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Jeff Berardelli

@weatherprof.bsky.social

23K followers 1K following 870 posts

Same @WeatherProf as Twitter. Posting about climate and weather. Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist WFLA NBC Tampa

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10d

Did you know Monster hurricanes generate 1000s of times the energy of the World’s most powerful nuclear bomb?!?
It’s true. But that energy is not wasted. Turns out hurricanes fulfill a vital function helping keep Earth livable. Here’s more… #hurricane #imelda #humberto #science #stem #fyp

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10h

But meanwhile as the developing storm clashes with a strong high over Maine, the strong pressure gradient will generate the potential for Hurricane force gusts along the shoreline, 30 ft waves offshore, and significant coastal flooding especially Sunday into Monday.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10h

2. The cranking coastal low will bring relief from our summer-like weather, spinning down crisp, cool fall-like weather!
So we Floridians benefit big time. 3/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10h

1. It strips the Caribbean of low pressure and moisture, pulling it north like a magnet, likely preventing a hurricane from eventually forming, at least for now. (In October you do NOT want low pressure and moisture just sitting down there for days. It’s combustible.) 2/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 10h

Intense coastal storm, a saving grace for Florida?! Here’s how…
The first major Nor’easter of the season is on tap for this weekend and the science on how this evolves is fascinating!
For Florida this is a saving grace X 2. Here’s why. 1/

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 19h

Picture how big the Hoover Dam is. An absolute unit. The Hoover Dam has a power capacity of 2 gigawatts (GW).

The solar farm that the Admin just cancelled could have produces 6.2 GW of power. That's more than 3 Hoover Dams.

jael holzman @jael.bsky.social · 19h

SCOOP: The Bureau of Land Management says the largest solar project in Nevada — the Esmeralda 7 mega-farm — has been canceled

The news was quietly dropped via a sudden website update with no public word from any of the companies involved or a statement from the agency

@heatmap.news

Esmeralda 7 Solar Project Has Been Canceled, BLM Says

It would have delivered a gargantuan 6.2 gigawatts of power.

heatmap.news

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 1d

That’s the definition of a humdinger!
It’s a high-end solution, no doubt. AM Euro run is bombs away w/ coastal gusts near hurricane force and 30 ft waves offshore. Hurricane-like eye! Big fall coastal flood threat, with long-lived onshore fetch, coming off Supermoon.
It may not verify this intense.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 1d

#Milton. A year ago. Images:
1. Winds (gusts 100+)
2. Rainfall (up to 20”)
3. 1-in-500 year rain event.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks!!

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

Big coastal low coming! Coastal flooding threat is a big concern.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

The jet stream will merge with low pressure over South FL and crank a coastal gale along the Carolina Coast this weekend. That will drive down much drier and even cooler air this weekend. The storm will get stuck for days, meaning the heat relief will last a solid 5+ days deep into next week!

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2d

“Refreshing” air on the way!Nothing signifies a season change like the first Coastal Storm of fall.
Right now the South is stuck under a heat dome. Another 100 heat index day in FL today! But that’s about come to an end. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 3d

T.S.#Jerry forms. Forecast to become a #hurricane. No threat to the US.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 3d

Up. Up. And away!
North Pacific water temps the past 15 years, with September 2025 being the cherry on the top (right) of the chart. @zacklabe.com is going to need a bigger Y axis!

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

Florida, are you ready for some heat relief?!?
While I can’t deliver cool air, “cool-ish” air is on the itinerary! :)
This weekend lows will drop into the 60s in Central FL, with 50s North. Humidity will take a big nose dive. All thanks to an early season Coastal Storm cranking off the Carolinas.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

2pm Update. No threats to Florida or the US as a whole.
But the northern Leeward Islands need to be on alert for later this week/ weekend.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

Lastly let’s talk about natural variability. The orientation of ocean surface temps in the Pacific this season certainly has a lot to do with the oscillation. But the spike in temps in recent years is the climate change signal.

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

Much of this is likely due to the unmasking of global warming from the decrease in aerosol pollution. This allows for more ocean heating from more direct sun getting through and reduction in clouds due to feedbacks. 4/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

How far “off the charts” is September 2025? Sea surface temps are in this area of the North Pacific. >1.6C or ~3F above normal on average over this huge area.
I’d say even more alarming than the actual anomaly is the trend since 2010. In 15 years the anomaly jumped more than 2F! 3/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

The dark purple also happens to correspond with areas that have been 5-8C (9 to 14 F) above normal at some point in the past few months. (Luckily there is little coral impacted as this alert level 5 is for surface water north of the coral zone. I imagine it has a big impact on other ocean life). 2/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 4d

The North Pacific heatwave these past few months has been astonishing. Take a look at the bottom of this image. It’s “accumulated heat stress” from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program. Basically the whole north basin registers Alert Level 5, dark purple. 1/

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 6d

I see. Ok. In climate circles we prefer to use the word understand, not believe, because science is not a religion.
So yes I do not like the word believe as it pertains to climate change.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 6d

Can you explain it to me, then? What am I misinterpreting?
That knowing the consensus only helps “a little”?

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

Hannah Daly @hannahdaly.ie · 8d

The best guess of climate experts at this Overshoot Conference is that - in an optimistic scenario - we return to 1.5C (where we are now) in 7 generations time.

That's about the same distance from now as the start of the Industrial Revolution.

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Reposted by Jeff Berardelli

Climate News @climatenews.bsky.social · 7d

New 12 min episode with high quality content about rapid hurricane intensification and its potential causes (AMOC strength, sulphur emissions, climate change).

@leonsimons.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social @weatherprof.bsky.social @bmcnoldy.bsky.social @rahmstorf.bsky.social

Full YouTube episode:

Is the U.S. Playing Russian Roulette with Hurricanes?

YouTube video by PBS Terra

youtu.be

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 7d

if it’s delayed -or- if a piece is left behind, then a track WNW towards the Gulf is possible in about two weeks.
Bottom line: While I can’t tell you exactly how strong and exactly where systems may track, I can give you a general overview of what needs to be watched to elucidate the pattern.