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Eugenio Paglino

@eugeniopaglino.bsky.social

1.8K followers 2.1K following 71 posts

Data Scientist and Postdoc at @pophel.bsky.social. PhD in Demography and Sociology at UPenn, Statistics MA at Wharton. My research focuses on mortality determinants and trends. Bayesian statistics, forecasting, statistical modeling.

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025

This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.

jamanetwork.com

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 6h

🚨🚨 We are hiring 2 postdocs at PopHel – MaxHel. If you are interested in health inequalities and social determinants of health this is a great opportunity! Amazing working environment ✨, unique data infrastructure, and a truly interdisciplinary and international center 🌍. Deadline October 31st.

Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health @pophel.bsky.social · 1d

🚨Job alert!🚨

Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health is recruiting 2 postdocs. Join our team and investigate social inequalities in health!

jobs.helsinki.fi/job/Helsinki...

#postdoc #demography #socialsciences #socialdata

Two Postdoctoral Researchers on Health Inequalities

jobs.helsinki.fi

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 21d

Had a great experience ⭐ at #SLLS2025! I hope we gave a good overview of what is possible with the amazing Finnish 🇫🇮 register data! @pophel.bsky.social @sllshome.bsky.social

Helsinki Institute for Demography and Population Health @pophel.bsky.social · 21d

Our symposium from #SLLS2025 @sllshome.bsky.social consisted of research from Shubh Sharma @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social @olivia-mcevoy.bsky.social mcevoy.bsky.social @moberndorfer.bsky.social orfer.bsky.social Lauren Bishop and registry data expertise from Hanna Remes.
Thanks to all who attended!

Reposted by Eugenio Paglino

JAMA @jama.com · Aug 6

An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking.

ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles
Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

It would be great to see more work 📄 filling these gaps and extending this approach to other events, contributing to improve our understanding of the short- and long-term impacts of different natural disasters on mortality and other health outcomes #publichealth #demography #Demography

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

While our study is an important first step, we could not look into which groups were more severely affected, e.g. by socioeconomic status or neighbourhood, we only looked at the first 4 weeks, and we only considered mortality rather than including other health outcomes

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

Demographers could play an important role in this area by leveraging their expertise on mortality data and modeling to make estimates like the ones in our paper available for other natural disasters

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

The contrast between 30 direct fatalities and >400 excess deaths underscores the importance of complementing cause-of-death investigation (to identify direct deaths) with techniques more suited to capture both direct and indirect mortality impacts of wildfires and other natural disasters

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

We find that mortality was higher 📈 than expected in the first four weeks after the wildfires (440 more deaths than expected). We performed several sensitivity analyses to rule out other mechanisms

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

In this work with @astokespop.bsky.social and Rafeya Raquib at @busph.bsky.social , we use mortality models to estimate expected deaths 📈 in the absence of the wildfires. We then compare observed and expected deaths to quantify how many excess deaths ☠️ are likely attributable to the wildfires🔥

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Aug 11

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025

This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.

jamanetwork.com

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

But of course future can't explain the past, so if the slowdown appeared much earlier in some state-metro combinations, then other mechanisms have to be responsible 8/8🧵

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

Beyond demographic curiosity, these findings have implications for how we think about explaining the US mortality stagnation. If 2010 or 2014 are meaningful thresholds then explanations focusing on what happened shortly before (e.g. the Great Recession) seem more plausible 7/8🧵

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

For example, female mortality showed very little improvement past 2005 in Iowa and Kansas. At the same time, metropolitan counties in California, Texas, and New York show only moderate slowdowns in mortality declines over the entire period 6/8🧵

State-level trends in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan mortality by sex in the United States (1999-2019)

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

Another interesting finding is that while nationally mortality declines have slowed down starting in 2010, and stagnated after 2014, these are not obvious thresholds at the state-metro level 5/8🧵

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

Even in the late 2010s, 8 states had lower female and male mortality in nonmetropolitan than metropolitan areas, highlighting that national-level trends and patterns can hide significant heterogeneity 4/8🧵

Deviations of state mortality from the national US average for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties by state. The graph shows that although generally metropolitan areas increasingly experienced lower-than-average mortality, nonmetropolitan areas fell behind and experienced higher-than-average mortality. However, at the same time, significant regional variation remains.

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

While we are accustomed to think of a nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage, we show that in the early 2000s 19 states for females and 10 for males had lower mortality in nonmetropolitan than in metropolitan areas 3/8🧵

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

This is a descriptive study (with publicly available data) but I think it shows that deep description of a phenomenon can provide valuable insights even if it does not directly explore explanations for the observed patterns 2/8🧵

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 24

As promised, here a summary of our newest paper on metropolitan and nonmetropolitan mortality in the US 1/8🧵
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... @astokespop.bsky.social @pennpsc.bsky.social @pophel.bsky.social @ruralhealth.bsky.social @jruralhealth.bsky.social

Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019

Purpose To examine disparities in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan mortality by state and sex from 1999 to 2019. Methods We calculate age-standardized mortality rates for nonmetropolitan and metro...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 20

Studies like the one by Jacob Bor and colleagues are of great help in quantifying the extent of misreporting and the detailed misclassification ratios they report that can be applied by other teams that do not have access to the restricted ACS-NVSS linked data

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 20

Survey data linked with mortality records are great but 1) publicly available data is limited (NHIS, NHANES, some NLMS), 2) sample sizes are small and a lot of spatial and temporal granularity is lost, and 3) linkages with vital statistics are updated with long delays (NHIS now goes to 2019)

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 20

We faced a similar problem with the reporting of education on death certificates (and developed an potential solution) but there are few general purpose strategies that would work for all characteristics reported on death certificates jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Diverging Mortality Trends by Educational Attainment in the US

This cross-sectional study examines trends in US mortality rates by sex and educational attainment before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

jamanetwork.com

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 20

This greatly limits the availability of official mortality statistics for AI/AN populations and is of course a barrier to tackling existing inequalities (since we can't even measure them!)

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 20

Very important work by Jacob Bor and colleagues. Poor data quality of demographic and socioeconomic information on death certificates remains a big obstacle to the production of timely mortality statistics disaggregated by more than age, sex, and selected race and Hispanic origin groups.

JAMA Health Forum @jamahealthforum.com · Jun 17

From <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:q5ogl3twkcqyhvz4zebonw3z" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@jama.com: The life expectancy of American Indian and Alaska Native individuals is underestimated due to racial misclassification on death certificates, according to this longitudinal cohort study.

ja.ma/447kyg5

The life expectancy of American Indian and Alaska Native individuals is underestimated

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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 17

Thank you! Your Demography article 📖 was a big inspiration read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

Research Note Showing That the Rural Mortality Penalty Varies by Region, Race, and Ethnicity in the United States, 1999–2016 | Demography | Duke University Press

read.dukeupress.edu

Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · Jun 17

New (core demography) paper on US metropolitan and nonmetropolitan mortality out in the Journal of Rural Health. Stay tuned for a thread 🧵summarising the key findings!
#Demography

Journal of Rural Health @jruralhealth.bsky.social · Jun 17

Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999-2019 from @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social et al. #RuralHealth onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019

Purpose To examine disparities in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan mortality by state and sex from 1999 to 2019. Methods We calculate age-standardized mortality rates for nonmetropolitan and metro...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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