JPWeiland
jpweiland.bsky.social
JPWeiland
@jpweiland.bsky.social
Scientist+Engineer. Infectious disease modeler. Posts and spelling mistakes my own
BA.2.86 came out of the gate with ~45% advantage, and the addition of L455S within 6 weeks brought it to nearly 100%/wk.

BA.3.2 has been at ~10%/wk and has had a lot more time to find fitness advantages, but has yet to take off like BA.2.86 did.
November 21, 2025 at 12:02 AM
BA.2.86* (nicknamed Pirola) has had the longest reign without a major evolutionary shift. We're now approaching 2 full years.

WT ~10 months
Alpha ~6 months
Delta ~5 months
BA.1/2 ~7 months
BA.5 ~6 months
XBB ~11 months
BA.2.86 ~23+ months
November 21, 2025 at 12:02 AM
This is on top of two more expected to hit tonight. The first one was small, but the 2nd one expected later tonight looks bigger, so a late night chance tonight. But the main event looks like tomorrow.
November 11, 2025 at 11:37 PM
We had another one overnight that is sure to impact earth! I think it's going to keep going too 🤞
November 5, 2025 at 5:30 PM
If they can charge my insurance $20 for an aspirin, I think they can afford 50 cent masks. Probably significantly cheaper in bulk.
October 30, 2025 at 12:46 AM