Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
32K followers 600 following 2K posts
ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Study Hall, 50 Best* and Forward Progress). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
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espnbillc.bsky.social
Hello, friends. It's FORWARD PROGRESS DAY.

"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.

www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football
Amazon.com: Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football: 9781637278703: Connelly, Bill: Books
www.amazon.com
espnbillc.bsky.social
Ha, they were literally 21st. I was surprised too.
espnbillc.bsky.social
25 years ago, Oklahoma crushed Texas on the way to one of college football's most unexpected national titles. But how unexpected was it? I ranked the 20 most surprising title runs, from Jimbo's Noles to Murray Warmath's 2-loss Gophers.

www.espn.com/college-foot...
The 2000 Sooners and 19 other unlikely champions
OU's 2000 title team came out of nowhere to win it all. Honoring their 25th anniversary, we look at other surprising champs.
www.espn.com
espnbillc.bsky.social
Harvard and Tarleton both adding a little something new to the top of the rankings. Well, the top of the non-NDSU rankings anyway.
espnbillc.bsky.social
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 7

* No. 1 vs. No. 3 this week!
* LSU -121 Centenary
* Tenn Tech -2 UNC 😑
* West Florida -2 MTSU
* Your new No. 766 after a 62-7 loss to No. 595? The NEC Nor'easters! In 3 weeks: No. 766 vs. No. 765 for ALL THE TOP 766 MARBLES

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
espnbillc.bsky.social
I’m not in charge of FPI.
espnbillc.bsky.social
The ~90 of you hanging out in the doc have already noticed, but I made a tweak to SP+ to account for it suddenly picking nothing but Unders. Scoring curve was off a bit on the defensive ratings. Will get the website updated soon, but The Spreadsheet's changed.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Bill Connelly
espnbillc.bsky.social
* Penn State's all-in season is just about over
* Lagway outdueled Arch
* Turnovers wrecked the script in Tuscaloosa and Tallahassee
* Damn near Tech vs. the Field in the Big 12
* SP+ movers! This week's Heisman winner! MULTIPLE HAIL MARY-ISH ENDINGS!

WEEK 6 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
How shocking upsets and near misses of Week 6 impact conference, CFP races
How bleak are things for Penn State and Texas? What's next in the ACC and Big 12? Bill Connelly has answers.
www.espn.com
espnbillc.bsky.social
WEEK 7 SP+ PICKS

Ducks 28, Hoosiers 22
OU 24, Texas 17 (no injury adjustment!)
Mizzou 26, Bama 24!
Buckeyes 31, Illini 19
A&M 28, Florida 18
Georgia 26, Auburn 21
USC 29, Michigan 25
FSU 27, Pitt 23
Irish 37, NC St 19
BYU 24, Arizona 21

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
espnbillc.bsky.social
He was good on Saturday, but still ... A++ photo selection by my editor in this one...
espnbillc.bsky.social
* Penn State's all-in season is just about over
* Lagway outdueled Arch
* Turnovers wrecked the script in Tuscaloosa and Tallahassee
* Damn near Tech vs. the Field in the Big 12
* SP+ movers! This week's Heisman winner! MULTIPLE HAIL MARY-ISH ENDINGS!

WEEK 6 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
How shocking upsets and near misses of Week 6 impact conference, CFP races
How bleak are things for Penn State and Texas? What's next in the ACC and Big 12? Bill Connelly has answers.
www.espn.com
espnbillc.bsky.social
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+:

Texas Tech 36.3%
Ohio State 32.9%
Memphis 29.4%
Oregon 26.2%
Miami 25.2%
North Texas 22.7%
Indiana 13.8%
Ole Miss 8.6%
UNLV 4.2%
Texas A&M 3.6%
Oklahoma 3.0%
Georgia Tech 2.7%
Mizzou 2.2%
BYU 1.0%
Navy 0.5%
espnbillc.bsky.social
Ha, as soon as I finish my Sunday column.
espnbillc.bsky.social
And their resume rating is now -14.1.
espnbillc.bsky.social
Don't forget the seven-point loss penalty.
espnbillc.bsky.social
The CFP based solely on *Résumé SP+* after 6 weeks:

9 Texas A&M at 8 Mizzou
-- 1 Indiana

12 Alabama at 5 Miami
-- 4 Texas Tech

11 BYU at 6 Oklahoma
-- 3 Oregon

10 Memphis at 7 Ole Miss
-- 2 Ohio State
a mascot wearing a cowboy hat and gloves with a t on his belt
ALT: a mascot wearing a cowboy hat and gloves with a t on his belt
media.tenor.com
espnbillc.bsky.social
It would be great if at some point I could stop spelling Julian Sayin's last name S-A-Y-I-N-G-[backspace], since I'm going to be typing it a lot in the next couple of months.
espnbillc.bsky.social
As soon as the blocked punt happened, I assumed PSU would win by 14. And then the defense stopped defending again.
espnbillc.bsky.social
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 6:
UVA > Louisville 10.1%
App St > Oregon St 12.4%
Navy > Air Force 38.4%
Ball St > Ohio 41.3%
Ark St > TXST 42.9%
Temple > UTSA 47.8%

Btw: UCLA > PSU 57.8%

Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2025 SP+
docs.google.com
Reposted by Bill Connelly
sickoscommittee.org
D2 Harding beats East Central 65-0 while rushing for 475 yards and passing for 9.
espnbillc.bsky.social
Ooooooof, Texas State. Bobcats allowed 183 yards to Arkansas State in three quarters, then gave up 215 yards in the fourth, blew three separate leads and are about to lose 31-30 because they missed a PAT with a minute left (and ASU drove down and scored with 7 seconds left).