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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

You can read a longer post about this also on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/posts/fabian...

📣 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐳𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞? 🔥🌎 👉 Find out in my open access… | Fabian Dablander

📣 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐳𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐝𝐞? 🔥🌎 👉 Find out in my open access article published today in 𝘌𝘯𝘷𝘪𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘓𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴: https://lnkd.in/daq...

www.linkedin.com

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

While there are a number of limitations to this analysis, which I discuss in the paper, these findings provide robust global evidence that personal experience with climate-related hazards is associated with increased climate risk perception.

Read it all here: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

There is marked variation between countries, and this appears to differ across hazards. For example, hurricanes, mudslides, and wildfires show similar effects across countries, while the effects of earthquakes, sandstorms, and droughts vary strongly across countries.

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

The data also includes a resilience index defined at the individual level, combining individual, household, community, and societal resilience factors: www.lrfoundation.org.uk/wrp/world-ri...

Risk perceptions do not seem to change differently for people with low or high resilience.

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

I use hierarchical Bayesian multinomial regression modeling, which allows me to investigate what level of risk perception is different for people with hazard experience.

Importantly, people with hazard experience tend to view climate change as a very serious threat, not just a somewhat serious one!

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

The distinction between individual-level effects & country-level patterns is critical. A recent global study found that country average exposure was not related to policy support, similar to what I found here with risk perception. But individual exposure still matters! www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world - Nature Climate Change

Literature produced inconsistent findings regarding the links between extreme weather events and climate policy support across regions, populations and events. This global study offers a holistic assessment of these relationships and highlights the role of subjective attribution.

www.nature.com

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

I leverage this data source to assess whether experience with different hazards is associated with increased climate risk perception. The individual-level effects are consistent and, for some hazards, comparable to having a university degree! Effects at the country level are small & uncertain

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

I use the World Risk Poll data, which includes information on whether respondents have personally experienced a climate-related hazard in the last five years, whether they perceive climate change as a threat to their country, and a multidimensional resilience indicator. www.lrfoundation.org.uk/wrp

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 1d

🔥 Climate hazard paper published!

Using nationally representative survey data from 142 countries (N = 128,093), I find that people who have experienced a climate-related hazard are more likely to consider climate change a 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵. 🧵

Link: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

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Reposted by Fabian Dablander

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 4d

Greta Thunberg says she is being detained by Israel in cell ‘infested with bedbugs’

Exclusive: Activist tells Swedish officials she has been subjected to harsh treatment, including insufficient food and water Environmental campaigner Greta Thunberg has told Swedish officials she is being subjected to harsh treatment in Israeli custody after her detention and removal from a flotilla carrying aid to Gaza, according to correspondence seen by the Guardian. According to the correspondence, Israeli forces are also reported by another detainee to have taken photographs where Thunberg was allegedly forced to hold flags. The identity of the flags are unknown. Continue reading...

www.theguardian.com

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The Associated Press @apnews.com · 4d

Over 2 million people across Italy have rallied in more than 100 cities for a one-day general strike.

2 million rally in Italy for Gaza as general strike halts key services

Over 2 million people across Italy have rallied in more than 100 cities for a one-day general strike.

bit.ly

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 17d

"In March, the U.N. considered a resolution to establish an International Day of Hope and an International Day of Peaceful Coexistence. On both propositions, the United States voted 'no'".

David Roberts @volts.wtf · 18d

David Wallace-Wells is the best climate journalist working today, arguably the best journalist period, and this is a fantastic summary of where things stand on climate change:

It Isn’t Just the U.S. The Whole World Has Soured on Climate Politics.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Fabian Dablander

George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 18d

Power is the rock on which truth founders. The mainstream media, with a few exceptions, is a single-issue lobby group, whose purpose is to assert the rights of capital.
Here's what I've learnt about the industry in 40 years in journalism.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

I have now been a journalist for 40 years. The forces ranged against my profession have never been so powerful | George Monbiot

Once, I believed that humanity’s problem was an information deficit. Now, I know you can’t speak truth to power if power controls your words, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot

www.theguardian.com

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Dr Samuel Finnerty @samuelfinnerty.bsky.social · 19d

Last week I was at the BPS Social Psych Conference @bps-social-psych.bsky.social in Oxford @ox.ac.uk The theme was Beyond Tribalism—bringing different traditions together organised by @shelleymckeown.bsky.social @swedishprotests.bsky.social @nascherme.bsky.social
Some reflections in a thread 👇

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · Sep 8

We hope that our piece can help inform wider strategic reflections. You can find a more extensive summary on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/posts/fabian...

If you are unfamiliar with Kevin's work, I highly recommend his two insightful books 𝘓𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘗𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 and 𝘈𝘣𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘍𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘭 𝘍𝘶𝘦𝘭𝘴.

🚨 Growing the climate movement by centering transformative adaptation 🚨 We have crossed seven out of nine planetary boundaries and global heating is accelerating, yet climate mobilization remains… | ...

🚨 Growing the climate movement by centering transformative adaptation 🚨 We have crossed seven out of nine planetary boundaries and global heating is accelerating, yet climate mobilization remains far...

www.linkedin.com

Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · Sep 8

🔥Growing the climate movement by centering transformative adaptation

In a new preprint, Kevin Young, @swaziadam.bsky.social, & I advocate for transformative adaptation as a framework to better connect people's material interests with climate change and increase mobilization. osf.io/preprints/so...

Title page and abstract of our new preprint

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Reposted by Fabian Dablander

Zohran Kwame Mamdani @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social · Sep 5

I am once again asking you to stop sending us money.

But we do need your time. ⏰

zohranfornyc.com/events

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · Sep 1

Doing the Lord's work, Julia & Vincent! The marginaleffects package is so damn good, happy I can refer to this paper now in reviews :-)

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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · Aug 25

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).

Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.

A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.

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Reposted by Fabian Dablander

Dr Charlie Gardner @charliejgardner.bsky.social · Jul 31

Social movements play an essential role pushing for action on climate and nature, and it’s now widely recognised that support from scientists can make them more effective

But not everyone can take to the streets or risk arrest

That’s ok – there’s lots we can do in other ways

🧵1/

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Reposted by Fabian Dablander

David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · Jul 30

Motherfucking wind farms…

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · Jul 29

Everything we've made will break, buildings and streets will crumble, and cities will be abandoned. But the CO₂ we emit into the atmosphere will persist for centuries, and the climatic impacts will last longer than human civilization has existed. This is our legacy for the future.

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Ars Technica @arstechnica.com · Jul 25

Mistral’s new “environmental audit” shows how much AI is hurting the planet

Individual prompts don’t cost much, but billions together can have aggregate impact.

arstechnica.com

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · Jul 23

We discuss the implications of our findings for news media, citizens, and activist groups in our open access paper. Check it out! link.springer.com/article/10.1...

For a bit more context, see this LinkedIn post: www.linkedin.com/posts/fabian...

Media coverage of climate activist groups in Germany - Climatic Change

Climate activist groups aim to address climate change by informing citizens about its risks and potential solutions, and by providing a way for citizens to engage in collective action to change policy...

link.springer.com

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · Jul 23

As a side note: We submitted this paper over a year ago, but it was only published today due to a slow review process. In the meantime, Last Generation has disbanded and given rise to two new groups, which is a welcome strategic refocus: theecologist.org/2025/jun/20/...

After the 'Last Generation'

The German climate protest group Letzte Generation is now history. But what will succeed it?

theecologist.org

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