Elliot Serbin
@eserbin.bsky.social
International law, wmd nonpro/disarmament, all things nuclear
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
DOJ just published a redacted version of the OLC memo justifying the Administration’s campaign/attacks in Venezuela and capture of Maduro:
www.justice.gov
January 13, 2026 at 9:50 PM
DOJ just published a redacted version of the OLC memo justifying the Administration’s campaign/attacks in Venezuela and capture of Maduro:
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
I hope Sue Biniaz’s take (and she is in a position to know these things having worked on the issues a long time at State) that the US could rejoin the UNFCCC easily, is what happens. I also hope thar groups litigate the withdrawal as well though am less confident that would win in court.
"Because the U.S. entered the UNFCCC with advice and consent of the Senate in 1992, it’s our legal view that it also must be exited using the same process in reciprocation... Letting this lawless move stand could shut the U.S. out of climate diplomacy forever"
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
Trump withdrawal from bedrock UN climate treaty raises legal questions
Trump said that the U.S. would withdraw from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
www.reuters.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:37 PM
I hope Sue Biniaz’s take (and she is in a position to know these things having worked on the issues a long time at State) that the US could rejoin the UNFCCC easily, is what happens. I also hope thar groups litigate the withdrawal as well though am less confident that would win in court.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
1/ Trump's War Powers Report to Congress on the #Venezuela strikes and seizure of #Maduro is in.
I've read/coded every WPR report and used to work on them in the White House. (See this searchable database & graphics warpowers.lawandsecurity.org/%F0%9F%91%87)
Here's what stands out about this one🧵:
I've read/coded every WPR report and used to work on them in the White House. (See this searchable database & graphics warpowers.lawandsecurity.org/%F0%9F%91%87)
Here's what stands out about this one🧵:
January 6, 2026 at 5:52 AM
1/ Trump's War Powers Report to Congress on the #Venezuela strikes and seizure of #Maduro is in.
I've read/coded every WPR report and used to work on them in the White House. (See this searchable database & graphics warpowers.lawandsecurity.org/%F0%9F%91%87)
Here's what stands out about this one🧵:
I've read/coded every WPR report and used to work on them in the White House. (See this searchable database & graphics warpowers.lawandsecurity.org/%F0%9F%91%87)
Here's what stands out about this one🧵:
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
Glad to talk with Wolf Blitzer @cnn-news.bsky.social about Trump's illegal intervention in Venezuela.
January 4, 2026 at 9:52 PM
Glad to talk with Wolf Blitzer @cnn-news.bsky.social about Trump's illegal intervention in Venezuela.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
The notion that the US military incursion into Venezuela and seizure of its leader wasn't a use of force under int'l law b/c it was a "law enforcement operation" is absurd.
In prior US military-LE capture ops abroad, USG definitely viewed such actions as uses of force under int'l law.
From 2014.
In prior US military-LE capture ops abroad, USG definitely viewed such actions as uses of force under int'l law.
From 2014.
January 4, 2026 at 11:09 PM
The notion that the US military incursion into Venezuela and seizure of its leader wasn't a use of force under int'l law b/c it was a "law enforcement operation" is absurd.
In prior US military-LE capture ops abroad, USG definitely viewed such actions as uses of force under int'l law.
From 2014.
In prior US military-LE capture ops abroad, USG definitely viewed such actions as uses of force under int'l law.
From 2014.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
Jack writes--correctly--that the military abduction and extraction of Maduro "pretty clearly isn’t" legal. It plainly violates Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which is the supreme law of the United States (per Art. VI of the Constitution) and, as I've explained elsewhere, ... [1]
January 4, 2026 at 12:02 AM
Jack writes--correctly--that the military abduction and extraction of Maduro "pretty clearly isn’t" legal. It plainly violates Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which is the supreme law of the United States (per Art. VI of the Constitution) and, as I've explained elsewhere, ... [1]
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
"his [Trump's] plan appears to be for Venezuela to remain under the day-to-day rule of a senior chavista, with its democratically elected leaders excluded and its wealth controlled by American corporations." www.economist.com/the-americas...
Donald Trump wants to run Venezuela, and dominate the western hemisphere
Snatching Nicolás Maduro and attempting to take control of Venezuela and its oil is an extraordinary display of the new “Donroe doctrine”
www.economist.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:48 PM
"his [Trump's] plan appears to be for Venezuela to remain under the day-to-day rule of a senior chavista, with its democratically elected leaders excluded and its wealth controlled by American corporations." www.economist.com/the-americas...
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address.
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
January 3, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address.
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it.
1/
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
It's crystal clear: a pending criminal indictment does NOT cure the clear illegality of this attack under int'l law. It violated the UN Charter in just the same way Russia's attack on Ukraine did. And unlike our 1989 Panama invasion, there seems not even a pretense of a threat to Americans there.
Vance pushes back and says this was not illegal, arguing "Maduro has multiple indictments in the United States for narcoterrorism. You don't get to avoid justice for drug trafficking in the United States because you live in a palace in Caracas."
January 3, 2026 at 4:13 PM
It's crystal clear: a pending criminal indictment does NOT cure the clear illegality of this attack under int'l law. It violated the UN Charter in just the same way Russia's attack on Ukraine did. And unlike our 1989 Panama invasion, there seems not even a pretense of a threat to Americans there.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
I wrote about unit self defense in this piece in a very different context. It’s always been a slippery slope. But whatever the contours, unit self defense is not an available defense to invading a country without legal cause. A state can’t use it to backfill a defense to their armed attack.
Legally Sliding into War
"We need to grapple with the legal mechanisms through which presidential administration after administration has legally justified escalating, elongating, and expanding conflicts over the last two dec...
www.justsecurity.org
January 3, 2026 at 11:08 AM
I wrote about unit self defense in this piece in a very different context. It’s always been a slippery slope. But whatever the contours, unit self defense is not an available defense to invading a country without legal cause. A state can’t use it to backfill a defense to their armed attack.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
A scorched boat washed ashore on a remote beach in Colombia. Then mangled bodies. And then empty packets, a few with marijuana traces. We matched the physical and digital evidence to a U.S. airstrike — and found a fishing community terrified to go to sea. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/w...
Grim Evidence of Trump’s Airstrikes Washes Ashore on a Colombian Peninsula
www.nytimes.com
December 30, 2025 at 11:58 PM
A scorched boat washed ashore on a remote beach in Colombia. Then mangled bodies. And then empty packets, a few with marijuana traces. We matched the physical and digital evidence to a U.S. airstrike — and found a fishing community terrified to go to sea. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/w...
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
“Like Prime, but with human beings.”
December 24, 2025 at 5:42 PM
“Like Prime, but with human beings.”
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
Complete abdication of responsibility by Senator Wicker:
1) The most basic Qs about the campaign - on legality and strategy - are unanswered.
Start with what acts constitute an “armed attack” or justify the existence of an armed conflict?
Which 24 cartels & gangs are we supposedly at war with?
1) The most basic Qs about the campaign - on legality and strategy - are unanswered.
Start with what acts constitute an “armed attack” or justify the existence of an armed conflict?
Which 24 cartels & gangs are we supposedly at war with?
December 19, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Complete abdication of responsibility by Senator Wicker:
1) The most basic Qs about the campaign - on legality and strategy - are unanswered.
Start with what acts constitute an “armed attack” or justify the existence of an armed conflict?
Which 24 cartels & gangs are we supposedly at war with?
1) The most basic Qs about the campaign - on legality and strategy - are unanswered.
Start with what acts constitute an “armed attack” or justify the existence of an armed conflict?
Which 24 cartels & gangs are we supposedly at war with?
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
The United States and Russia continue to sanction and threaten ICC judges.
Just disgraceful.
Just disgraceful.
December 18, 2025 at 6:40 PM
The United States and Russia continue to sanction and threaten ICC judges.
Just disgraceful.
Just disgraceful.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
"There is growing concern ... that in 2029 the ICC will turn its attention to the president, to the vice president, to the secretary of war and others, and pursue prosecutions against them."
I believe this is referred to as consciousness of guilt.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
I believe this is referred to as consciousness of guilt.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
Exclusive: US threatens new ICC sanctions unless court pledges not to prosecute Trump
President Donald Trump's administration wants the International Criminal Court to amend its founding document to ensure it does not investigate the Republican president and his top officials, a Trump ...
www.reuters.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:41 PM
"There is growing concern ... that in 2029 the ICC will turn its attention to the president, to the vice president, to the secretary of war and others, and pursue prosecutions against them."
I believe this is referred to as consciousness of guilt.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
I believe this is referred to as consciousness of guilt.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
at a certain point we will move beyond the "war crimes" debate, since there is no war, and into a "murder" debate that asks not just whether these are individual murders but whether they are widespread & systematic attacks on civilians and thus constitute crimes against humanity.
Excellent reporting from @charliesavage.bsky.social and @julianbarnes.bsky.social starting with the "plain reality" that there was no warship, and no fighting going on, in the Sept. 2 strike, or any of them:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/u...
1/2
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/u...
1/2
December 6, 2025 at 12:07 AM
at a certain point we will move beyond the "war crimes" debate, since there is no war, and into a "murder" debate that asks not just whether these are individual murders but whether they are widespread & systematic attacks on civilians and thus constitute crimes against humanity.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
How is U.S. military killing these 11 people keeping drugs (fentanyl) out of the United States?
USG knew the drugs (cocaine) were headed to Suriname.
Yes, that's the OTHER DIRECTION.
Read what Bradley-Caine told lawmakers:
Scoop by @natashabertrand.bsky.social
🧵 1/
USG knew the drugs (cocaine) were headed to Suriname.
Yes, that's the OTHER DIRECTION.
Read what Bradley-Caine told lawmakers:
Scoop by @natashabertrand.bsky.social
🧵 1/
Exclusive: Boat at center of double-tap strike controversy was meeting vessel headed to Suriname, admiral told lawmakers | CNN Politics
The alleged drug traffickers killed by the US military in a strike on September 2 were heading to link up with another, larger vessel that was bound for Suriname — a small South American country east ...
www.cnn.com
December 5, 2025 at 10:11 PM
How is U.S. military killing these 11 people keeping drugs (fentanyl) out of the United States?
USG knew the drugs (cocaine) were headed to Suriname.
Yes, that's the OTHER DIRECTION.
Read what Bradley-Caine told lawmakers:
Scoop by @natashabertrand.bsky.social
🧵 1/
USG knew the drugs (cocaine) were headed to Suriname.
Yes, that's the OTHER DIRECTION.
Read what Bradley-Caine told lawmakers:
Scoop by @natashabertrand.bsky.social
🧵 1/
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
The Trump administration has quietly released its National Security Strategy — apparently late on Thursday. Usually there's a rollout and fanfare for these things: www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
www.whitehouse.gov
December 5, 2025 at 4:48 AM
The Trump administration has quietly released its National Security Strategy — apparently late on Thursday. Usually there's a rollout and fanfare for these things: www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
This really lays bare how absurd the manufactured war theory is:
A shipwrecked survivor of a Hellfire missile strike on his small burning vessel is supposed to do... what, exactly, to show he is not "in the fight"?
When there is no war, applying the law of war is an exercise in absurdity.
1/2
A shipwrecked survivor of a Hellfire missile strike on his small burning vessel is supposed to do... what, exactly, to show he is not "in the fight"?
When there is no war, applying the law of war is an exercise in absurdity.
1/2
December 3, 2025 at 11:33 PM
This really lays bare how absurd the manufactured war theory is:
A shipwrecked survivor of a Hellfire missile strike on his small burning vessel is supposed to do... what, exactly, to show he is not "in the fight"?
When there is no war, applying the law of war is an exercise in absurdity.
1/2
A shipwrecked survivor of a Hellfire missile strike on his small burning vessel is supposed to do... what, exactly, to show he is not "in the fight"?
When there is no war, applying the law of war is an exercise in absurdity.
1/2
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
8/ A public service reminder:
This entire exercise is an absurd, imaginary world for legal experts.
That's because the truth is:
It's not an armed conflict.
The laws of war thus don't apply.
The more restrictive rules of human rights apply.
It's extrajudicial killing under that law.
This entire exercise is an absurd, imaginary world for legal experts.
That's because the truth is:
It's not an armed conflict.
The laws of war thus don't apply.
The more restrictive rules of human rights apply.
It's extrajudicial killing under that law.
December 4, 2025 at 2:34 AM
8/ A public service reminder:
This entire exercise is an absurd, imaginary world for legal experts.
That's because the truth is:
It's not an armed conflict.
The laws of war thus don't apply.
The more restrictive rules of human rights apply.
It's extrajudicial killing under that law.
This entire exercise is an absurd, imaginary world for legal experts.
That's because the truth is:
It's not an armed conflict.
The laws of war thus don't apply.
The more restrictive rules of human rights apply.
It's extrajudicial killing under that law.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
6/ This next point gets deeper into some legal weeds, but law of war experts will know exactly what I mean.
The fact that the DOJ/USG wants to call these cocaine boats legitimate "war-sustaining" military targets, makes this new explanation fall apart.
The fact that the DOJ/USG wants to call these cocaine boats legitimate "war-sustaining" military targets, makes this new explanation fall apart.
December 4, 2025 at 2:30 AM
6/ This next point gets deeper into some legal weeds, but law of war experts will know exactly what I mean.
The fact that the DOJ/USG wants to call these cocaine boats legitimate "war-sustaining" military targets, makes this new explanation fall apart.
The fact that the DOJ/USG wants to call these cocaine boats legitimate "war-sustaining" military targets, makes this new explanation fall apart.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
One reason to eschew the term "war crime" for the September 2nd maritime attack is that the Trump admin claims (likely falsely) that the people aboard the boat were members of Tren de Aragua.
USG's bogus claims about armed conflict with TdA also feed narrative for using the Alien Enemies Act.
USG's bogus claims about armed conflict with TdA also feed narrative for using the Alien Enemies Act.
December 2, 2025 at 6:55 PM
One reason to eschew the term "war crime" for the September 2nd maritime attack is that the Trump admin claims (likely falsely) that the people aboard the boat were members of Tren de Aragua.
USG's bogus claims about armed conflict with TdA also feed narrative for using the Alien Enemies Act.
USG's bogus claims about armed conflict with TdA also feed narrative for using the Alien Enemies Act.
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
Former US military lawyers speak out:
"The Former JAGs Working Group unanimously considers both the giving and the execution of these orders, if true, to constitute war crimes, murder, or both."
Statement on Media Reports of Pentagon “No Quarter” Orders in Caribbean Boat Strikes
1/2
"The Former JAGs Working Group unanimously considers both the giving and the execution of these orders, if true, to constitute war crimes, murder, or both."
Statement on Media Reports of Pentagon “No Quarter” Orders in Caribbean Boat Strikes
1/2
November 29, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Former US military lawyers speak out:
"The Former JAGs Working Group unanimously considers both the giving and the execution of these orders, if true, to constitute war crimes, murder, or both."
Statement on Media Reports of Pentagon “No Quarter” Orders in Caribbean Boat Strikes
1/2
"The Former JAGs Working Group unanimously considers both the giving and the execution of these orders, if true, to constitute war crimes, murder, or both."
Statement on Media Reports of Pentagon “No Quarter” Orders in Caribbean Boat Strikes
1/2
Reposted by Elliot Serbin
Harvard Law School’s Jack Goldsmith:
“In short, if the Post’s facts are correct, it appears that Special Operations Forces committed murder when the ‘two men were blown apart in the water, as the Post put it.’”
open.substack.com/pub/executiv...
“In short, if the Post’s facts are correct, it appears that Special Operations Forces committed murder when the ‘two men were blown apart in the water, as the Post put it.’”
open.substack.com/pub/executiv...
November 29, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Harvard Law School’s Jack Goldsmith:
“In short, if the Post’s facts are correct, it appears that Special Operations Forces committed murder when the ‘two men were blown apart in the water, as the Post put it.’”
open.substack.com/pub/executiv...
“In short, if the Post’s facts are correct, it appears that Special Operations Forces committed murder when the ‘two men were blown apart in the water, as the Post put it.’”
open.substack.com/pub/executiv...