Eric Van Rythoven
@ericvanr.bsky.social
470 followers 890 following 100 posts
Writing and teaching on security, diplomacy, and emotion in global politics.
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I'll say one thing.

All the people harping on the importance of desire and fantasy in politics, especially the Lacanians--you were right. Please take the win.
kurc.com
From DHS. State Run Media.
The question raised by Miliband's blowup is to what extent UK elites will tolerate the threat posed by Musk?

UK elites could certainly chose to stop using X (and some certainly have), but most haven't. They want Musk's platform, but without his politics. But the two are inseparable.
I have longer discussion of Musk's reactionary politics in my recent article 'After Twitter' (link.springer.com/article/10.1...), but the TLDR is this:

Musk seeks to portray liberal democracies as ugly and undesirable, thereby sensitizing audiences to ideological alternatives.
Congratulations Andrew, looks great!
This is all the more galling for Canadians who have been told we deserve massive tariffs because our inaction in stemming fentanyl is killing millions of Americans.
bartenderhemry.bsky.social
Great time to be a fentanyl dealer because all the guys who are supposed to investigate and prosecute you are going after doordash drivers and moms instead
Despite Trump's promises to take a tougher approach to drug enforcement, even high-priority cases have stalled as a result, four officials familiar with the cases told Reuters. One prosecutor said a fentanyl investigation he supervised was at a standstill because the agents who were leading it had been ordered to focus on deportations instead. Another official said investigations of drug rings have been delayed.
I'll just say one more thing about the supposed decline of Right-Wing Violence.

Where do we think all these people went? Did the surge in ICE-related violence come from nowhere?

The likely answer is that right-wing extremists didn't disappear. The government just gave them a badge & a gun.
Also, maybe release your dataset to the public if you are going to make radical claims...

(If they have, please feel free to send me a link).
Lots of good critiques here, but I'll add one more.

Simply counting the number of attacks actually obscures quite a bit.

Coding Jan. 6th as 'one attack' which has equal weight to an attack by a single, isolated leftwing extremist is a massive misrepresentation of the level of violence.
Several diplomats and world leaders are likely mocking Trump's abysmal performance in private and behind closed doors.

To understand why, see my article on Backstage Mockery in Diplomacy in Global Studies Quarterly: academic.oup.com/isagsq/artic...
atrupar.com
Trump to the UN: "I'm really good at this stuff. Your countries are going to hell."
Reposted by Eric Van Rythoven
maxberger.bsky.social
If you hate political violence, you should hate Charlie Kirk.

He was not “practicing politics the right way”—he was a very well paid henchman for the same guys who are trying to make it illegal to oppose them.

He bussed people to J6. He encouraged political violence against his enemies.
Reposted by Eric Van Rythoven
owasow.bsky.social
“Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork among MAGA activists…We find [they] are not simply voters responding to policy preferences or culture-war appeals but are also participants in a social movement organized around a shared perception of lost honor, declining esteem, and institutional disrespect.”
The Symbolic Politics of Status in the MAGA Movement | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
The Symbolic Politics of Status in the MAGA Movement
www.cambridge.org
One problem with the Trump admin's plan to make life a "living hell" for US government employees is that it makes espionage operations a lot easier.

If you employer hates you and is actively trying to make you "miserable," why wouldn't you want to take money from foreign governments?
jessmarindavis.bsky.social
The small amounts of $$ involved in espionage never cease to amaze me. "Schena traveled to Peru in August 2024 and was paid $10,000 and provided with an Apple cellphone to be used for sending documents and other tasks for his Chinese handlers."

www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/se...
State Department official sentenced for selling secrets to China
A State Department official was sentenced to four years in prison for selling secrets to the Chinese government, the Justice Department said Thursday.
www.washingtontimes.com
The year is 2047.

Endnote asks if I want to send a Haiku of recognition to the author I just cited. Microsoft word's AI is begging me to use just one space after the period (I decline).

TikTok reminds me that it is time to record my 12-second referee report. I nod and get ready to scream...
Among a long list of failures in the last twenty years was the failure to permanently stigmatize the worst members of the Bush administration.

I mean, you presided over the worst foreign policy disaster in decades, and you get a cushy stream of high-profile op-eds and speaking engagements...
chrsjcksn.bsky.social
Fear not, prestigious publications continue to platform John Bolton…(?)
economist.com
America and its allies have “much to do, and quickly, to counter the rising threats from China and Russia” in the Arctic, writes John Bolton. In a guest essay he explains what is at stake econ.st/4mKUPlv

Illustration: Dan Williams
The irony of this is that governments and consultants are going all-in on AI just as GPT5's launch was an abject failure, AI companies are hemorrhaging money, and concerns are growing that these companies are wildly overvalued.
ldobsonhughes.bsky.social
I’m seeing GR pitches that present AI as some sort of omniscient super brain. They explicitly say AI makes more insightful, strategic decisions about policy, makes connections the human brain can’t, and delivers a better public policy campaign than humans
Anyways, I planned to read the report in closer detail.

But I have to pick up my son this afternoon because his summer camp is closing...because of extreme heat.

All the economic that it helped generated is over for the day, and a bunch of parents need to stop working.
The report talks about "trade offs", but frames this a difference between the costs of reducing emissions, and an imagined future where we don't reduce emissions *and* don't have to pay any economic price for climate change.
But, the report fails to model any of the actual costs of climate change into its accounting.
The Hub is running a very typical story on the report:
Reposted by Eric Van Rythoven
benansell.bsky.social
Since I made the fatal error of being nice about LLMs on here, here’s @garymarcus.bsky.social on the letdown so far of ChatGPT5.

This was a big moment for OpenAI and so far a dud. Since US economy is largely being kept afloat by AI investment, this could be inflection point. Hold onto your hats.
GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.
A new release botched … and a breaking research new paper that spells trouble
garymarcus.substack.com
I asked gpt5 for 5 academic sources on a simple prompt and received 5/5 hallucinations.

I guess my question is whether this is going to do anything to puncture the hype bubble.
dovlevin.bsky.social
If this is what Sam Altman considers Ph.D level AI (an AI that does basic 8th grade math mistakes) I expect his ASI/Machine god when invented to have the intelligence of an average 100 IQ human at most...

www.bbc.com/news/article...
Most notably, the Conservatives do not seem to blame the Liberals for failing to reach a deal, but instead make a call for unity (sort of).

Six months ago would be very different, and it feels like the politics of blame is shifting.
journodale.bsky.social
I don't know about you, but somehow I don't think that "America is mean, so let's obliterate our environmental laws" is a very viable long-term strategy, especially if we want to get more access to European markets.
Conservatives Will Help Get A Deal

August 1, 2025
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Ottawa, ON – The Hon. Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, released the following statement on trade negotiations with the United States:

“Conservatives share Canadians' disappointment that a deal with the United States was not reached by the August 1st deadline. Canada faces more U.S. tariffs than ever before, and we stand united with all workers facing devastation from unjustified tariffs on steel, aluminum, softwood, auto and agriculture. These deeply misguided policies will hurt families and businesses on both sides of the border.

“Conservatives call for policies to take back control of our economic future by breaking our dependence on the U.S. We call on the Liberals to repeal their anti-development laws, and cut taxes on work, energy, investment and home building to make our economy strong, self-reliant and sovereign. We will always put Canada first by working with all parties to get a deal that ends the tariffs and protects our sovereignty.”
Lukewarm take: I think most Canadians support this.

The US is probably seeking an intensely one-sided deal, and Canada said no. Canadians sees the US as negotiating in bad faith, and any perceived capitulation risks domestic backlash.
mark-carney.bsky.social
My statement on Canada-U.S. trade:
Statement by Prime Minister Carney on Canada-U.S. trade.