JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
Scientist+Engineer. Infectious disease modeler. Posts and spelling mistakes my own
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JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
· Nov 19
❄️ Holiday Season Forecast:
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
🔹The wildest forecast I've ever made was for Dec 2021, predicting multiple millions of daily infections. This one is easily second place. A very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years, due to weak evolution and large summer numbers.
Flu "Variant K" appears to be expanding rapidly in the US as noted in BIOFIRE data. Confidence is increasing that this will be a bad flu season.
November 23, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Flu "Variant K" appears to be expanding rapidly in the US as noted in BIOFIRE data. Confidence is increasing that this will be a bad flu season.
A potentially concerning reassortment of HPAI H5N1 to H5N5 infected a man at his backyard bird farm in Washington state. He has since succumbed to the virus😔. No evidence of H-H transmission, but every roll of the dice creates more opportunities.
BREAKING: Man from Washington state dies after being infected with H5N5 bird flu
November 22, 2025 at 7:10 PM
A potentially concerning reassortment of HPAI H5N1 to H5N5 infected a man at his backyard bird farm in Washington state. He has since succumbed to the virus😔. No evidence of H-H transmission, but every roll of the dice creates more opportunities.
Nov 21st Update:
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
November 21, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Nov 21st Update:
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:
🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious
It's taken a full year for BA.3.2* to just get this far, but the 8 new sequences out of Germany makes me wonder if it has finally reached a turning point where it could move toward dominance over BA.2.86*.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
November 21, 2025 at 12:02 AM
It's taken a full year for BA.3.2* to just get this far, but the 8 new sequences out of Germany makes me wonder if it has finally reached a turning point where it could move toward dominance over BA.2.86*.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Up to maybe 10% in Germany. We'll have to continue to monitor this one.
Wow!! The X4 flare that just missed us to the right is clocking in above the May 2024 superstorm levels on our Stereo A 🛰!! Sustained -50 Bz
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
November 15, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Wow!! The X4 flare that just missed us to the right is clocking in above the May 2024 superstorm levels on our Stereo A 🛰!! Sustained -50 Bz
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
That is a brutal near miss of a superstorm that would have probably been visible in Mexico
Not going to say I called it, but not going to not say I called it.
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
November 14, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Not going to say I called it, but not going to not say I called it.
Despite the clouds, still had a decent view of the Northern Lights tonight!
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
November 13, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Despite the clouds, still had a decent view of the Northern Lights tonight!
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
Definitely better on camera tonight than to the eye.
What a great night!
November 12, 2025 at 4:13 AM
What a great night!
WOOOOOW
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
November 12, 2025 at 12:35 AM
WOOOOOW
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
THIS IS A HUGE SIGNAL, GET YOUR CAMERAS READY!
WOOOOOW!!
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
November 12, 2025 at 12:02 AM
WOOOOOW!!
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
GAME ON FOR TONIGHT! BZ APPROACHING -60
🔸️Early data suggests we could be in for a worse than normal flu season, brought on by a cluster of escape mutations in H3N2 this year that may lift the Re from 1.2 to 1.4. We are starting to see an uptick in the US. Data from BIOFIRE.
November 11, 2025 at 11:52 PM
🔸️Early data suggests we could be in for a worse than normal flu season, brought on by a cluster of escape mutations in H3N2 this year that may lift the Re from 1.2 to 1.4. We are starting to see an uptick in the US. Data from BIOFIRE.
💥A *MASSIVE* CME was launched early this morning with a predicted direct hit to earth tomorrow! 1300km/s would be an insanely fast impact.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
November 11, 2025 at 11:35 PM
💥A *MASSIVE* CME was launched early this morning with a predicted direct hit to earth tomorrow! 1300km/s would be an insanely fast impact.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
*IF* it has favorable polarity, we could see a superstorm similar to the two in 2024!
Get your cameras charged.
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
November 8, 2025 at 12:18 AM
This is one of the coolest visualizations I've seen of waves moving throughout the country over 2 years. Note the seasonal patterns in various states.
From Yale school of public health
From Yale school of public health
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
November 6, 2025 at 2:22 AM
BIOFIRE and WWScan both show the lowest readings since Pirola (BA.2.86*) swept two years ago.
We're in a good lull right now.
We're in a good lull right now.
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
November 5, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Will we have a G4 or G5 geomagnetic superstorm in the next week like we did twice in 2024?
Honestly? My gut says yes.
Honestly? My gut says yes.
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
November 5, 2025 at 5:29 PM
We have a solid CME coming our way, with expected impact tomorrow night into Friday!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
I don't think this activity is nearly done yet, we could be in for a lot of chances this next week or two!
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
November 4, 2025 at 11:34 PM
The sun is ULTRA active right now, two X flares today and multiple CMEs! While not directly pointed at earth, we might still see some impacts. I hope these ARs keep it up as they rotate toward earth!
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today
October 31, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Pretty dramatic damage to the vegetation in Western Jamaica is visible via zoom.earth satellite imagery.
October 22nd vs today
October 22nd vs today
GISAID is now blocking genomic sequencing access to critical resources like Nextstrain, Covspectrum, Outbreak-info, & others.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
Bad. No justification, no communication, no standard procedures for making changes—just arbitrary pronouncements cutting off access to some of the most valuable resources we have.
And now NextStrain as well.
Next up, will GISAID start charging open-source community tools to have access?
That would completely shaft users who contributed to GISAID, where we never agreed to that and assumed GISAID would be good custodians of the data we contributed. They're not.
Next up, will GISAID start charging open-source community tools to have access?
That would completely shaft users who contributed to GISAID, where we never agreed to that and assumed GISAID would be good custodians of the data we contributed. They're not.
October 30, 2025 at 10:53 PM
GISAID is now blocking genomic sequencing access to critical resources like Nextstrain, Covspectrum, Outbreak-info, & others.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
This makes us less safe, as live tracking of viral evolution remains critical for assessment of emerging threats. This needs to be escalated.
Defaulting to surgical masks in health care settings in 2025 is one of the most dissapointing examples of reluctance to change despite overwhelming evidence.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
October 30, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Defaulting to surgical masks in health care settings in 2025 is one of the most dissapointing examples of reluctance to change despite overwhelming evidence.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
Even defaulting to KN95 style would significantly increase protection of the most vulnerable.
Infuriating inertia in the HC industry.
Every optometrist's worst nightmare.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
Watch as it zooms all the way into the eye!
Melissa just broke a World record for the "driest" eye in any hurricane! Illustrates just how textbook this storm structure is... 1/
Melissa just broke a World record for the "driest" eye in any hurricane! Illustrates just how textbook this storm structure is... 1/
October 27, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Every optometrist's worst nightmare.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
Seriously though, this is not a world record you want to see broken less than a day before a predicted landfall.
The latest dropsondes into Hurricane Melissa shows ultra rapid intensification is underway. A drop of 8mb in only a couple hours down to 959mb, and eyewall wind speeds of 132mph suggests it's near Category 4 already. Wow
October 26, 2025 at 5:09 AM
The latest dropsondes into Hurricane Melissa shows ultra rapid intensification is underway. A drop of 8mb in only a couple hours down to 959mb, and eyewall wind speeds of 132mph suggests it's near Category 4 already. Wow
Hurricane Melissa is setting itself up to cause widespread damage in Jamaica over the coming days, with up to 40 inches of rain forecasted, followed by the possibility of a Category 4 or 5 landfall.
An awful outlook at the moment.
An awful outlook at the moment.
October 25, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Hurricane Melissa is setting itself up to cause widespread damage in Jamaica over the coming days, with up to 40 inches of rain forecasted, followed by the possibility of a Category 4 or 5 landfall.
An awful outlook at the moment.
An awful outlook at the moment.
We have two active data sets;
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
October 24, 2025 at 2:05 AM
We have two active data sets;
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.
🔹WWScan wastewater
🔸BIOFiRE positivity
Both suggest we are now near multi year lows for transmission. I'd expect this to last for another month before Thanksgiving gives it a boost up.