows nasal spray reduces COVID-19 risk in cancer patients […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
August 30, 2025 at 12:20 AM
> a nasal spray containing interferon-alpha (IFN-α), a naturally occurring protein with broad antiviral activity, could reduce the risk of #covid19 infection by 40% compared to placebo.
Australian-led trial shows nasal spray reduces COVID-19 risk in cancer patients […]
Australian-led trial shows nasal spray reduces COVID-19 risk in cancer patients […]
Second virucide paper I've seen today. This one targets RSV, influenza & SARS2. Very early testing stages.
> We synthesized a modified cyclodextrin that simultaneously mimics heparan sulfate and sialic acid. This compound demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity against important human […]
> We synthesized a modified cyclodextrin that simultaneously mimics heparan sulfate and sialic acid. This compound demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity against important human […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
August 3, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Second virucide paper I've seen today. This one targets RSV, influenza & SARS2. Very early testing stages.
> We synthesized a modified cyclodextrin that simultaneously mimics heparan sulfate and sialic acid. This compound demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity against important human […]
> We synthesized a modified cyclodextrin that simultaneously mimics heparan sulfate and sialic acid. This compound demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity against important human […]
I'm gonna need a bigger hypothesis list.
> Our review proposes that neuroinflammation—immune activation within the brain—is one key driver of symptoms.
Scientists identify shared biological roots of #LongCOVID and chronic fatigue syndrome […]
> Our review proposes that neuroinflammation—immune activation within the brain—is one key driver of symptoms.
Scientists identify shared biological roots of #LongCOVID and chronic fatigue syndrome […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
August 2, 2025 at 4:53 PM
I'm gonna need a bigger hypothesis list.
> Our review proposes that neuroinflammation—immune activation within the brain—is one key driver of symptoms.
Scientists identify shared biological roots of #LongCOVID and chronic fatigue syndrome […]
> Our review proposes that neuroinflammation—immune activation within the brain—is one key driver of symptoms.
Scientists identify shared biological roots of #LongCOVID and chronic fatigue syndrome […]
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
From 👆
"Evidence of mass illness is everywhere: workplace outbreaks, long-term sickness, cognitive issues, kids constantly sick.
This isn’t just propaganda, it’s denial by choice.
The reality is that people aren’t just misled, they want to believe it’s over.
Denial is embraced."
"Evidence of mass illness is everywhere: workplace outbreaks, long-term sickness, cognitive issues, kids constantly sick.
This isn’t just propaganda, it’s denial by choice.
The reality is that people aren’t just misled, they want to believe it’s over.
Denial is embraced."
July 30, 2025 at 9:28 PM
From 👆
"Evidence of mass illness is everywhere: workplace outbreaks, long-term sickness, cognitive issues, kids constantly sick.
This isn’t just propaganda, it’s denial by choice.
The reality is that people aren’t just misled, they want to believe it’s over.
Denial is embraced."
"Evidence of mass illness is everywhere: workplace outbreaks, long-term sickness, cognitive issues, kids constantly sick.
This isn’t just propaganda, it’s denial by choice.
The reality is that people aren’t just misled, they want to believe it’s over.
Denial is embraced."
New risk assessment on hospital acquired #covid from @dfisman.bsky.social
1. Hospitals amplify and drive community infection not the other way around
2. Hospital acquired COVID has higher mortality rate than hospitalized community Covid
> Compared to patients with low likelihood of […]
1. Hospitals amplify and drive community infection not the other way around
2. Hospital acquired COVID has higher mortality rate than hospitalized community Covid
> Compared to patients with low likelihood of […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
August 1, 2025 at 1:48 PM
New risk assessment on hospital acquired #covid from @dfisman.bsky.social
1. Hospitals amplify and drive community infection not the other way around
2. Hospital acquired COVID has higher mortality rate than hospitalized community Covid
> Compared to patients with low likelihood of […]
1. Hospitals amplify and drive community infection not the other way around
2. Hospital acquired COVID has higher mortality rate than hospitalized community Covid
> Compared to patients with low likelihood of […]
New research finds #covid19 vaccination prior to infection does not affect the neurological symptoms of #LongCOVID
> researchers found that vaccination prior to COVID-19 infection did not significantly affect neurological symptoms in long COVID patients, both in patients who had a severe […]
> researchers found that vaccination prior to COVID-19 infection did not significantly affect neurological symptoms in long COVID patients, both in patients who had a severe […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
July 21, 2025 at 2:59 PM
New research finds #covid19 vaccination prior to infection does not affect the neurological symptoms of #LongCOVID
> researchers found that vaccination prior to COVID-19 infection did not significantly affect neurological symptoms in long COVID patients, both in patients who had a severe […]
> researchers found that vaccination prior to COVID-19 infection did not significantly affect neurological symptoms in long COVID patients, both in patients who had a severe […]
"taking a pessimistic view of probable outcomes as the baseline isn’t doomerism—it’s an informed updating of priors." - Prof Paul Musgrave
July 15, 2025 at 4:43 PM
"taking a pessimistic view of probable outcomes as the baseline isn’t doomerism—it’s an informed updating of priors." - Prof Paul Musgrave
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025
ONTARIO
HIGH (no change)
About 1 in every 118 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~5X higher
-Long COVID ~7X higher
-Hospitalizations ~6X higher
-Deaths ~5X higher
ONTARIO
HIGH (no change)
About 1 in every 118 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~5X higher
-Long COVID ~7X higher
-Hospitalizations ~6X higher
-Deaths ~5X higher
July 3, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 28-Jul 11, 2025
ONTARIO
HIGH (no change)
About 1 in every 118 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~5X higher
-Long COVID ~7X higher
-Hospitalizations ~6X higher
-Deaths ~5X higher
ONTARIO
HIGH (no change)
About 1 in every 118 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections ~5X higher
-Long COVID ~7X higher
-Hospitalizations ~6X higher
-Deaths ~5X higher
Reposted by Eric's Risk Assessment
Modeling flu and Covid out suggests a 0.04% IFR for covid, and also suggests we are still undercounting acute covid deaths to an extent.
June 10, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Modeling flu and Covid out suggests a 0.04% IFR for covid, and also suggests we are still undercounting acute covid deaths to an extent.
We continue to avoid the key lesson of #covid - we have to sanitize our exhaled waste air like we sanitized our food & water waste in the 19th century.
Until we centralize air sanitization into HVAC, we won't defeat airborne diseases like covid, flu & RSV. And many others.
ASHRAE has given us […]
Until we centralize air sanitization into HVAC, we won't defeat airborne diseases like covid, flu & RSV. And many others.
ASHRAE has given us […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
May 29, 2025 at 1:53 PM
We continue to avoid the key lesson of #covid - we have to sanitize our exhaled waste air like we sanitized our food & water waste in the 19th century.
Until we centralize air sanitization into HVAC, we won't defeat airborne diseases like covid, flu & RSV. And many others.
ASHRAE has given us […]
Until we centralize air sanitization into HVAC, we won't defeat airborne diseases like covid, flu & RSV. And many others.
ASHRAE has given us […]
NIOSH, the US agency that approves respiratory protective equipment, is now completely gone.
Nearly all of remaining staff at CDC's NIOSH received lay off notices today, we're told
This is an org chart shared with us illustrating eliminated divisions to date
Cuts had already upended approvals of new N95 respirators and probes of firefighter injuries
www.cbsnews.com/news/worker-...
This is an org chart shared with us illustrating eliminated divisions to date
Cuts had already upended approvals of new N95 respirators and probes of firefighter injuries
www.cbsnews.com/news/worker-...
May 3, 2025 at 6:48 AM
NIOSH, the US agency that approves respiratory protective equipment, is now completely gone.
All of #niosh respiratory & PPE organization is reported to be fired.
> Among the teams where "all employees" are expected to be impacted, ... the National Personal Protective Technology Laboratory, which is tasked with vetting and approving N95 respirators among other personal protective […]
> Among the teams where "all employees" are expected to be impacted, ... the National Personal Protective Technology Laboratory, which is tasked with vetting and approving N95 respirators among other personal protective […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
April 1, 2025 at 5:32 PM
All of #niosh respiratory & PPE organization is reported to be fired.
> Among the teams where "all employees" are expected to be impacted, ... the National Personal Protective Technology Laboratory, which is tasked with vetting and approving N95 respirators among other personal protective […]
> Among the teams where "all employees" are expected to be impacted, ... the National Personal Protective Technology Laboratory, which is tasked with vetting and approving N95 respirators among other personal protective […]
On this date, 5 years ago...
A pandemic was declared.
In two days, March 13, my work department will head home to work from home. I will never return to an office.
In 3 weeks, April 1, I will contract an unknown virus from my health care worker wife, who contracts it due to an inadequate & […]
A pandemic was declared.
In two days, March 13, my work department will head home to work from home. I will never return to an office.
In 3 weeks, April 1, I will contract an unknown virus from my health care worker wife, who contracts it due to an inadequate & […]
Original post on zeroes.ca
zeroes.ca
March 11, 2025 at 6:27 PM
On this date, 5 years ago...
A pandemic was declared.
In two days, March 13, my work department will head home to work from home. I will never return to an office.
In 3 weeks, April 1, I will contract an unknown virus from my health care worker wife, who contracts it due to an inadequate & […]
A pandemic was declared.
In two days, March 13, my work department will head home to work from home. I will never return to an office.
In 3 weeks, April 1, I will contract an unknown virus from my health care worker wife, who contracts it due to an inadequate & […]